1. Business Scenario EXTERNAL FACTORS : 1.Weather 2.Buying Power 3.Awareness of Healthy Living Faktor relevan Awareness TinggiSedangRendah Cuaca Sesuai Perkiraan Daya Beli Tinggi o Sedang Rendah Hampir sesuai perkiraan Tinggi Sedang ∆ Rendah Buruk Tinggi Sedang Rendah x

2. PREDICTION OF COMPETITION CONDITION IN EACH SCENARIO Scenario Optimistic : Demand optimal  thread of new entry increase  demand of subtitute product decrease  buyer bargaining leverage increase  supplier bargaining leverage increase  rivalry intensity increase. Scenario Most Likely : Demand as expected  new entry increase but not significant  low thread of substitute product  buyer and supplier bargaining power slightly increase  rivalry intensity will increase because every player will try to enhance their strategy. Scenario Pesimisstic : Demand decrease  low thread of new entry  thread of substitute product increase  supplier bargaining power decrease  rivalry intensity increase because every player will try to survive.

3. COMPETITOR REACTION IN EACH SCENARIO SCENARIO OPTIMISTIC : STRATEGIC POOL A : INCREASE PRODUCTION & AVAIBILITY STRATEGIC POOL B : INCREASE PRODUCTION, ADDING MORE AGENT / DISTRIBUTOR AND EXPANDING DISTRIBUTION AREA. KEL STRATEGIS C : INCREASE PRODUCTION, IMPROVED PRODUCT QUALITY AND SERVICE AND EXPANDING DISTRIBUTION AREA. SKENARIO MOST LIKELY : KEL STRATEGIS A : TRYING TO BE MORE EFFICIENT, LEVELING THEIR PRODUCTION WITH DEMAND AND OPTIMIZING COMMUNITY NETWORK. KEL STRATEGIS B : KEEP GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH AGENT / DISTRIBUTOR KEL STRATEGIS C : DEFEND EFFICIENCY IN PRODUCTION SYSTEM AND DISTRIBUTION TO RETAIN POSITIF MARGIN. SKENARIO OPTIMIS : KEL STRATEGIS A : MAXIMIZING SERVICE TO RETAIN CUSTOMER. KEL STRATEGIS B : ONLY COOPERATE WITH PRODUCTIVE AGENT / DISTRIBUTOR. KEL STRATEGIS C : CUT PRODUCTION, OPERATIONAL AND MARKETING COST.

4. KEY SUCCES FACTORS