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Climate change discussion in Europe: Light at the end of the alarmist tunnel? Dr Sebastian Lüning.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate change discussion in Europe: Light at the end of the alarmist tunnel? Dr Sebastian Lüning."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate change discussion in Europe: Light at the end of the alarmist tunnel? Dr Sebastian Lüning




5 „The Neglected Sun“ reminded IPCC scientists of the important role of natural climate drivers >Publication dates: German: 2012 English: 2013 >Authors: –Prof Fritz Vahrenholt: former CEO Renewable Energy Company –Dr Sebastian Lüning: Geologist Fritz Vahrenholt Sebastian Lüning

6 Reaction of the Climate Establishment Prof Mojib Latif (University of Kiel): “When reading the book as a scientist, my hair stands on end. This is a pseudo-scientific treatise.” Prof Hartmut Graßl (formerly Director of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva): “Well, you know, I don‘t really want to comment on this rubbish.“ Prof Jochem Marotzke (Director of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg): “The book authors have read a lot but understood very little.“

7 Presentation by Mojib Latif at internationalen conference ‘AMOC Variability: Dynamics and Impacts’ in Baltimore on 17 July 2013 Latif‘s Conclusions on slide 30:

8 Climate Skepticism in the European Parliament On 3 July 2012, the European Parliament invited Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning to Strasbourg (France) to present to parliamentarians their non- alarmistic climate view, emphasizing the significant role of natural climate drivers.

9 Music Professor of University of Graz calls for death penalty for climate skeptics In a document on a university server, music professor Prof. Richard Parncutt of Graz University (Austria) called in December 2012 for the death penalty for climate skeptic The university subsequently forced Parncutt to delete the files and take them offline. Parncutt still works at the University to this date.

10 Hans von Storch in Interview with newspaper „Wirtschaftswoche“ in April 2013 WIRTSCHAFTSWOCHE: How long does the warming pause have to continue before you start haveing second thoughts about the validity of current climate models? VON STORCH: In case the warming pause was to continue for another 10 years, I would question the model, that greenhouse gases are the main reason for global warming. It was a mistake that climate scientists forgot to mention the possibility that such warming pauses could happen.

11 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: One of the world’s most active climate alarm factories Photo sources: Building: H. Raab (uploaded to Wikipedia by User:Vesta), Rahmstorf (left): Frédéric Batier - PIK Stefan Rahmstorf Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe

12 Germany’s Energy Transition: Chaos Gas: Powerplants not commercial Coal: Plan was to reduce. I reality coal use has increased Nuclear power: phased out Renewable energies: highly subsidized, electricity prices have doubled in last 12 years Development of price for electricity in Germany 1998-2014 Electricity price Energy generation VAT Other taxes Dues

13 Germany‘s EPA („Umweltbundesamt“) blacklists climate skeptics In May 2013 Germany‘s version of the Environmental Protection Agency („Umweltbundesamt“, UBA) issued a colourful climate brochure which warned of an upcoming climate catastrophe The booklet also included a „black list“ of skeptical scientists which in the opinion of the UBS should not be listened to. Some of the accused scientists and journalists said they might sue UBA. Initially no authors in UBA-booklet mentioned. Only later names were added – however, none of the alleged auhtors are climate scientists. In an unusal wave of solidarity, politicians and media (incl. ZDF) criticized the UBA for its mobbying attempt.

14 Discussion round on Austrian TV ORF2 about documentary „Climate Crimes“ which addresses destruction of nature in the name of „Green Policies”. Filmmaker Ulrich Eichelmann and his team visited the Mesopotamian Marshes in Iraq, the rainforests of the Amazon and Indonesia, Turkey’s Southeast, as well as protected sites in Germany. All of them could be destroyed within the next decades due to hydropower plants, palm oil plantations and maize fields used to produce biofuel and biogas. Skeptic Views on Austrian TV

15 Discussion round on Euronews TV in early November 2013 in context of Conference of Parties (COP) 19 in Warszaw, Poland. Participants: Bas Eickhout (Member of European Parliament, Green Party Christiana Figueres (Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Bonn, Germany Sebastian Lüning (Geologist) Skeptic Views on Euronews

16 Dutch advice to IPCC: limiting the scope to human induced climate change is undesirable

17 IPCC report 2014: Author withdraws

18 The Research Council of Norway assumes a strongly reduced warming effect of CO 2 “Uncertainties about the overall results of feedback mechanisms make it very difficult to predict just how much of the rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature is due to manmade emissions. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the climate sensitivity to doubled atmospheric CO2 levels is probably between 2°C and 4.5°C, with the most probable being 3°C of warming. In the Norwegian project, however, researchers have arrived at an estimate of 1.9°C as the most likely level of warming.” Press release 24th January 2013:

19 Austrian Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics suggest lower CO2 climate sensitivity Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) complains on its website that climate models react too strongly to greenhouse gases ZMAG shows this temperature graph on their website (colours: models, back: reality) Webpage is still active as of 7 July 2014

20 Sea Level Rise: Faster than ever?

21 Sea level cycles in the southern North Sea during the last 7500 years Natural millennial climate cycles strengthened or weakened the long-term rate of rise via glacial ice gain or ice loss. From Behre (2004)

22 No accelerated sea level rise for the last 50 years

23 European Research Consortium: Sea level rise less severe than previously assumed

24 Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve. Karl Popper Austrian-British Philosopher, 1902-1994

25 Thank You

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