1. supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Landings Obligation EIA John Anderson Senior Economist

2. supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future New evidence base and analytical output Comprehensive Economic Impact Assessment (EIA) of a move from status quo fisheries management measures to various potential scenarios under the new CFP Landings Obligation (LO). The analysis aims to provide: 1.An overall assessment of the likely new equilibrium ‘balance’ situation between fleet capacity, onshore capacity, and the new fishing opportunities available under the LO 2.Sufficient evidence base for input into the formulation of adequate regional (demersal) discard plans that will need to be submitted to COM in mid-2015 3.Identification of key challenges for industry and government

3. supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future

4. Catching sector Economic performance estimates for individual fleet segments under the LO, taking into account potential for quota trading plus the various flexibilities and exemptions Areas of investigation will include: Analysis of ‘choke’ species and affected fleet segments after ‘uplift’ Assessment of the potential for quota trading to avoid choke scenarios De minimis – potential for application at fleet segment level Implications of altering the ordering of application of quota leasing, flexibility and exemption mechanisms Compatibility issues with the UK FQA system: a) Allocation within the UK to DA’s and DA’s to PO’s, U10m and non-sector etc b) Conversion factors for 9% flex (cod equivalents, tonnage, value etc) c) Phased introduction for target vs. non target species for different fleets

5. supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Onshore sector Onshore IA to take place once LO fishing opportunities established in the fleet IA. Assessment will focus on changes in: Species types (i.e. new diverse species) and volumes (i.e. potential for new markets) Size and quality of fish landed, market prices Timing, continuity and geographical location of landings - ability to meet status quo demand Number, scale, location, structure and viability of onshore businesses Imports and infrastructure Opportunities for market development and identification of key barriers to development

6. supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Outline of tasks / work packages Task 1: Fleet segmentation and status quo analysis - UNDERWAY Task 2: Choke analysis Task 3: Consult on likely management responses / approach to dealing with choke issues Task 4: Consult on likely responses of vessel owners Task 5: EIA of LO on catching sector - based on outcome of tasks 1-4 Task 6: Onshore / processing status quo analysis – UNDERWAY Task 7: Consult on likely routes to market for new volumes and species Task 8: EIA of LO on onshore sector Task 9: Reporting – FEBRUARY 2015

7. supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Thoughts / comments / suggestions welcome john.anderson@seafish.co.uk 0131 524 8662