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The 2012 Update of Our Future World Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy.

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Presentation on theme: "The 2012 Update of Our Future World Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy."— Presentation transcript:

1 The 2012 Update of Our Future World Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy

2 The Megatrends

3 1. More From Less It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small. - Neil Armstrong

4 Food

5 Water 1.2 billion people in regions with insufficient water 1.6 billion people in water-scarce river basins with inadequate capacity to develop International Water Management Institute

6 Energy Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011

7 Minerals Source: Mudd GM, The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and Their Environmental Implications for the Future. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and Mineral Policy Institute.

8 2. Going, Going … Gone?

9 The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species. Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS Going, Going… Gone?

10 Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

11 Going, Going … Gone? Red List Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 11 Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010 Red List Extinction Risk Index 1 = No concern 0 = Extinct

12 Going, Going... Gone? Staying Put Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

13 3. The Silk Highway

14 The Silk Highway It’s Been So Good in Australia (comparatively) Data source: World Bank GDP Growth Rates

15 The Silk Highway A Shifting World Economy Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy

16 The Silk Highway Making Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 16 Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

17 4. Forever Young As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others. - Audrey Hepburn

18 Forever Young The Ageing Population – Australia Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old It will be 25% by 2050

19 Forever Young Retirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement Source: Rice Warner

20 Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Forever Young Diabetes and Overweight Projections

21 Data Source: World Masters Association Forever Young Wanting to Stay Active and Engaged Toronto, Canada Aalborg, Aarhus & Herning Denmark Brisbane, Australia Portland, Oregon, USA Melbourne, Australia Edmonton, Canada Sydney, Australia Number of Competitors

22 5. Virtually Here

23 Virtually Here The Growth of Online Retail Online as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales % 10% National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in Retail Sales Volume Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics

24 Virtually Here Catch me if you can – New models of retail Image Source: Flickr.com Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls

25 Virtually Here The Work (Live?) Anywhere City Currently 6% of Australian workers telecommute, 11% in the US and 10% in Europe (Access Economics). The Australian Government aims to increase teleworking to 12% of the workforce (DCDBE). In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.

26 Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM

27 Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend In Australia they cost $10,000 to $20,000 per month

28 6. Great Expectations Now, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has great expectations. - Charles Dickens

29 Great Expectations Maslow’s Hierarchy

30 Great Expectations Declining Material Consumption Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

31 Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being: Journal of Consumer Research Journal of Consumer Research Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology The Journal of Positive Psychology Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being Journal of Personality and Social Psychology The Journal of Positive Psychology Journal of Research in Personality 2003 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Great Expectations The Jury is out - Experiences make us happier

32 Great Expectations Utility - A non-linear relationship Beers (schooners) Happiness (utility)  Not likely More likely

33 Great Expectations Increasing Importance of the “Whole Package” Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue – The Moral Dimension

34 Basic Expectations 24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990) 33% of people in urban slums 15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry United Nations, 2012

35 Thank you Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Leader – CSIRO Futures | Principal Scientist t wwww.csiro.au CSIRO FUTURES


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