1. The BRIC Countries in the World Economy
Chapter 17
The BRIC Countries in the World Economy

2. Learning Objectives
Define the meaning of the term BRIC and state why it has been adopted into common usage.
Explain the demographic challenge facing China and Russia.
Narrate a description of the economic reforms in each BRIC economy.
Compare and contrast the transition from socialism to capitalism in China and Russia.

3. Learning Objectives (cont.)
Discuss three challenges confronting the world economy as the BRIC countries become more integrated into international trade and investment flows.
Analyze four unresolved issues for the BRIC countries.

4. Introduction: The BRICs
In 2001, James O’Neill, of Goldman Sachs, wrote a paper, “Building Better Global Economic BRICs”
The BRICs acronym in the title referred to
Brazil
Russia
India
China
These four countries are dramatically reshaping the international economy with the potential to change global trade and capital flows

5. Introduction: The BRICs (cont.)
BRICs are large, ranking among the world’s top 10 in population and top 11 in GDP
All have undergone reforms that have transformed them are more internationally integrated and central to the future of the world economy
Each has an abundance of unrealized potential which conceivably have larger impacts on the global economy in the not-too-distant future

6. Demographic and Economic Characteristics
In 2010, these countries had approximately 41 percent of the world’s population and 25 percent of world GDP when measured in PPP terms.
China’s economy is 2nd only to United States in size; the largest in next decade at current rates of growth
Brazil is the world’s seventh largest economy
India the ninth
Russia the eleventh, measured in U.S. dollars (2010).

7. Demographic and Economic Characteristics (cont.)
During the first decade of the 21st century, the BRIC economies experienced spectacular growth in per capita income
A shift in the balance of world economic power has come about through the hard work and careful policies of the BRIC countries

8. TABLE 17.1 Population and Income in the BRICs, 2010

9. FIGURE 17.1 BRIC and G-7 Shares of World GDP (PPP)

10. FIGURE 17.2 China and India In the World Economy, 1700-1950

11. FIGURE 17.3 Population, 1960-2050, in Millions

12. TABLE 17.2 The Aging of China and Russia

13. Economic Reforms in the BRIC Economies
Reform of the Communist system in China began in 1978
Prior to reform, private enterprise did not exist
All decisions were made from the top-down
India’s reforms began in the 1980’s and gained momentum in the 1990’s in response to a balance of payments crisis
Prior to reform, India was best characterized socialist
Heavy industry was state owned
Private industry was heavily regulated

14. Economic Reforms in the BRIC Economies (cont.)
Russia’s transition began with the collapse of communism and the dismantling of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991
USSR was replaced with fifteen newly independent states including three that would soon join the European Union (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and the Russian Federation (Russia)

15. Economic Reforms in the BRIC Economies (cont.)
Countries transitioning from socialist to capitalist systems implemented a wide range of reform tasks
Most immediate problem in most countries was a sudden collapse of GDP
Property rights had to be defined
New institutions had to be created to establish rules for businesses and workers
Define the scope of government

16. Economic Reforms in the BRIC Economies (cont.)
Brazil’s large domestic market enabled many firms to capture economies of scale
Brazil’s economy in 1950s into early 1970s boomed
Described as the Brazilian Miracle

17. Economic Reforms in the BRIC Economies (cont.)
The Latin American Debt Crisis brought these developments to a complete halt in the 1980s
Brazilian leaders resorted to money creation as a means of financing government operations, the consequence was rapid inflation
After several currency reforms in the 1990s, Brazil finally gained control over inflation and restored a system of sustainable government finances

18. Economic Reforms in the BRIC Economies (cont.)
Two key factors to Brazil’s restoration of high growth rates:
One, a series of two-term presidents bringing stability in policy and competent leadership
Two, Brazil benefited from China’s appetite for resources and foodstuffs, both directly by selling to China and indirectly through the rise in commodity prices that China’s demand helped create

19. The Reform Process in China
Leader of reforms was Deng Xaioping, gradually dismantling of controls exercised by Communist Party
Foreign trade under the old system controlled by 12 foreign trading corporations (FTC), with no consideration given to comparative advantage
Created Special Economic Zones (SEZ) that gave local provinces authority to establish economic and trade policy
China applies to joint the GATT in 1986 and gained WTO membership in 2001

20. Indian Economic Reforms
Three forces played roles in the move toward reform:
The USSR, India’s primary trading partner, dissolved in 1991
Other South East Asian countries were having success with reforms
A financial crisis had developed as a result of heavy borrowing by the government

21. Indian Economic Reforms (cont.)
Details of the reforms:
De-nationalization, led by finance minister Mammohan Singh
Elimination of a regulatory permitting process that interfered with competition
Transition from import substitution industrialization policies toward export lead growth policies
Dismantling of restrictions on international trade and foreign investment

22. Russian Economic Reforms
Transition economies: The economies that abandoned socialism or communism in favor of market based systems
One of the first controversies; speed of transition
Economy had to be stabilized to avoid unsustainable budget deficits and hyperinflation
The barriers of entry were dismantled
Important new markets were created

23. Russian Economic Reforms (cont.)
New labor markets required unemployment insurance, pension systems, and safety nets
New financial markets needed regulatory apparatus for banking oversight, security laws, and tax rules
The transfer of property rights was begun
Government created the legal infrastructure for settling disputes and enforcing contracts
One of the most complicated and difficult tasks:
privatizing state-owned firms and factories

24. Russian Economic Reforms (cont.)
Outcome was tragic for a large segment of the population - By 1996 Russia’s economy was about 64 percent of its size in 1990
Infant mortality increased dramatically, birth rates fell below replacement levels, and wealth became highly concentrated
Russia was not unique; all but one of the new fifteen countries from the USSR saw income declines of 25 percent or more

25. Brazilian Economic Reforms
Brazil has always been a capitalist economy
High inflation, stagnant per capita GDP growth, several government failures caused rethinking of development strategies
New leadership and more open strategy towards trade and investment restored confidence and necessary changes in government policies brought inflation under control

26. The Next Step for the BRICs
All four of the BRICs implemented reforms
One challenge; they are not easy places to do business
Problems include
- starting new businesses
- obtaining necessary business permits
Operation, tax compliance, range of other issues make these economies a difficult challenge for businesses.

