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Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Engineers Australia Northern Rivers Group Ballina.

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Presentation on theme: "Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Engineers Australia Northern Rivers Group Ballina."— Presentation transcript:

1 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Engineers Australia Northern Rivers Group Ballina “Australian power - where to by 2050?” Martin Thomas AM FTSE HonFIEAust HonFAIE 8 September 2012

2 Infrastructure on the cliff edge Australia is facing a potential monumental infrastructure disaster as the politicians dither with long-term carbon questions and undertake speculative research on coal technologies. Unless someone starts actually making hard decisions now, fasten your safety belts for a very large rise in power prices in the eastern states, which will flow into inflation and interest rates. COMMENTARY R OBERT G OTTLIEBSEN 15 Jul 2009 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"

3 G8 leaders tighten carbon targets Leaders of the G8 have agreed to a goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with developed countries achieving an 80% reduction by then. Leaders of the G8 have agreed to a goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with developed countries achieving an 80% reduction by then. Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"

4 Australian candidate generation technologies to 2050 CoalCoal Oil and gasOil and gas NuclearNuclear GeothermalGeothermal HydroHydro Solar Wind Other renewables Distributed energy and energy storage

5 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Coal the bad news Mines can sterilise huge arable land areasMines can sterilise huge arable land areas Substantial carbon and other emissions (viz particulates, NOx and SOx)Substantial carbon and other emissions (viz particulates, NOx and SOx) CCS technically promising but costly, huge efficiency penalty, and yet to be proven at scaleCCS technically promising but costly, huge efficiency penalty, and yet to be proven at scale Heavy carbon footprint without CCSHeavy carbon footprint without CCS Significant ash disposal & retention problemsSignificant ash disposal & retention problems Significant water demand for cooling (but can use dry cooling – ie fan cooled radiators)Significant water demand for cooling (but can use dry cooling – ie fan cooled radiators)

6 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Coal the good news Black and brown resources vast and easily wonBlack and brown resources vast and easily won LCOE (Black coal, no CCS) ~ $/MWhLCOE (Black coal, no CCS) ~ $/MWh Technologies (mining, materials handling, preparation, combustion, gas cleanup, ash disposal) proven strong Australian skillsTechnologies (mining, materials handling, preparation, combustion, gas cleanup, ash disposal) proven strong Australian skills Good for base load generation - capacity factors typically >90%Good for base load generation - capacity factors typically >90% Generation technology conventional well provenGeneration technology conventional well proven Huge RD&D program promises further gains (IGCC, oxy-firing, CCS, etc)Huge RD&D program promises further gains (IGCC, oxy-firing, CCS, etc) Strong Australian engineering capabilityStrong Australian engineering capability

7 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Coal power station

8 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Coal mines for power

9 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Oil, natural gas, shale gas and coal seam gas - the bad news High and rising fuel costs (both oil and gas) – as Oz LNG rises to world parityHigh and rising fuel costs (both oil and gas) – as Oz LNG rises to world parity NoisyNoisy High maintenance costsHigh maintenance costs

10 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Oil, natural gas, shale gas and coal seam gas - the good news Diesel and gas turbine plant - well proven, reliable, numerous suppliers, good service back upDiesel and gas turbine plant - well proven, reliable, numerous suppliers, good service back up Diesel specific capex ~ $/kWDiesel specific capex ~ $/kW OC gas turbine capex ~ $/kWOC gas turbine capex ~ $/kW LCOE (CCGT, no CCS) ~ $/MWhLCOE (CCGT, no CCS) ~ $/MWh Short construction timesShort construction times Carbon footprint < coalCarbon footprint < coal Fast load followingFast load following

11 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Nuclear the bad news Technology still very costly ~ 5,000-6,000$/kWTechnology still very costly ~ 5,000-6,000$/kW Australian regulatory environment inadequateAustralian regulatory environment inadequate Shortage of suitably qualified Australian engineers and scientistsShortage of suitably qualified Australian engineers and scientists Significant water demand for cooling (but can use dry cooling – ie fan cooled radiators)Significant water demand for cooling (but can use dry cooling – ie fan cooled radiators) Risks with older reactors (eg TMI 1979, Chernobyl 1986, and Fukushima 2011)Risks with older reactors (eg TMI 1979, Chernobyl 1986, and Fukushima 2011) Australian public has valid concerns on:Australian public has valid concerns on: –Safety of spent fuel disposal, –Weapons proliferation, and –NIMBY siting issues

