1. Jorge Sánchez-Sesma Marco Antonio Sosa Chiñas* IPWG, October 2004, Monterey, California, USA EPPrePMex, A Real-time Rainfall Estimation System Based on GOES-IR Satellite Imagery

2. Conclusions

3. Introduction

4. Theory and Techniques u Georeference u (IR Brightness)-(Cloud Top Temperature) Relationship u The Convective and Stratiform Technique (CST) u Storm Localization and Assesment

5. Georeference

7. Relationship T-B

8. Convective and Stratiform Technique (CST) u Detection of Convective, stratiform and cirrus clouds  T min < 253°K  For each convective storm its intensity, r C, is: u Over an area u Where r C = r C0 - r C1 T C

9. Convective and Stratiform Technique (CST) (Storm radius)-(Cloud top temperature) A Relationship for Mexico

10. Implementation u Algorithm u Images u Products u Webpage

11. Operational Results: Pseudo-imagery A:IR Images B:Intensity P-Image C:Acumulated P-Image CB A

12. Operational Results : Numerical Reports u For basins and sites Lluvia acumulada promedio de 10051503.ACU en las regiones de cuencas.pol Región PromedioMillones de m3 Lerma - Santiago 1.661 226.489 Balsas 7.625 899.673 Guerrero - Costa 1.416 19.776 Pinotepa 21.165 822.995 Huatulco 20.368 225.329 Tehuantepec 29.847 488.984 Chiapas - Pacífico 2.248 27.191 Zacatecas - Nuevo León - San Luis Potosí 0.054 4.850 Tamaulipas 0.000 0.000 Huasteca 10.020 972.349 Pánuco 40.112 1081.230 Papaloapan 42.953 2510.730 Istmo - Golfo 11.258 331.346 Grijalva 1.463 150.828 Campeche 0.052 1.276.. Promedio en la proximidad de puntos, tomado de 10051503.ACU Distancia para promedio: 7 Nombre Long. Lat. Prom. Centro Min. Max... #1022 VER Jalapa -96.920 19.550 39.50 34.00 30.75 45.00 #1023 VER La Cangrejera -94.900 17.980 17.08 28.25 8.12 29.25 #1024 VER La Joya -97.620 20.560 34.41 39.25 15.25 39.25 #1025 VER Las Perlas -94.650 17.770 0.56 1.00 0.00 1.00 #1026 VER Los Hules -98.270 21.160 17.97 15.62 15.62 21.38 #1027 VER Martinez De La Torre -97.050 20.067 70.81 70.62 70.62 71.12 #1028 VER Mizantla -96.970 20.170 71.94 72.00 71.00 72.62 #1029 VER Minzapan -96.890 20.000 71.92 72.25 71.38 72.38 #1030 VER Rio Grande -94.370 17.280 3.22 3.25 3.12 3.25 #1031 VER Orizaba -97.100 18.850 21.92 21.62 13.50 28.12 #1032 VER Oxtlapa -97.100 19.350 33.47 24.62 14.25 45.88 #1033 VER Panuco -98.170 20.510 29.07 32.50 24.25 33.25..

13. Graphical Binnacle u A graphical binnacle displays the processed images. Each dot indicate a processed image and its size indicates the number of storms.

14. Web page u A web page was designed and instaled in the same server nimbus, in which EPPrePMex is running in IMTA´s Offices. u Its adress is http://nimbus.imta.mxhttp://nimbus.imta.mx u It is working since the summer 1999.

15. Evaluation u NOAA comparison 1998-1999 u Site comparison 1997-2002 u Basin comparison 1997-2002

16. Evaluation u In 1998 the NOAA has made a comparison of estimated (Autoestimator and EPPrePMex) and measured daily accumulated rainfalls for Southern Texas

17. Evaluation Correlation between EPPrePMex estimations & RFCwide stations measurements of daily rainfall for July-Oct 1999

18. Evaluation Correlation between EPPrePMex estimations & NW Mexico stations measurements of daily rainfall for July-Oct 1998

19. Rainfall measurements made by the operational hydrological network Evaluation

20. Measured (gage)Estimated (GOES satellite) Evaluation A B A’ B’ INCOMPATIBLE COMPATIBLE

21. Evaluation

24. Evaluation (Bias correction)

25. Evaluation

27. Present Research u Operational rainfall estimation based of GOES-12 and GOES-10, radars and weather stations u Real-time Calibration of rainfall estimation with satellites and radar u Detection and analysis of MCC u Clasification of storms u Calibration of GOES based estimation with other satellites (Tiros, SSMI, TRMM, Acqua, etc). u Integration with modern (distributed) hydrological models (MIT and others)

28. GOES-12 complemented with GOES-10 During eclipses GOES-10 imagery will complement GOES-12.

29. GOES-12 complemented with Radar Rainfall Intensity (Radar) 6 hour animation: 17:45 a 23:45 Z Accumulated Rainfall (Satellite) 3 hours: 18:00 a 21:00 Z

30. Storm Development Stage

31. Clasification of Storms

32. Conclusions

33. The End ¡Thank you very much!