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São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife | Belo Horizonte London | Lisbon | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires Durval de Noronha.

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Presentation on theme: "São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife | Belo Horizonte London | Lisbon | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires Durval de Noronha."— Presentation transcript:

1 São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife | Belo Horizonte London | Lisbon | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr. Senior Partner - Noronha Advogados Johannesburg, 18 August Brazilian Foreign Trade and Investment Flows

2 1.Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy 2.Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners 3.General Aspects of Brazil's Foreign Policy POINTS OF PRESENTATION

3 Map of Brazil

4 Economic Growth % Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE * Central Bank estimate Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy

5 Brazil's GDP (incorporating purchase power parity rating) Source: CIA World Book Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Total GDP US$ trillion GDP per capita US$ (2007) GDP per capita US$ (2006)

6 Brazil’s GDP in US$ Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE In yellow – IBGE’s new methodology.*Projection Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy * 2008 GDP (Billion) ,0061,3001,378 Population (Million) GDP per capita (Thousand) 3,103,664,775,41 6,917,25

7 Development of External Debt Year Amount (US$ Billion) , , , , , , , , , ,3 4,3 * ,8 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Source: Central Bank* MAR/2008

8 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian International Reserves YearUS$ Billion , , , , ,334 * ,185 Source: Central Bank*JULY/2008

9 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian International Reserves Source: Central Bank*JULY/2008 US$ Billion

10 Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil Source: Central Bank. Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy YearTotal , , , , , , ,0 * ,0 * Estimate US$ Billion

11 Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil US$ Billion Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Source: Central Bank. * Estimate

12 Brazil: Inflation rate % Source: Central Bank * Estimate Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy

13 YearTotal 20024, , , , , ,1 * ,0 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian Direct Investment Abroad Source: Central Bank *Estimate US$ Billion

14 Brazilian Direct Investment Abroad Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy US$ Billion Source: Central Bank *Estimate

15 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian Direct Investment Abroad: Main Countries in 2007 Source: Central Bank 20% 15% 10% 9% 4% 3% 29%

16 94% 2% 4% Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian Direct Investment Abroad By Sector in 2007 Source: Central Bank

17 2008 – Budweiser by Inbev (US$ 52 billion) – Mirab (Argentina) by Marfrig (US$ 36 million) – Swift Foods by Friboi (US$ 1.5 billion) – Chaparral Steel by Gerdau (US$ 4.2 billion) Acerías Paz (Colombia) by the Votorantim Group (US$ 491 million) – INCO (Canada) by Vale do Rio Doce (US$ 13.4 billion) – Loma Negra (Argentina) by Camargo Correa (US$ billion) 7 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Some Brazilian Acquisitions Abroad Sources: 1 Folha de São Paulo, 14 July Estado de São Paulo, 3 January Valor Econômico, 27 December

18 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Foreign Direct Investments: Outflows by Country Source: Unctad, World Investment Report 2007 US$ Billion Brazil

19 US$ Billion Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Foreign Direct Investments: Inflows by Country Source: Unctad, World Investment Report 2007 Brazil

20 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Development R$ x US$ Source: Central Bank 29/7/2008

21 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Development R$ x € Source: Central Bank 29/7/2008

22 Source: Central Bank Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Development R$ x RMB 29/7/2008

23 Source: Central Bank Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Development R$ x RAND 29/7/2008

24 World's Interest Rates July 2008 CountryNominal RateInflationReal Rate Turkey19%11%8% Brazil13%6%7% Mexico8%4,8%3,2% South Africa12,5%9,5%3% India9%7%2% Euro Area5%4%1% Japan0,70%1,41%(0,7%) China4,5%6,5%(2%) USA2,3%4,3%(2%) Russia11%13,9%(2,9%) Source: World Bank Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy

25 Main problems yet to be solved  taxes are not competitive;  interest rates are very high;  Brazilian currency overvalued. Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy

