1. Dinamika Spatial PPS Ilmu Geografi 2007

2. Hidup dari lingkungan Berburu dan bertani Berdagang / barter Berdagang / transaksi benda berharga (uang) Export/ import Perdagangan regional baru Apalagi yang akan datang ? terkonvergnsi Jaman imperialisme………….... Imperialisme gaya baru globalisasi Tata dunia baru (metanasional)

3. Long Wave Cycles of Innovation 17851845190019501990 1 st Wave2 nd Wave3 rd Wave4 th Wave5 th Wave Water power Textiles Iron Steam Rail Steel Electricity Chemicals Internal-combustion engine Petrochemicals Electronics Aviation Digital networks Software New Media 60 years55 years50 years40 years30 years Pace of innovation

4. Kumulatif Sumbangan Moda Transportasi terhadap Peluang Ekonomis Kuda Kapal Laut Kapal Penyeberangan Kereta Api Jalan darat Udara Telekomunikasi 1750177518001825185018751900192519501975200020252050 Peluang Ekonomis Revolusi Industrial Produksi Massal Globalisasi

5. Sectors of the Economy Primary Secondary Tertiary Quaternary Time Percent of Workforce

6. Spatial dynamic systems f ( I (t n ))... F F f ( I (t) )f ( I (t+2) )f ( I (t+1) ) Spatial dynamic systems simulates spatio-temporal processes in which the state of a location, on the Earth´s surface, changes over time, due to some physical phenomena.

7. t p - 20 t p - 10 tptp calibration t p + 10 Forecast Dynamic spatial models fonte: Almeida et al (2003)

8. Spatial dynamic system elements Transition Rules FuzzyL(Clue) Expander(Dinâmica) LocalMean (Riks) Models discrete hybrid continuous Dinâmica Riks Clue

9. Space representation Neighborhood modelo celular Spatial dynamic system elements uniform proprieties regular structure proximitry matrix non stationary

10. Space-time modeling: issues for current methods Look at change over time at several localities Look at change across space for several moments in time

11. t1 t2 t3 Expansion Diffusion t1 t2 t3 Relocation Diffusion Combination of Expansion and Relocation

12. Batas funsional kota Batas administrasi Under-boundedOver-bounded True-bounded

13. Space-time modeling: issues for current methods

14. M. Paleo U. Paleo Epipaleo Late Neol Early Neol

15. Space-time modeling: issues for current methods High resolution diachronic record in one or a few sitesunwarranted regional generalization across variable space High resolution spatial record for a few time periodspast as a sequence of snapshots with change happening invisibly between (or stepwise change) Conceptualizing rich socioecological variation across space and complex dynamics through time desirable but difficult with current methods

16. Future directions in space-time modeling Goals for study of long-term dynamics of human ecology High resolution models –spatial –chronological Link dynamically so that –state of modeled ecosystem at any given time (t) is in part a function of ecosystem at prior time (t-1) and affects future state (t+1) –State of modeled ecosystem at any given locale is in part a function of state in surrounding locales Test against archaeo-ecological record

17. Future directions in space-time modeling: an example Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics Project Project locations at opposite ends of Mediterranean Basin –Encompasses wide range of ecological & social variation –Tracks initial spread of agriculture & replacement of foraging systems –Different trajectories to the appearance of social complexity and urbanism

18. Dynamic space-time modeling 3 interlinked modeling environments in GIS platform –Potential landscape model –Reference landscape chronosequence –Agropastoral socioecology model Vegetation modeling: multi-yr. steps Vegetation modeling: multi-yr. steps Potential landscap e model Terrain modeling: multi-yr. steps Terrain modeling: multi-yr. steps Climate model (temp&precip) Climate model (temp&precip) Paleo- terrains (DEM’s) Paleo- terrains (DEM’s) Referenc e landscap e chronose q. Archeological data Archeological data Geological data Geological data Paleobotanical data Paleobotanical data Veg. edaphic parameters Veg. edaphic parameters Paleo- vegetation Paleo- vegetation Prehistoric settlement & landuse Prehistoric settlement & landuse Modern DEM Modern DEM Agropast oral socioecol ogy model Settlement & landuse modeling Settlement & landuse modeling Agent Modeling Agent Modeling Terrain modeling: multi-yr. steps Terrain modeling: multi-yr. steps Vegetation modeling: multi-yr. steps Vegetation modeling: multi-yr. steps Climate model (temp&precip) Climate model (temp&precip) Initial state & validation at various stages Initial state & validation at various stages

19. Dynamic space-time modeling Potential landscape model: surface processes and landcover Vegetation modeling: multi-yr. steps Vegetation modeling: multi-yr. steps Potential landscape model Terrain modeling: multi-yr. steps Terrain modeling: multi-yr. steps Climate model (temp&precip) Climate model (temp&precip)

20. Paleo- terrains (DEM’s) Paleo- terrains (DEM’s) Reference landscape chronoseq. Archeological data Archeological data Geological data Geological data Paleobotanical data Paleobotanical data Veg. edaphic parameters Veg. edaphic parameters Paleo- vegetation Paleo- vegetation Prehistoric settlement & landuse Prehistoric settlement & landuse Modern DEM Modern DEM Dynamic space-time modeling Reference landscape chronosequence: surface processes and landcover

21. Settlement Establish Shrink/grow Abandon Location Settlement Establish Shrink/grow Abandon Location Landuse Location/extent Cultivation (which crops) Pasture (which animals) Landuse Location/extent Cultivation (which crops) Pasture (which animals) Decision Algorithms Decision Algorithms Information Inputs Temp. extremes Precip. amt & dist Terrain characteristics Current vegetation Information Inputs Temp. extremes Precip. amt & dist Terrain characteristics Current vegetation Settlement & landuse impacts on terrain & vegetation Settlement & landuse impacts on terrain & vegetation Agent Modeling Dynamic space-time modeling Human landuse: agent simulation

22. Dynamic space-time modeling Climate surface processes & landcover agent simulation Landscape socioecology Settlement & landuse modeling Settlement & landuse modeling Agent Modeling Agent Modeling Terrain modeling: multi-yr. steps Terrain modeling: multi-yr. steps Vegetation modeling: multi-yr. steps Vegetation modeling: multi-yr. steps Climate model (temp&precip) Climate model (temp&precip) Polop Valley Landuse Intensity M. Paleolithicto Neolithic II Agropastoral socioecology model

26. Spatial Dynamic Driven by : PopulationPopulation Economic activitiesEconomic activities TechnologyTechnology etcetc

27. Materi Spatial Dynamic Space – time Spatial changing dan changing overtime Spatial Thinking System Dynamic (1): Intro System Dynamic (2): Latihan Cases: Spatial Dynamic