1. Beyond greenhouse gases – The importance of direct climate impacts associated with bioenergy expansion Matei Georgescu, Assistant Professor, School of School of Geographical Sciences & Urban Planning Senior Sustainability Scientist, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University

2. Outline 1.US corn/soy to second generation bioenergy crops 2.Future work: System sustainability and resilience 3.Impacts owing to sugar cane expansion in Brazil

3. Direct Impacts (on hydro-climate) of substituting annual with perennial bioenergy crops Corn Belt Perennial bioenergy crops WRF Domain

4. Perennial and Annual bioenergy crops: Observed Phenological differences Miscanthus maize X-intercepts represent the dates of crop emergence and completion of senescence for each species in each year [F. G. Dohlman and S. P. Long Plant Phys. 150, 2104 (2009)].

5. APR: Vegetation Fraction Difference Perennial - Annual biophysical differences APR: LAI Difference APR: Albedo Difference

6. Perennials minus Annuals PerennialsNoAlb minus Annuals Perennials-2m minus Annuals Near-surface temp. impacts of conversion to Perennial bioenergy crops Local cooling of 1-2ºC (Georgescu et al. 2011, PNAS).

7. Hydro-climatic impacts of conversion to Perennial bioenergy crops Regionally averaged across land undergoing conversion, greatest temp. differences occur during shoulder seasons (when phenological contrasts are largest) Temp differences are owing to higher rates of ET for the deeper-rooted perennials (Georgescu et al. 2011, PNAS) Perennials-2m minus Annuals

8. Hydro-climatic impacts of conversion to Perennial bioenergy crops (Georgescu et al. 2011, PNAS) WRF simulated total monthly precipitation difference [mm] (Perennials-2m minus Annuals) for (left) July and (right) October.

9. Outline 1.Phenological Impacts: US corn/soy to second generation bioenergy crops 2.Future work: System sustainability and Resilience 3.Impacts owing to sugar cane expansion in Brazil

10. PI (Georgescu): Water Sustainability and Climate (WSC) Title: Sustainable Large-Scale Deployment of Perennial Biomass Energy Crops Source: Cai et al. 2011, Environ. Sci. Technol. US: 123 million ha Global: 1107 million ha

11. PI (Georgescu): Water Sustainability and Climate (WSC) Title: Sustainable Large-Scale Deployment of Perennial Biomass Energy Crops Trans-disciplinary approach integrating: economics/water/climate/energy/policy

12. Outline 1.Phenological Impacts: US corn/soy to second generation bioenergy crops 2.Future work: System sustainability and Resilience 3.Impacts owing to sugar cane expansion in Brazil

13. (Georgescu et al. In Prep) Sugar Cane parameterization Harvest [August] de Cerqueira Leite et al., 2009

14. Sugar Cane seasonal impacts on 2m temps (Georgescu et al. In Prep) SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER

15. Multi-member ensemble approach (Georgescu et al. In Prep)

16. consequences of biofuel expansion require an integrated trans-disciplinary assessment - social/economic valuation integrated with direct hydro-climatic consequences and biogeochemical impacts. Maize to switchgrass/miscanthus Sugarcane e.g. sorghum e.g. jatropha Take home message Thank You!