27. The Next Step for the BRICs (cont.)
State capitalism: Capitalist economies with private ownership playing a dominant role, each uses the power and authority of their national governments to control a significant share of industry
The national government uses the economy for national purposes
Less true in Brazil and India than in Russia and China

28. Why Did the USSR Collapse and China Succeed?
Dual track strategy: localized reforms to certain areas or sectors (e.g., agriculture) while maintaining traditional, central planning structures in the remainder of the economy
Proponents of rapid reform- China was special case
central planning was less extensive in China resulting in economy less distorted and less over concentrated on heavy industry
most importantly, China’s economy more agricultural

29. The BRICs in the World Economy
The BRICs have profoundly influenced the direction of world trade and investment.
As they have become more integrated with the rest of the world, multinational businesses have quickly moved to establish production and distribution networks inside the BRICs, and BRIC firms have begun to invest outside their home markets.

30. FIGURE 17.4 Trade-to-GDP Ratios

31. FIGURE 17.5 BRIC and G-7 Exports

32. Trade Patterns
Rising shares of world trade and foreign direct investment are characteristics of the BRIC economies
BRIC economies are not capable of entering the most technical and sophisticated markets on a routine basis

33. Trade Patterns (cont.)
Brazil is one of the most successful manufacturers of mid-sized commercial jet aircraft (Embraer)
China has its own space program
Russia is the lead country in the International Space Station
India is famous for its software and sophisticated business services

34. Trade Patterns (cont.)
China is not a major producer of high-technology products, but becoming more so
Indian trade has captured the world’s attention through services trade.
India’s leadership has consistently emphasized higher education and technology,
India’s Institute of Technology (IIT) is among the world’s best.

35. Trade Patterns (cont.)
India’s computer and information services include medical consultations, data entry, legal briefs, plus other activities performed at a distance and sent over the Internet to the final user
Brazilian and Russian exports depend far more than China’s and India’s on primary commodities, including oil and gas (Russia) and agricultural products (Brazil)

36. The Challenges of the BRICs in the World Economy
Those who oppose this services and IT trade fear that all work will end up in developing countries
Highly unlikely: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects significant job growth in the United States in IT-related occupations

37. The Challenges of the BRICs in the World Economy (cont.)
China’s emergence as an manufacturing export platform and high-volume manufacturer of consumer goods challenges existing trade patterns and manufacturing trends
The challenge to middle-income markets such as Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia, and Thailand; reduce their dependency on low wages as the primary source of their comparative advantage

38. The Challenges of the BRICs in the World Economy (cont.)
China has several sources of comparative advantage in manufacturing
abundance of low-wage, low-skilled labor
large domestic market with the advantage of scale economies
With growth and expansion of its middle class, the demand for manufactured goods is increasing rapidly

39. The Challenges of the BRICs in the World Economy (cont.)
A third advantage:
China’s coastal areas- potentially convenient logistics for trading internationally
China continues to invest heavily in its port facilities and coastal infrastructure to develop its geographic advantages.

40. Unresolved Issues Unbalanced trade
Competition created by the rapid growth of China’s exports has generated pressures for protectionism in a number of countries.

41. FIGURE 17.6 Current Account Balances

42. Unresolved Issues (cont.)
Unbalance trade
In 2007 the U.S. had a $268 billion merchandise trade deficit with China
Chinese savings finance U.S. government deficits
China then takes a large portion of the newly created off the market by selling bonds, known as sterilization

43. Unresolved Issues (cont.)
Environmental pressures; China will likely become a major produce of carbon dioxide
State Capitalism; Market forces are used and relied on, but when a market outcome is thought to be harmful or less beneficial to national interests, states intervene
Political reform and protest; Freer markets and access to information make it more challenging for the Communist Party to maintain social control

44. Remaining Issues
The breadth and depth of the reforms represent a break in each country’s historical path
Both are shifting from low growth, isolationist policies toward high growth and integration with the world economy
World Bank’s 2009 Doing Business Index ranks China 83rd and India 122nd out of 181 nations

45. China and India in the World Economy
Both are members of the WTO
Both have experienced tremendous export and import growth
A fundamental difference is what they trade
China’s emphasis is manufacturing
India’s emphasis is the service sector

46. The Choices Ahead
BRICs success will add pressures to limit their participation in world markets
If Chinese success in particular is frightening, Chinese failure should be seen as an even greater threat
Serious headway in addressing environmental problems minimal unless political stability and some degree of economic prosperity is achieved

47. The Choices Ahead (cont.)
Large populations of in the BRICs still live in poverty
Conditions have improved but not everyone has benefited resulting is growing dissatisfaction and rising protest in China
China’s growing inequality seen as a potential threat to the current system
India’s democratic system creates more legitimate means for changing leaders who do not deliver