1. Dropouts and Dropout Prevention Jennifer Dounay Education Commission of the States Presentation to Oklahoma Senate Education Committee Oklahoma City, OK October 29, 2007

2. Education Commission of the States About ECS 50-state education compact est’d 1965 Nonpartisan, nonprofit Serves all state-level education policymakers and their staffs: –Governors –Legislators –State board members –State superintendents –SHEEOs and higher education boards

3. Education Commission of the States Overview of Presentation National perspective on dropouts Implications of dropping out What the research says What states are doing

4. Education Commission of the States Dropouts: A National Perspective Class of 2007: 70% graduation rate 30% spread b/w highest, lowest states –Utah: 83.8% –South Carolina: 53.8% 1.23 million dropouts b/w 2003-04 9 th graders and 2006-07 12 th graders Minority students = more than half of all dropouts Females, regardless of race, more likely HS grads 9 th grade = 1/3 of dropouts Source: Education Week, 2007 Diplomas Count

5. Education Commission of the States The Freshman Pipeline

6. Education Commission of the States Caveats about Dropout/Graduation Rate Data State-reported data can be faulty –Different means of calculating = different results –Incomplete data systems –Variation in definition of “dropout” –Human error Audits have identified higher- than-reported dropout rates in states

7. Education Commission of the States Dropping Out and Employment/Income Dropouts more likely to be unemployed or out of labor force Current average annual earnings of dropout = $19,400 –Federal poverty level = $19,971 for family of four Average annual earnings vary by race/gender HS dropout, over lifetime, earns $260,000 less than HS grad and $1 million less than college grad U.S. Chamber of Commerce: 90% of fastest-growing jobs need postsec.

8. Education Commission of the States Job Opportunities: Out of the Zone Zone 1: Median income: $12, 638 (32% HS dropouts, 37% HS grads) Zone 2: Median income: $24,461 (16% HS dropouts, 38% HS grads) Zone 3: Median income: $35,672 (just 9% HS dropouts, 27% HS grads, 37% some college) More than 76 million jobs in U.S. in zones 3-5

9. Education Commission of the States Tax Revenues and Dropouts HS grad = average extra $139,100 in lifetime tax payments Class of 2004 dropouts = will cost U.S. over $325 billion in lost wages, taxes

10. Education Commission of the States Implications of Dropping Out: Incarceration Dropouts comprise: 75% of state prison inmates 69% of jail inmates Almost 59% of federal inmates Numbers entering state prison w/o diploma rose in 1990s Inmates cite different reasons for dropping out, compared to general population

11. Education Commission of the States Reducing Crime and Costs by Reducing Dropouts Average lifetime saving per add’l HS grad = $26,600 Reduced costs in: –Policing/trials/sentencing –Incarceration –Victim medical care/lost tax revenues –Gov’t crime prevention agencies 5% increase in male HS grad. rates = $5 billion in incarceration costs

12. Education Commission of the States Dropping Out and Health Link between more school, life expectancy U.S. findings = findings in Sweden, Denmark, Wales, England High school graduation linked to lower medical care time & expenses Higher levels of parent learning = better infant, children health. –Infant mortality rates –Low birth weights

13. Education Commission of the States Dropouts and Public Health Costs More education = < need for Medicaid Medicaid savings/grad –$800/year AA woman –$900/year Hispanic woman Average lifetime savings per HS grad = $40,500

14. Education Commission of the States Dropouts and Welfare Feds = $168 billion/year States = $25 billion/year on: –Cash aid –Food benefits –Housing aid –Energy aid –Training TANF: Approx. 50% dropouts Disproportionately –Female –Minority Food stamps over lifetime: –64% of adult dropouts –38% HS grads

15. Education Commission of the States Welfare Cost Savings of HS Grads HS Grads: TANF—40% less likely Housing assistance—1% less likely Food stamps—19% less likely Some college: TANF—62% less likely Housing assistance—35% less likely Food stamps—54% less likely

16. Education Commission of the States Cost/Benefit of New Grads Spending an additional $82K per new HS grad = $209K higher gov’t revenues ($127K net benefit) Net benefit = increased tax rev., reduced gov’t costs Total $45 billion lifetime savings for ONE COHORT 20-yr.-olds

17. Education Commission of the States Dropping Out and Teen Pregnancy 26% of all dropouts, 1/3 female dropouts are teen parents Fewer than 1/3 of mothers before 18 earn HS diploma (1.5% earn college degree by 30) Students with low academic achievement 2x as likely to become parents by grade 12 Having teenage mother increases odds of dropping out

18. Education Commission of the States Dropping Out and Divorce 71% of dropouts come from fatherless homes Link between dropping out and future divorce College-ed. less likely to divorce 1 st graders with high stress at home (death, divorce, family moves) = elevated dropout risk Low SES 1 st graders w/ 2 parents at home = moderated dropout risk