26 Brazil's Current Account Source: Central Bank US$ Billion

27 Automotive Production YearCars and light commercial vehicles TrucksBusesTotal 20031, ,93826,9901, , ,33828,7582, , ,89235,2662, , ,00133,8092, , ,98038,7852, * 20083, ,10444,5203, Source: National Automotive Industry Association - ANFAVEA * estimate Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy

28 2005 – 1.85 million barrels a day 2006 – Brazil achieves self sufficiency in oil 2007 – Discovery of Tupi oilfield with estimated 10 billion of barrels of oil. The discovery could double the Brazilian reserves – Discovery of Carioca oilfield with estimated 70 billion barrels of oil. Discovery puts Brazil's oil reserves among the world's largest – 3.4 million barrels a day 2 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Source: 1 - Financial Times, July Petrobrás estimate Oil Production

29 World's Oil Reserves 1Saudi Arabia264 2Iran130 3Iraq105 4Kuwait100 5UAE95 6Brazil90 7Venezuela80 8Russia75 9Libya37 10Kazakhstan37 11Nigeria35 12USA27 Source: The Economist – Financial Times Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy In Billion of Barrels

30 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy 500 million litres/year Increase in cultivated area by 67,000 hectares Creation of 20,000 direct jobs and 60,000 indirect jobs Investments in production chain estimated at around USD 150 million/year CO 2 emission reduction by 3.5 million tons/year Ethanol Production Source: Sugar Cane Industry Union - UNICA

31 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Source: Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy Sources of Energy 86% 14% 55% 45%

32 Aeroplane Trade (US$ Million FOB) Exports 2,799.22,050.03,371.33,302.83,442.54,367.5 Imports ,234.51,593,2 Balance 2,114.21,458.62,482.62,335.12,208.02, Flow of Commerce 3,484.22,641.34,260.04,270.54,676.05, Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy

33 The ship industry in Brazil is rebuilding itself after years of depression. By 2012, 26 new ships will be delivered to Transpetro (Petrobras Transports) with the contracts in that respect worth US$ 2,5 billion. In 2007 direct jobs in the Brazilian ship industry increased by 40,000. By October 2007, the total of the loans from BNDES* was in the amount of R$ 3,6 billion in relation to the ship industry. In 2008, The Brazilian Fund of Merchant Marine approved US$ 989,8 million for new investments. The estimated income of the ship industry is R$ 4,5 billion, from building ships to building oil platforms. *BNDES - Brazilian Development Bank Source: Construction Industry National Syndicate Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Ship Industry

34 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Steel : In 2007, Brazilian production reached record levels, closing at 40 million tons, up from 30,9 million of The estimate for 2008 is an increase of 10,8%, with a production of 37,6 million of tons. Cement : In 2008, according estimates Brazil will produce millions tons of cement, an increase of 10% from Source: Brazilian Cement Association and Brazilian Iron Institute Base Industries

35 39% 46% 15% Brazil's Social Development: Division by Classes in 2007 Source: Ipsos Public Affairs and the financial institution Cetelem. 86,2 million people 28 million people 72,9 million people Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy

36 Source: Ipsos Public Affairs and the financial institution Cetelem. Brazil's Social Development: Growth of Class C % of Population 34% 36% 48%

37 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Unemployment rate in Brazil Months of April, May and June – 2002 to 2008 Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE

38 Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * Up to June US$ Billion Brazilian Trade YearExports US$ FOB Imports US$ FOB Balance US$ FOB Flow of Trade US$ FOB ,6762,8333,84159, ,5273,6044,93192, ,8091,3546,45229, ,64120,6240,02281,27 * ,6479,2911,34169,94 Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

39 Brazilian Trade US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * estimate Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

40 YearExports US$ FOB Imports US$ FOB Balance US$ FOB Flow of Trade US$ FOB ,6715,998,6840, ,0318,238,8045, ,0420,2010,8451, ,4226,7313,6967,15 * ,1416,635,5138,77 Brazilian Trade with The European Union US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 2008 Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