12 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Nuclear the good news (1) Vast Australian uranium resources (~40% world’s low cost supplies and growing)Vast Australian uranium resources (~40% world’s low cost supplies and growing) ANSTO Lucas Heights research reactor and nuclear medicine experienceANSTO Lucas Heights research reactor and nuclear medicine experience Technologies (mining, enrichment, reactors, spent fuel management and permanent disposal) internationally provenTechnologies (mining, enrichment, reactors, spent fuel management and permanent disposal) internationally proven Australia strong in hard rock mining and minerals processingAustralia strong in hard rock mining and minerals processing Australia geologically stable with vast regions of minimal population for safe waste disposalAustralia geologically stable with vast regions of minimal population for safe waste disposal

13 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Nuclear the good news (2) Nuclear well suited to base load generation - capacity factors typically >90% - used for ~14% of world’s electricity generationNuclear well suited to base load generation - capacity factors typically >90% - used for ~14% of world’s electricity generation LCOE ~ $/MWh - includes waste disposal and decommissioning costsLCOE ~ $/MWh - includes waste disposal and decommissioning costs Generation III and III+ reactors improved, saferGeneration III and III+ reactors improved, safer Generation IV reactors inherently safe - 60 times energy recovery from uranium fuelGeneration IV reactors inherently safe - 60 times energy recovery from uranium fuel Worldwide RD&D program promises further gainsWorldwide RD&D program promises further gains Strong Australian engineering capabilityStrong Australian engineering capability Small specific power footprintSmall specific power footprint Strong safety record cf alternativesStrong safety record cf alternatives Emerging potential for thorium fuelEmerging potential for thorium fuel

14 Cruas Meysse Nuclear Power Station, Montelimar, France – 4 X 900MW Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"

15 Nuclear power – Generation III+

16 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Nuclear fuel pellet energy equivalent to: 1t coal = 3bbls oil = 481m 3 natural gas

17 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Nuclear – spent fuel repository

18 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Nuclear – is fusion the future? ITER - Cadarache, France

19 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Geothermal the bad news Hot fractured rock (HFR) technology not yet fully provenHot fractured rock (HFR) technology not yet fully proven Technology still very costly ~ 6,000- 8,000$/kW - and yet to be commercialisedTechnology still very costly ~ 6,000- 8,000$/kW - and yet to be commercialised Geothermal resources generally remote from grid and load centres, requiring substantial new transmission lines and hence transmission lossesGeothermal resources generally remote from grid and load centres, requiring substantial new transmission lines and hence transmission losses

20 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Geothermal the good news Huge resource at °C (>1,000 years for Australia) at 3-5km depth in Central AustraliaHuge resource at °C (>1,000 years for Australia) at 3-5km depth in Central Australia Drilling technology well proven in oil industryDrilling technology well proven in oil industry Generation technology (conversion of heat to electricity) well provenGeneration technology (conversion of heat to electricity) well proven LCOE ~ $/MWh at plant siteLCOE ~ $/MWh at plant site Negligible carbon or other emissionsNegligible carbon or other emissions Very low water demandVery low water demand Good use of real estateGood use of real estate

21 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Geothermal technologies

22 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Hydro the bad news High to very high capex depending on scheme ~ 3,000-10,000$/kWHigh to very high capex depending on scheme ~ 3,000-10,000$/kW Can pose significant environmental issuesCan pose significant environmental issues Dependent on reliable rainfallDependent on reliable rainfall Limited remaining Australian resourceLimited remaining Australian resource Safety can be questionable (Siberia 2009 – 76 dead - huge losses)Safety can be questionable (Siberia 2009 – 76 dead - huge losses)

23 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Hydro the good news Primary energy freePrimary energy free Easy load following and meeting system peaksEasy load following and meeting system peaks Can provide pumped storage for load levellingCan provide pumped storage for load levelling Can combine with irrigation and flood controlCan combine with irrigation and flood control Environmental and recreational benefits goodEnvironmental and recreational benefits good Micro-hydro well suited to developing countriesMicro-hydro well suited to developing countries

