Download presentation

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Published byCarl Drey Modified over 2 years ago

1
How to Measure ANYTHING

2
The Analytical Process

3
The analytical process Think Decompose Simplify Specify Rethink Think Decompose Simplify Specify Rethink

4
THINK! Another way to say this: Think first, calculate second Some Hints What kind of a problem is it? Work backwards Search for analogies Another way to say this: Think first, calculate second Some Hints What kind of a problem is it? Work backwards Search for analogies

5
Lateral Thinking 1

6
Lateral Thinking 2

7
Lateral Thinking 3

8
Lateral Thinking 4

9
Working backward from the conclusion

13
Decompose Break the problem into manageable pieces Map how the pieces fit together Elements: Alternatives, Consequences, preferences Identify the pieces you know how to handle (plug values) Break the problem into manageable pieces Map how the pieces fit together Elements: Alternatives, Consequences, preferences Identify the pieces you know how to handle (plug values)

14
Simplify -- KISS Critical focus: what really matters? Map back, find shortest path to a conclusion (how much precision do you need?) -Theory (justified belief) -Evidence (warrants, and qualifications) Critical focus: what really matters? Map back, find shortest path to a conclusion (how much precision do you need?) -Theory (justified belief) -Evidence (warrants, and qualifications)

15
Specify Be precise about the elements Specify your premises, assumptions, constructs Model (draw a picture -- decision tree is a picture of a decision) Be precise about the elements Specify your premises, assumptions, constructs Model (draw a picture -- decision tree is a picture of a decision)

16
Rethink Test your conclusions -Flip problem elements around -Violate constraints and assumptions -Sensitivity and a fortiori (breakeven) analysis Test your conclusions -Flip problem elements around -Violate constraints and assumptions -Sensitivity and a fortiori (breakeven) analysis

17
Let’s Play Save the World Global warming!

18
Q&D ABC Global Warming What is our first step?

20
All choices presuppose forecasts All forecasts are more or less uncertain -Relationships What happens if we do x to y Run backwards -SONs History helps H is just a sample of observations All forecasts are more or less uncertain -Relationships What happens if we do x to y Run backwards -SONs History helps H is just a sample of observations

Similar presentations

© 2017 SlidePlayer.com Inc.

All rights reserved.

Ads by Google