6 Studied Variables Life Expectancy life-table methods Per capita income (in thousands of $) Lung Cancer (Age standardized death rate) COPD (Age standardized death rate) High-school graduates (proportion of population) PM2.5 (μg/m3) Black population (proportion of population) Population (in hundreds of thousands) 5-Year in-migration (proportion of population) Hispanic population (proportion of population) Urban residence (proportion of population)
7 First Analysis, Regression VariableSS FirstSS Last Income31.815.6 Lung Cancer22.4 5.1 COPD21.5 4.1 High School15.9 0.0 Population 9.4 5.2 PM2.5 9.4 5.8 Hispanic 4.3 2.4 Black 3.1 1.7 Urban 1.4 0.8 Migration 0.0 0.8
9 Variable Importance VariableRegressionRP Income0.33900.2108 COPD0.16210.1199 Lung Cancer0.17680.1467 PM2.50.07320.1302 High School0.09970.1066 %Black0.05370.0319 Pop Density0.04180.0793 %Hispanic0.01770.0136 Migration0.02280.0202 Urban0.01330.0105
10 East versus West Krewski et al. 2000 Health Effects In. Enstrom 2005 Inhalation Toxicology Bell et al. 2007 Env Health Pers Smith et al. 2009 Inhalation Toxicology Jerrett 2010 CARB workshop
11 Fine particles and Mortality Pope co-author, 2000.
E2 : Peto, NEJM, statins and cancer Hypothesis: The (SEAS) trial has raised the hypothesis that adding ezetimibe to statin therapy might increase the incidence of cancer.
The claim fails to replicate. The relative risk is wide (95% CI, 1.13 to 2.12; 99% CI, 1.02 to 2.33; uncorrected P = 0.006 before any allowance is made for this being the hypothesis-generating result. NB: 16 x 0.006 = 0.098. SEAS New Studies
E3: A multiple testing and modeling train wreck 1. 275 chemicals 2. 32 medical outcomes 3. 10 demographic covariates 275 x 32 = 8800 x 2^10 = ~9 million A CDC “systems” train wreck in progress! JAMA
Author Interpretation There exists an increased risk of myocardial infarction in patients exposed to abacavir and didanosine within the preceding 6 months. E4 : Bias Example: Lancet DAD study
25 E4 : BMJ versus JAMA (1) Conclusion: The risk of oesophageal cancer increased with 10 or more prescriptions for oral bisphosphonates and with prescriptions over about a five year period. BMJ 2010; 341:c4444
26 E4: BMJ versus JAMA (2) Conclusion: Oral bisphosphonates was not significantly associated with incident of esophageal or gastric cancer. JAMA 2010; 304(6): 657‐663
27 A Rorschach Test With large, complex data sets, there is enough flexibility to get what you want/need.
28 Consumer Wishes Honest science Valid claims Claims in context + and – of data and methods
29 What do we have? (Deming) A systems failure. Essentially no process control. Journals operating by “quality by inspection”. Workers are happy. Management failure.
30 What to do? Funding agencies need to require data access on publication. Editors need to give up quality by inspection require split sample strategy require number of claims at issue.
31 Statisticians Eventually society will figure it out; Scientific claims are (most) often wrong. Essentially all claims are supported by statistics. Society will ask, “Where were the statisticians?”
32 Contact Stan Young www.niss.org firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com 919 685 9328