24 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Hydro power

25 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Solar photovoltaics (PV) the bad news Technology still costly ~ 5,000-6,500$/kWpTechnology still costly ~ 5,000-6,500$/kWp LCOE high but falling ~ $/MWhLCOE high but falling ~ $/MWh Capacity factor limited ~ 15-20% so unsuited to base load demand (ie industry)Capacity factor limited ~ 15-20% so unsuited to base load demand (ie industry) Power conditioning expensive and complexPower conditioning expensive and complex Energy storage expensive, alternatively needs standby (diesel, hydro or mains)Energy storage expensive, alternatively needs standby (diesel, hydro or mains) Materials (silicon, lead, etc) difficult to dispose of sustainablyMaterials (silicon, lead, etc) difficult to dispose of sustainably Poor use of real estate (unless rooftop) – although under some ‘sheep may safely graze’Poor use of real estate (unless rooftop) – although under some ‘sheep may safely graze’

26 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Solar photovoltaics (PV) the good news Free primary energy – the sunFree primary energy – the sun Technology cost falling with advancing RD&D – target ~ 1,000-2,000$/kWpTechnology cost falling with advancing RD&D – target ~ 1,000-2,000$/kWp “Feed-in” tariffs helpful, but declining“Feed-in” tariffs helpful, but declining Emerging technologies include thin film, SLIVER, concentrating PV, tracking PVEmerging technologies include thin film, SLIVER, concentrating PV, tracking PV Power conditioning and storage costs falling, lives extending, efficiencies improving (world record 43%!), materials increasingly benignPower conditioning and storage costs falling, lives extending, efficiencies improving (world record 43%!), materials increasingly benign Negligible carbon or other emissionsNegligible carbon or other emissions Zero water demandZero water demand

27 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Photovoltaics (PV) technology options Flat plate crystalline Si modules (local and imported cells)Flat plate crystalline Si modules (local and imported cells) –Conventional – efficiency 12-18%, reliable, expensive Thin film Si modules (UNSW Green cells)Thin film Si modules (UNSW Green cells) –State of the art – very expensive, efficiencies to 25% SLIVER cells (ANU Blakers cells)SLIVER cells (ANU Blakers cells) –State of the art – expensive, efficiencies >19% quoted Concentrating PV (Solar Systems cells)Concentrating PV (Solar Systems cells) –400+ suns concentration – well suited to tracking, hence higher capacity factors (~25%)

28 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" PV application Wilpena Pound

29 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" PV ANU SLIVER technology

30 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Solar thermal (STG) the bad news Technology still costly ~ 4,500-6,000$kWp)Technology still costly ~ 4,500-6,000$kWp) Capacity factor limited ~ 20-25% so unsuited to base load demand (ie industry) without heat or gas storageCapacity factor limited ~ 20-25% so unsuited to base load demand (ie industry) without heat or gas storage Energy storage expensive, alternatively needs standby (diesel, hydro or mains)Energy storage expensive, alternatively needs standby (diesel, hydro or mains)

31 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Solar thermal (STG) the good news Free primary energy – the sunFree primary energy – the sun Technology costs falling with advancing RD&D target ~ 1,500-2,500$kWpTechnology costs falling with advancing RD&D target ~ 1,500-2,500$kWp SolarGas technology (CSIRO) promises storage and improved capacity factorsSolarGas technology (CSIRO) promises storage and improved capacity factors Compact Linear Fresnel Reflectors show promise for power station supplementCompact Linear Fresnel Reflectors show promise for power station supplement Materials well understood – disposal easyMaterials well understood – disposal easy Negligible carbon or other emissionsNegligible carbon or other emissions Zero water demandZero water demand

32 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Solar thermal (STG) CSIRO Newcastle ~ 1MWe module

33 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Wind the bad news Technology still costly ~ 2,000- 4,000$/kWpTechnology still costly ~ 2,000- 4,000$/kWp Capacity factor limited ~ 15-40%Capacity factor limited ~ 15-40% Generation unrelated to system demandGeneration unrelated to system demand Wind farms often remote from gridWind farms often remote from grid Power conditioning expensive and complexPower conditioning expensive and complex Energy storage expensive, alternatively needs standby (pumped hydro, thermal spinning reserve or mains)Energy storage expensive, alternatively needs standby (pumped hydro, thermal spinning reserve or mains) Not suited to base loads (ie industry)Not suited to base loads (ie industry) Regarded by many as noisy and intrusiveRegarded by many as noisy and intrusive Poor use of real estate – prime agricultural sites - cows and sheep may safely graze, but not all birds!Poor use of real estate – prime agricultural sites - cows and sheep may safely graze, but not all birds!

