Presentation on theme: "WinDS-H2 MODEL Wind Deployment Systems Hydrogen Model Workshop on Electrolysis Production of Hydrogen from Wind and Hydropower Walter Short Nate Blair."— Presentation transcript:
WinDS-H2 MODEL Wind Deployment Systems Hydrogen Model Workshop on Electrolysis Production of Hydrogen from Wind and Hydropower Walter Short Nate Blair September 9, 2003 NREL 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 (303) 275-3000 Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Midwest Research Institute Battelle Bechtel
Presentation Contents Background Representation of wind in WinDS Representation of hydrogen in WinDS-H2 Questions that WinDS-H2 might answer System configuration Factors considered/Assumptions/Control strategy Preliminary results Conclusions Additional Modeling Required
Background/Status Initial WinDS model did not include H2 Under development since 2002 First results for wind electricity only available in May 2003 WinDS-H2 development began in June 2003 Initial version does not consider sources of H2 other than wind Have a few preliminary results today Seeking your input on how to improve our current approach
WinDS Model A multi-regional, multi-time-period model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the U.S Designed to estimate market potential of wind energy in the U.S. for the next 20 – 50 years under different technology development and policy scenarios
WinDS is Designed to Address the Principal Market Issues for Wind Access to and cost of transmission Class 4 close to the load or class 6 far away? How much wind can be transmitted on existing lines? Will wind penetrate the market if it must cover the cost of new transmission lines? Intermittency How does wind capacity credit change with penetration? How do ancillary service requirements that increase non- linearly with market penetration impact wind viability How much would dispersal of wind sites help?
WinDS Addresses These Issues Through: Many wind supply and demand regions Constraints on existing transmission available to wind Explicit accounting for regulation and operating reserves, wind oversupply, and for wind capacity value as a function of the amount and dispersion of wind installations Tracking individual wind installations by supply/demand region, wind class and transmission line vintage
General Characteristics of WinDS Linear program optimization (cost minimization) for each of 25 two-year periods from 2000 to 2050 Sixteen time slices in each year: 4 daily and 4 seasons 4 levels of regions – wind supply/demand, power control areas, NERC areas, Interconnection areas 4 wind classes (3-6), wind on existing AC lines and wind on new transmission lines Other generation technologies – hydro, gas CT, gas CC, 4 coal technologies, nuclear, gas/oil steam
Wind Costs Cost and performance vary by wind class, and over time according to user inputs or with learning PTC or ITC with start/stop dates, term, rate Capital cost can increase with rough terrain Price penalty on capital costs for rapid national and regional growth Financing explicitly accounted for Transmission costs – Existing lines: $/kWh/mile or postage stamp New lines: $/kW/mile; penalties for rough terrain and dense population
Hydroelectricity in WinDS No capacity expansion allowed Retirements – both scheduled and unscheduled Generation constrained by water availability (set to average over last 5 years) Dispatched as needed for peaking power Not constrained by irrigation, recreation, environmental considerations, etc.
WinDS-H2 Modified form of the WinDS model that includes the on-site use of wind generated electricity to produce H2 through electrolysis Status: Initial version under development Selected preliminary results available today Seeking your comments
Questions WinDS-H2 Can Help Answer What is the market potential for H2 from wind – nationally? Regionally? What improvements are required in electrolyzers, storage, fuel cells and H2 transport to make wind- H2 competitive? Does the possibility of H2 production from wind increase the potential of wind power? What will be the principal use of H2 from wind - H2 fuel or fuel-cell-firming of wind? Will local H2-fuel demand spur much wind-H2?
Wind-H2 System Configuration Electrolyzer H2 Storage H2-fuel transport Fuel cell Transmission to Grid Compressor
H2 Factors Considered by WinDS-H2 H2 and fuel cells: Fuel cells contribute 100% to reserve margin Higher transmission line capacity factor Fuel cells contribute 100% to operating reserves Reduction in surplus wind H2 transportation fuel production Transportation cost Local vs remote transportation fuel demand
Major Assumptions in WinDS-H2 Only new wind farms have the option to produce H2, because: Power purchase agreements Wind turbine and power controls Transmission requirements There is a market for H2 fuel at a fixed price Market size varies with region Fuel cells used only to fill-in behind wind
Control Strategy Summary The fraction of each wind farm’s capacity dedicated to H2 production is the same from one year to the next The fractions of H2 sent to the fuel cell and sold as fuel are the same from one year to the next for each wind farm Size H2 storage for daily peak load use of H2 in fuel cell Generate with the fuel cell only during daily peak load period to firm up the wind generation Use fuel cell generation to provide operating reserve as required Use electrolyzers to reduce/eliminate surplus wind generation
Base Case H2 Inputs ComponentCapital CostOperating CostEfficiency Electrolyzer$600/kW$0.10/Kg0.75 Storage$100/kg$0.10/kg1.0 Fuel Cell$600/kW$2/MWh0.5 Compressor001.0 Transport$0.001/Kg/mile
Preliminary Conclusions H2 can be modeled in the WinDS model H2 from wind can be attractive at reasonable electrolyzer and fuel cell cost and performance Wind market penetration may be increased if the cost and performance of the electrolysis- fuel cell cycle can be improved
Additional Modeling Required Refine existing WinDS-H2 model Implement consensus suggestions from this workshop – both data and model Include competitive sources of H2 Distributed electrolysis Natural gas SMR Biomass Hydroelectricity