19. Education Commission of the States What Does the Research Say? On-track in grade 9 Math curriculum School size Math coursetaking/achievement grade 9 Indicators as early as grade 6 Student-teacher relationships

20. Education Commission of the States “What Matters for Staying on Track and Graduating in Chicago Public High Schools” Course failures matter Attendance matters most What else matters: –Student effort –Relationships –Gender/race –“The Engagement Factor” Programmatic approaches rarely effective Use data to target needs

21. Education Commission of the States What Do Dropouts Say? Top 5 Reasons for Leaving School: –Classes not interesting: 47% –Missed too many days, couldn’t catch up: 43% –Spent time w/people not interested in school: 42% –Had too much freedom and not enough rules in my life: 38% –Was failing in school: 35%

22. Education Commission of the States What Might Have Kept Them in School Making content more relevant to their lives –81%: “Real-world learning” via internships, service learning Better teachers who keep class interesting: 81% Smaller classes: 75% More after-school tutoring, extra help: 70% More parental involvement: 70% Better communication b/w parents/school: 71%

23. Education Commission of the States Impact of Parental Awareness

24. Education Commission of the States Dropout Prevention: What States Are Doing Increasing rigor of HS curriculum Student accountability Graduation plans/career “majors” Remediation Early college high schools Small schools/small learning communities Alternative pathways to standard diploma Middle grades efforts Parental involvement Ninth grade initiatives

25. Education Commission of the States Increasing Rigor Supported by research OK Class of 2010: part of nat’l trend Too soon to tell for state efforts Local efforts (San Jose, CA) encouraging

26. Education Commission of the States Student Accountability Upper compulsory school age –Gets at “too much freedom” cited by dropouts No pass/no drive: 27 states No pass/no play: 23 states Upper statutory age: 21 in 31 states Learnfare

27. Education Commission of the States Graduation Plans/Career Majors OK: Variation on a theme Add relevance Not aware of research base

28. Education Commission of the States Remediation Districts req’d to provide/student req’d to attend Individual graduation plans for at-risk students State requires districts to evaluate: 10 states Supported by research and dropouts themselves

29. Education Commission of the States Early College High Schools Combine HS w/Associate’s Degree (60 credits) Targeted to high minority and/or high poverty –2/3 African American or Latino –60% free/reduced lunch –Center for Native Education: 18 sites in AK, CA, OR, WA State-level policies in 5 states (CO, NC, PA, TN, TX) Early returns positive: –90%+ attendance rates –Promotion rates above 90%

30. Education Commission of the States Small Schools/Small Learning Communities More local than state-level response Research and dropouts’ experience support NV: HS of 1,200+ students must provide SLCs CA: Financial incentives FL: –“Guiding principle” in each HS improvement plan –State policy establishes SLC models of career/professional academies –District policy must encourage any not-small school to divide into schools-within-a-school

31. Education Commission of the States Alternative Pathways to Standard Diploma KY: Credit recovery through virtual school IN: School Flex program FL: Districts must provide: –Alternative means of showing competency –Creative/flexible scheduling –Credit recovery courses, intensive math/reading intervention courses based on FCAT scores FL: Dept. to provide more applied, integrated courses NV: Earn HS credits while working toward HS promotion

32. Education Commission of the States Middle Grades Efforts FL, KY: Career awareness/planning as early as grade 6 FL: Middle grades course promotion policies FL: Intensive reading, math remediation for low FCAT scorers NV: Include grade 6-8 dropout rates in state board report MS: Pilot on building relationships, planning for future, importance of staying in school

33. Education Commission of the States Parental Involvement Addresses research, dropouts’ suggestions Areas of policy: –Developing formal parent involvement policy –Communicating academic expectations to parents –Recognizing, accommodating parent needs –Building staff capacity to engage with parents –Building parent capacity to engage with fellow parents, staff, and community members –Developing success benchmarks and evaluating impact

34. Education Commission of the States Ninth Grade Initiatives NV: SLCs in large high schools: –Designate separate grade 9 area –Keep data on credits earned, attendance, truancy, other at-risk indicators –Offer timely ID of grade 9 student needs, i.e., remediation, counseling –Increase parental involvement at grade 9 –Assign guidance counselors, 1+ licensed administrator, adult mentors for 9 th graders

35. Education Commission of the States Last but Not Least Dropping back in Upper statutory age Opportunities to earn HS diploma at CC Flexible scheduling Career/next steps planning

36. Education Commission of the States Want to Learn More? ECS Research Studies Database: www.ecs.org/rswww.ecs.org/rs ECS Remediation Database: www.ecs.org > HS Databases www.ecs.org The Costs and Benefits of an Excellent Education for All of America’s Children http://www.cbcse.org/modules/download_gallery/dlc.php?file=35 http://www.cbcse.org/modules/download_gallery/dlc.php?file=35 Coming soon! ECS database and policy brief on early college high schools Coming soon! ECS policy brief on parental involvement at the HS level

37. Education Commission of the States jdounay@ecs.org 303.299.3689