41 US$ Billion Brazilian Trade with The European Union Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * estimate Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

42 Brazilian Trade with China YearExports FOBImports FOBBalance FOB Flow of Trade FOB 20045,443,711,739, ,835,351,4812, ,407,990,4116, ,7412,61-1,8623,36 * 20087,408,94- 1,5416,35 US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 2008 Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

43 Brazilian Trade with China US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * estimate Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

44 Brazilian Trade with South Africa YearExports FOBImports FOBBalance FOB Flow of Trade FOB 20041,030,260,771, ,370,341,031, ,460,431,031, ,750,521,232,27 * 20080,830,390,441,22 US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 2008 Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

45 Brazilian Trade with South Africa US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC *estimate Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

46 Main Products in Bilateral Trade Brazil – South Africa US$ Million Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 2008 Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Brazil's Exports US$ FOB Brazil's Imports US$ FOB Refined Soy Oil72,98Anthracite55,60 Chicken Cuts and offal, frozen 65,01Rhodium, Raw or powdered 41,85 Other vehicles49,75Other Vehicles Motors24,20 Other Cane Sugar47,50Ferro-manganese19,13 Trucks Body38,38Tebuthiuron17,75 Road tractors for semi- trailers 32,63Other Hydrocarbon13,48

47 Brazilian Flow of Trade Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC June/2008 Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

48 Sources of Brazil’s Imports Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC June/2008 Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

49 19% 35% 24% 10% 7% 5% Flow of trade between Brazil and selected economic blocs Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC June/2008 Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

50 Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock - CNA *Estimate Brazil's Agribusiness Trade Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners US$ Billion

51 Brazilian Agribusiness Products Position between main exporters % of Total Global Exports Orange juice1º81% Poultry1º35% Sugar1º33% Coffee1º30% Tobacco1º27% Bovine Meat1º24% Ethanol1º13% Soy2º32% Soy Oil2º28% Pork3º11% Cotton3º5% Source: International Relations and Trade Institute - Icone Brasil Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy

52 DestinationsAgribusiness Exports (US$ million) Var. % 07/06 (b/a) Total Exp. (c) Increased Value % 2006 (a)2007 (b)Basic SemiManufactured 1.EU , ,43 14,5328,04 2. USA , ,55 19,70 60,75 3. China , ,69 29,23 3,09 4. Russia , ,37 30,72 4,92 5. Argentina , ,19 6,31 82,50 6. Japan , ,42 14,65 26,93 Main Destinations for Brazil's Agribusiness Exports Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock - CNA *Estimate Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners

53 Main Destinations for Brazil's Agribusiness Exports Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock - CNA *Estimate

54 Source: FAO/IBGE Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Potential Areas for Agricultural Expansion

55 General Aspects of Brazil's Foreign Policy Brazil’s prevailing foreign policy doctrine recognizes the vulnerability of the country in a number of areas: Economic; Technological; Political; Commercial; and Military. Source: Ministry of External Relations of Brazil

56 General Aspects of Brazil's Foreign Policy Brazil’s present foreign policy doctrine recommends alliances with other major developing countries such as: China; India; Russia; and South Africa In order to minimize such vulnerabilities. Source: Ministry of External Relations of Brazil

57 Address: Rua Alexandre Dumas, 1630 CEP: São Paulo SP Brasil Phone: (55-11) Fax: (55-11) (55 11) NORONHA ADVOGADOS Located in one of the main financial centers of the city, the São Paulo office is the head office of Noronha Advogados and the oldest, having been opened in June It concentrates the highest number of professionals and is the centre for the firm’s administrative and financial departments. The São Paulo office houses an efficient and up-to-date library and computer network, fully connected to the other offices, in Brazil and abroad. Contact: Durval de Noronha Goyos Júnior Bento Delgado Kardos

58 NORONHA ADVOGADOS

59 Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr.


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