1. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 1 Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty Daniel Lerch Program Manager

2. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 2 Post Carbon Institute Global Public Media Relocalization Network Post Carbon Cities Local Energy Farms Network Oil Depletion Protocol

3. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 3 This Presentation 1. What’s happening? This presentation... CLIMATEENERGY Peak Oil (and Gas and Coal and...) Global Warming 2. What’s the problem? 3. What are cities already doing? 4. What’s the best course of action? “Energy Uncertainty”“Climate Uncertainty” Identifying vulnerabilities.Reducing GHG emissions. Stop making the problems worse, and prepare for the effects that can’t be avoided. (“Four Next Steps” and “Five Principles”)

4. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 4 What’s happening? Demand is RISING......but Supply is LEVELLING, and may soon fall.  Developing world is rapidly industrializing (China, India)  Western world demand growth  The “easy oil” is gone  Logistical (financial) limits to what can ultimately be produced The fundamental factors of oil supply and demand are changing.

5. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 5 What’s happening? U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Overview 2006, p.64 11 Sep 2007 oil hits $80/barrel * The old assumptions no longer fit. 2007

6. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 6 What’s happening? “The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy resources are quickly drawing to a close.'' –US Army Corps of Engineers, “Energy trends and their implications for U.S. Army Installations,” Sept. 2005. But fortunately, some see the problems ahead.

7. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 7 What’s happening? 1. The “easy oil” has peaked. 2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference. 4. The remaining oil isn’t all ours to buy. The oil problem in three points:

8. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 8 What’s happening? 1. The “easy oil” has peaked. Discoveries peaked in the 1960s, production seems to have peaked May 2005. Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas

9. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 9 What’s happening? Campbell, C. 2004. History and Projection of World Oil (and Gas Liquids) Production, 2004 Conventional Oil Unconventional Oil 2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference.

10. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 10 What’s happening? 3. The remaining oil isn’t all ours to buy. More oil coming from troubled parts of the world More demand, esp. from developing countries

11. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 11 What’s happening? “The all-important question is, how much oil can the industry pump every day...? That’s what the debate over Peak Oil is all about... When will the flow rate that the industry can possibly attain reach its maximum?” -- Richard Heinberg, “Open Letter to Greg Palast”, 6 July 2006. *Oil prices depend on oil flows: major problems begin when flows can’t keep up with growing demand. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

12. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 12 What’s happening? “...a shortfall of oil supplies caused by world conventional oil production peaking will sharply increase oil prices and oil price volatility... As oil peaking is approached, relatively minor events will likely have more pronounced impacts on oil prices and futures markets.” -- Hirsch, R., et al. “Peaking of World Oil Production.” Report for the U.S. Dep’t of Energy, Feb. 2005. *Declining supply + rising demand = price volatility SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

13. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 13 What’s the problem? THE BOTTOM LINE: Peak oil means both increased oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

14. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 14 What’s the problem? Over-dependence on oil Short-term challenges Long-term challenges Why is this a problem for local governments?: Peak oil means both increased oil prices and volatility in supply and price. Peak oil means both increased oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

15. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 15 What’s the problem? Oil is an essential input: We are dependent on oil as a raw material. “Oil makes it possible to transport food to the...megacities of the world. “Oil also provides the plastics and chemicals that are the bricks and mortar of contemporary civilization...” –Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. 1991. Oil is an assumed input: Systems assume stability in oil supplies and prices. Oil is a non-interchangeable input (short-term): Alternatives to oil are still marginal. Over-dependence Peak oil means both increased oil prices and volatility in supply and price. Over-dependence on oil

16. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 16 What’s the problem? Short-term challenges Challenges –Unexpected price changes in oil products (gasoline, asphalt) Over-dependence Peak oil means increased oil prices and volatility in both supply and price. –Unexpected price changes in other products (push for ethanol = higher meat prices) –Occasional shortages (Hurricane Katrina and North Carolina)

17. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 17 “ Energy Uncertainty ” –How can municipalities... set meaningful budgets make long-range land use and transportation plans serve their citizens and the local business community...with such uncertainty in the price of the most important material to the global economy? What’s the problem? Challenges Peak oil means increased oil prices and volatility in both supply and price. Long-term challenges – How will the global economy adjust? – How will this impact regional and local economies?

18. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 18 What’s happening? Peak oil... when?

19. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 19

20. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 20 What’s happening? The global climate is being changed – but we don’t know exactly in what ways, and how quickly. GHG concentrations are up dramatically, and RISING. We don’t fully undestand the effects or the system.  Prior and continuning industrialization.  15 years since Earth Summit, little to show for it.  Trigger points? Feedback loops?  Local effects? Economic effects? ! + ?

21. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 21 What’s happening? [ The debate is over. ] “Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.”

22. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 22 What’s happening? [ The debate is over. ]

23. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 23 What’s happening? 2. We don’t know exactly how the global ecosystem will change in the long run. (tipping points? feedback loops?) 1. We know that some effects of global warming are inevitable in the short-term. (and they’re generally not good) ! + ? [ The Global Warming Problem in Two Points. ]

24. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 24 What’s the problem? Short-term challenges: –Mitigation: Stop making it worse! –Adaptation: Deal with first effects. Long-term challenges: –Adaptation: How will local and regional climates change? –Adaptation: How will this affect global/regional/local economy? “ Climate Uncertainty ” Dependence: –Ecosystem services. –Economy and society are subsets of the environment. [ Why is this a problem for local governments? ]

25. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 25 Overdependence on oil Short-term challenges (unexpected price changes, occasional shortages) PEAK OIL Long-term challenges (how will global, regional and local economies respond? how can municipalities budget and plan?) 1. Oil prices depend on oil flows. 2. Oil is more difficult to produce. 3. Oil supply is less stable. 4. OPEC can’t make up the slack anymore. WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? Dependence on global ecosystem Short-term challenges (dealing with first effects) GLOBAL WARMING Long-term challenges (long-term changes to climates and economies) 2. We don’t know exactly how the global ecosystem will change in the long term. 1. We know that some effects are inevitable in the short term. WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? What’s the problem? The “Climate-Peak Convergence” “Energy and Climate Uncertainty ” Short-term challenges: –Mitigation: Stop making it worse! –Adaptation: Deal with first effects. Long-term challenges: –Adaptation: How will local and regional climates change? –Adaptation: How will this affect global/regional/local economy? Dependence: –Ecosystem services. –Economy and society are subsets of the environment.

26. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 26 What can be done about it? - Hirsch, Robert. et al. “PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT”. Report for the U.S. Department of Energy, February 2005. (emphasis added) “Timely, aggressive mitigation initiatives addressing both the supply and the demand sides of the issue will be required...” “Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort...” “Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.” We need government mitigation initiatives that address energy supply and demand. What can be done?

27. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 27 What are cities already doing?

28. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 28 What are cities already doing? As of August 2007, over 600 mayors --from all 50 states– have signed.

29. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 29 What are cities already doing?

30. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 30 What are other cities already doing? Portland, Ore. Oakland, Calif. Bloomington, Indiana Resolution which creates......a Task Force. San Francisco, Calif. Austin, Tex. Portland, Ore. (completed May 2007) Oakland, Calif. (finishing October 2007) San Francisco, Calif. (assembling Sept. 2007)

31. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 31 What are cities already doing? Internal ReportPublic Report Burnaby, B.C. (January 2006) Portland, Ore. regional gov’t (April 2006) Hamilton, Ont. (February 2006) Sebastopol, Calif. (April 2007) Portland, Ore. (May 2007)

32. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 32 Portland Peak Oil Task Force Excerpted from “Descending the Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas,” Portland (Oregon) Peak Oil Task Force, March 2007; available online at http://www.portlandonline.com/osd. 1. Reduce total oil and natural gas consumption by 50 percent over the next 25 years. 2. Inform citizens about peak oil and foster community and community-based solutions. 3. Engage business, government and community leaders to initiate planning and policy change. Reduce oil & NG consumption Provide leadership View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

33. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 33 Portland Peak Oil Task Force 4. Support land use patterns that reduce transportation needs, promote walkability and provide easy access to services and transportation options. 5. Design infrastructure to promote transportation options and facilitate efficient movement of freight... 6. Encourage energy-efficient and renewable transportation choices. 7. Expand building energy-efficiency programs and incentives for all new and existing structures. Land use & transporta- tion Efficiency, conservation View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

34. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 34 Portland Peak Oil Task Force 8.Preserve farmland and expand local food production and processing. 9. Identify and promote sustainable business opportunities. 10.Redesign the safety net and protect vulnerable and marginalized populations. 11.Prepare emergency plans for sudden and severe shortages. Economic development Support system Emergency planning View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

35. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 35 Post Carbon Cities guidebook Written specifically for local government officials and staff. Describes the facts and issues surrounding “peak energy” Describes the challenges cities face in energy and climate uncertainty. Reviews experiences of early-actor cities. Recommendations for short-term and long-term actions. Sample resolutions; guide to establishing a task force. Free preview, ordering at www.postcarboncities.net.

36. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 36 The “Four Initial Steps” Step 1. Sign the (Seattle) U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement Step 2. Join the ICLEI Cities for Climate Protection Campaign. Step 3. Sign the Oil Depletion Protocol. Step 4. Establish a Peak Oil Task Force. Post Carbon Cities guidebook

37. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 37 Post Carbon Cities guidebook The “Five Long-term Principles” 1.Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now). 2.Tackle private energy consumption. 3.Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from multiple angles. 4.Plan for fundamental changes...and make fundamental changes happen. 5.Build a stronger sense of community.

38. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 38 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 1.Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

39. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 39 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 2.Tackle private energy consumption.

40. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 40 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 3.Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from many angles.

41. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 41 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 3.Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from many angles.

42. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 42 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 4.Plan for fundamental changes... and make fundamental changes happen.

43. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 43 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 5.Build a sense of community.

44. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 44 Post Carbon Cities guidebook

45. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty - 45 Post Carbon Institute www.postcarbon.org Post Carbon Cities book and program www.postcarboncities.net Daniel Lerch, Program Manager 971-207-6334 daniel@postcarbon.org