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How to Measure ANYTHING

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The Analytical Process

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The analytical process Think Decompose Simplify Specify Rethink Think Decompose Simplify Specify Rethink

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THINK! Another way to say this: Think first, calculate second Some Hints What kind of a problem is it? Work backwards Search for analogies Another way to say this: Think first, calculate second Some Hints What kind of a problem is it? Work backwards Search for analogies

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Lateral Thinking 1

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Lateral Thinking 2

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Lateral Thinking 3

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Lateral Thinking 4

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Working backward from the conclusion

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Decompose Break the problem into manageable pieces Map how the pieces fit together Elements: Alternatives, Consequences, preferences Identify the pieces you know how to handle (plug values) Break the problem into manageable pieces Map how the pieces fit together Elements: Alternatives, Consequences, preferences Identify the pieces you know how to handle (plug values)

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Simplify -- KISS Critical focus: what really matters? Map back, find shortest path to a conclusion (how much precision do you need?) -Theory (justified belief) -Evidence (warrants, and qualifications) Critical focus: what really matters? Map back, find shortest path to a conclusion (how much precision do you need?) -Theory (justified belief) -Evidence (warrants, and qualifications)

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Specify Be precise about the elements Specify your premises, assumptions, constructs Model (draw a picture -- decision tree is a picture of a decision) Be precise about the elements Specify your premises, assumptions, constructs Model (draw a picture -- decision tree is a picture of a decision)

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Rethink Test your conclusions -Flip problem elements around -Violate constraints and assumptions -Sensitivity and a fortiori (breakeven) analysis Test your conclusions -Flip problem elements around -Violate constraints and assumptions -Sensitivity and a fortiori (breakeven) analysis

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Let’s Play Save the World Global warming!

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Q&D ABC Global Warming What is our first step?

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All choices presuppose forecasts All forecasts are more or less uncertain -Relationships What happens if we do x to y Run backwards -SONs History helps H is just a sample of observations All forecasts are more or less uncertain -Relationships What happens if we do x to y Run backwards -SONs History helps H is just a sample of observations

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