34 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Wind the good news Free primary energy – wind > 6m/sFree primary energy – wind > 6m/s Technology cost falling with advanced RD&DTechnology cost falling with advanced RD&D Manufacturers established – target ($k2-4/kWp)Manufacturers established – target ($k2-4/kWp) Feed-in tariffs increasingly acceptedFeed-in tariffs increasingly accepted Emerging technologies include larger units, improved blades and composite materials give lower economic wind harvesting speedsEmerging technologies include larger units, improved blades and composite materials give lower economic wind harvesting speeds Power conditioning and energy storage costs falling, lives extending, unit sizes growingPower conditioning and energy storage costs falling, lives extending, unit sizes growing Negligible carbon or other emissionsNegligible carbon or other emissions Zero water demandZero water demand

35 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Wind farms

36 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Distributed generation the good news Can be installed close to load (eg rooftop or basement)Can be installed close to load (eg rooftop or basement) Uses locally available energy resources (sun, wind, biogas, biomass, micro hydro)Uses locally available energy resources (sun, wind, biogas, biomass, micro hydro) Offers local natural gas cogeneration/trigeneration (ie power, heating and cooling) at high efficiencyOffers local natural gas cogeneration/trigeneration (ie power, heating and cooling) at high efficiency Minimises or avoids use of T&D assets and associated lossesMinimises or avoids use of T&D assets and associated losses Least cost option for remote area power suppliesLeast cost option for remote area power supplies Very strong Australian capability !Very strong Australian capability !

37 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Distributed generation the bad news Specific energy costs ($/MWh) can be highSpecific energy costs ($/MWh) can be high Complex (but not impossible) to connect to main grid systemComplex (but not impossible) to connect to main grid system Raises ownership issues, although may attract new ownership structuresRaises ownership issues, although may attract new ownership structures Can create local distribution system congestion, especially rooftop PVCan create local distribution system congestion, especially rooftop PV

38 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Distributed generation common technologies Solar PV rooftop systemsSolar PV rooftop systems Small wind turbinesSmall wind turbines Gas fired cogeneration/trigenerationGas fired cogeneration/trigeneration Micro hydro (developing countries)Micro hydro (developing countries) Biogas (developing countries)Biogas (developing countries) Etc, etcEtc, etc

39 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Distributed generation common technologies Pictures addPictures add

40 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Distributed generation common technologies

41 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Energy storage Pumped storage already widely deployedPumped storage already widely deployed Future will be flow batteries and PHEVsFuture will be flow batteries and PHEVs Provides for economic matching of supply and demand through peak shaving and valley fillingProvides for economic matching of supply and demand through peak shaving and valley filling Critical for support of low capacity factor technologies (eg solar and wind)Critical for support of low capacity factor technologies (eg solar and wind) Adds to system energy securityAdds to system energy security Costs falling through focussed RD&DCosts falling through focussed RD&D

42 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" 500MWh energy storage system in USA

43 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Let me conclude with some comparisons

44 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Relative levelised costs ($/MWh) (Source: EPRI for UMPNER 2006)

45 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Real estate km²/GWa (excluding transmission) NuclearNuclear CoalCoal GasGas Solar PVSolar PV WindWind <1 (+ mine + repository) <1 (+ mine + ash dam + CCS) <1 (+ gas field + pipeline + CCS) 400 (15-20% capacity factor) 600 (20-40% capacity factor)

46 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" Fatality rates (Source UMPNER report ) Energy source Accidents Direct fatalities Fatalities rate/GW/a Coal1,22125, Oil39720, Coal (excl China) 1777, Natural gas Hydro1129, Hydro (excl Banquaio) 103, Nuclear

47 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" My generation portfolio guesses for Australia? By 2020 (60GW) Coal 65% Gas 23% Nuclear 0% Geothermal 2% Hydro 4% Wind 4% Solar<2% By 2050 (100GW) Coal 30% Gas 25% Nuclear 20% Geothermal 10% Hydro 3% Wind 7% Solar 5% At 2010 (54GW) Coal 76% Gas 16% Nuclear 0% Geothermal 0% Hydro 5% Wind 2% Solar <1%

48 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?" What’s yours? Thank-you for your kind attention!


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