1. 1 The Linked Exchange Rate system of Hong Kong

2. 2 1 April 1993 Exchange Fund Office Hong Kong Monetary Authority Banking Commissioner Office

3. 3 Main Functions  Keeping the Hong Kong dollar stable  Managing the Exchange Fund in a sound and effective way  Promoting the safety and stability of Hong Kong’s banking system  Developing Hong Kong’s financial infrastructure

4. 4 Monetary Policy Objective Currency stability, defined as a stable external exchange value of the currency of Hong Kong, in terms of its exchange rate in the foreign exchange market against the US dollar, at around HK$7.80 to US$1.

5. 5 Importance of Exchange Rate Stability  As an international financial centre, exchange rate volatility affects capital allocation decision of foreign investors  Hong Kong is a small and highly-open economy  As an international trading centre, external trade equals to 4 times GDP

6. 6 US Dollar as the Anchor Currency  Business cycle synchronisation between Hong Kong and the US is the highest  US dollar is the most commonly used currency for international trade and financial transactions  US is Hong Kong’s second largest trading partner

7. 7 Historical Background  In 1982-83, Sino-British talk on the resumption of Hong Kong's sovereignty after 1997 triggered a confidence crisis, leading to sharp depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar  In response, the HK Government established the Linked Exchange Rate system on 17 October 1983  A currency board system

8. 8  Monetary Base fully backed by foreign exchange reserves  Components of Monetary Base ：  Currency in circulation  Aggregate Balance  Exchange Fund Bills and Notes Currency Board system

9. 9 Currency in circulation HKD banknotes issued by the three note-issuing banks are fully backed by USD reserves fixed exchange rate USD HKD Banknotes HK$7.8=US$1

10. 10 Aggregate Balance Sum of clearing accounts maintained by banks with the HKMA = interbank liquidity condition HKMA Bank

11. 11 Exchange Fund Bills and Notes  Direct and unconditional obligations of the HK Government under the Exchange Fund Account  Introduced in March 1990  Tenors of the Bills are 91, 182 and 364 days, while those of the Notes are 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 15 years

12. 12 How does the Linked Exchange Rate system operate?

13. 13 Automatic adjustment mechanism (1) Downward pressure on Hong Kong dollar exchange rate Currency Board buys Hong Kong dollars Monetary Base contracts Interest rate rises Market participants sell Hong Kong dollars Capital outflow Market participants buy or sell fewer Hong Kong dollars because of higher Hong Kong dollar interest rates Hong Kong dollar exchange rate stability

14. 14 Automatic adjustment mechanism (2) Capital inflow 6 Market participants buy Hong Kong dollars Monetary Base expands Currency Board sells Hong Kong dollars Interest rate falls Hong Kong dollar exchange rate stability Upward pressure on Hong Kong dollar exchange rate Market participants sell or buy fewer Hong Kong dollars because of lower Hong Kong dollar interest rates

15. 15 Resilence Against External Shocks

16. 16 Reform measures  September-1998 ( seven measures )  May-2005 ( three refinements)

17. 17 Background on seven technical measures in 1998 Market concerns ：  Asian financial crisis  Rumours of renminbi devaluation, market scepticism on the commitment to the Link  A lot of Hong Kong dollar short- selling activities, tight interbank liquidity and high interest rate volatility

18. 18 Interest rates movement during the Asian Financial Crisis 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 O/N HIBOR 1M HIBOR First-round attack Second-round attack Third-round attack Fourth-round attack Introduction of the seven technical measures (7 Sept) Free floating of Thai baht (2 July)

19. 19 Seven technical measures Introduced in September 1998 to strengthen the Currency Board arrangement Seven technical measures Convertibility Undertaking Discount Window

20. 20 Weak-side Convertibility Undertaking US dollar Hong Kong dollar BankHKMA US$1 = HK$ 7.80 Clarify commitment to the Linked Exchange Rate system

21. 21 Discount Window BankHKMA Banks can use Exchange Fund paper as collateral to arrange repo agreement with the HKMA for liquidity management (4:30 p.m. daily) Avoid excessive interest rate volatility and allows orderly adjustment

22. 22 2002 2003 2004 2005 FX market development in 2002-05 HK$/US$ HKD exchange rate Weak-side Convertibility Undertaking (CU) Triggering of weak-side CU

23. 23 Background on three refinements in 2005  Expectations on renminbi appreciation  Hong Kong’s economic recovery  Depreciation of the US dollar

24. 24 Aggregate Balance HK$ billion Aggregate Balance (exclude interest payments on Exchange Fund paper)

25. 25 HKD & USD interest rates LIBOR HIBOR

26. 26 Impact of easy monetary conditions  Risk of inflation and formation of asset bubble  Destabilising effect associated with realignment of HKD interest rates with USD rates

27. 27 Three refinements Strong-side Convertibility Undertaking Weak-side Convertibility Undertaking Convertibility Zone

28. 28 Three refinements (1) The HKMA undertakes to buy US dollar from banks at HK$7.75/US$1

29. 29 Three refinements (2) Gradually move the weak-side Convertibility Undertaking from 7.80 to 7.85 23/520/6

30. 30 Three refinements (3) Establish a Convertibility Zone, within which the HKMA can conduct discretionary monetary operations 7.70 7.75 7.80 7.85 7.90 7.70 7.75 7.80 7.85 7.90 Convertibility Zone

31. 31 Effects of the three refinements  Remove uncertainty about appreciation potential of the Hong Kong dollar  HKD interest rates closer to USD rates  Strengthen the operation of the Linked Exchange Rate system

32. 32 Hong Kong dollar exchange rate

33. 33 12-month interest rate spreads

34. 34 Conclusion  The Linked Exchange Rate system is a cornerstone for maintaining economic stability  Economic underpinnings  Ample forex reserves  Flexible economic structure  Prudent fiscal policy stance  Sound banking system