MODEL OVERVIEW A spreadsheet based procedure for estimating airtanker initial-attack performance Exceptional precision and flexibility in specifying the spatial distribution of fire starts Exact flight-distance moments are computed and then applied in a user friendly model
COST ESTIMATION EXAMPLE Use of Dobson's data (1965) to estimate the cost of the Canadair CL- 215 for "one-strike initial-attack" as described by Hodgson and Newstead (1978) and McDonald (1979).
DOBSON’S DATA Cost = 1.15 + 0.0891 Dist + 0.0449 Dist 2 Where cost is given in cents per litre of airdropped water and Dist(ance) is the one- way flight distance from the airbase to the fire in 100’s of kilometers
ONE-STRIKE INITIAL-ATTACK In the “one-strike initial-attack” model for skimmer aircraft it is assumed that it will drop water scooped from nearby sources until refueling becomes necessary thus ending initial-attack by that particular aircraft.
A Microsoft Excel program is used to analyze the airtanker initial-attack model - Existing airbases can be evaluated - The optimal airbase location can be identified - Constrained optimization of airbase location may be done MODEL ANALYSIS
GENERATING MODEL RESULTS Define the regions with bounding line segments Assign fire occurrence probabilities to each region Locate the airbase if appropriate Run the Excel program and examine results Enter the constraint(s) if appropriate 6
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES - Generates exact moments of the flight-distance distribution - Models areas, lines and points as possible fire-start locations - Provides exceptionally fast computational speeds including optimization - Employs a commonly available and familiar spreadsheet program - Offers high internal consistency due to its programming simplicity - Is solidly based on analytical procedures vetted through refereed-journal articles
MODEL DEVELOPMENT - NEXT PHASE Front-end for GIS data importing Excel macros for data formatting Scaled-up proof-of-concept run
REFERENCES CITED 1. Dobson, N.R. 1965. "The economics of the Canadair CL-215 in the waterbomber and passenger transport roles." Canadair Ltd., Montreal, Quebec. OER-452. 13 p. 2. Hodgson, M.J. and R.G. Newstead. 1978. “Location-allocation models for one-strike initial attack of forest fires by airtankers.” Can. J. For. Res. 8(2):145-154. 3. McDonald, C.S. 1979. “Air tankers in Alberta.” In: Proceedings of the International Fire Management Workshop, Oct. 31 – Nov. 1, 1978. D. Quintilio (ed.), Edmonton, Alberta. Northern Forest Research Centre Information Report NOR-X-215. 89 p.