Presentation on theme: "Technology: Price Tag and Profit 2004 Beef Improvement Federation Barry H. Dunn, Ph.D. Executive Director and Endowed Chair King Ranch Institute for Ranch."— Presentation transcript:
Technology: Price Tag and Profit 2004 Beef Improvement Federation Barry H. Dunn, Ph.D. Executive Director and Endowed Chair King Ranch Institute for Ranch Management Texas A&M University Kingsville
Technology Any device, service, product, medicine, vaccination, … and now as industry production segments become aligned, any specific procedure or protocol
Adoption Rates Relatively low rates when compared to competitors, NAHMS, 1998 Rates vary between segments Rates vary within segments Market signals are changing rapidly! –Consumer preference –Animal health issues –Trade People exhibit different patterns
Influencers Dr. Chris Dinkel Dr. Wayne Purcell Dr. Harlan Hughes Dr. John Lawrence Dr. Tom Jenkins Dr. Eddie Hamilton Dr. John Sterman Professor Jay Forrestor M. B. Johnson
“Real” Retail Price of Beef Domestic Production Tons of Beef 1974 2004 US Cattle Inventory “Economic History of the Cattle Industry According to … ”
“Real” Retail Price of Beef Domestic Production Tons of Beef 1974 2004 US Cattle Inventory “Economic History of the Cattle Industry According to Me”
Goals for Today: To put the $ of Technology in Context 1.Partial Budgets are partial budgets 2.Measuring impact at the payoff point 3.Costs and benefits change with different levels of production 4.Impact can be different on firm vs. industry 5.Unexpected outcomes shouldn’t be unexpected 6.The future value of technology needs to be discounted
Most Widely Used Tool in Evaluation Partial Budget Technology: Additional Costs:Additional Revenues: Reduced Revenue:Reduced Costs: A. Total additional costs andB. Total additional revenues and reduced revenue $ reduced costs $ Net Change in Profit (B-A)
Positives and Limitations Positive: –Easy to use –Straight forward –Shows costs and benefits Doesn’t Measure: –Risk –Affect on Cash Flow –Quality of Life –Inter-relationships –Fixed costs are often understated or ignored –Unexpected outcomes –Efficiency
In the Partial Budget process: Variable Costs are most commonly evaluated: –Often on a per head basis BUT, how much did the technology change pounds available to sell? AND, what did it cost per cwt. sold? BECAUSE, small changes can get washed out over time. Changes in Fixed Costs are often glossed over!
Where to Measure Impact? At the end of the production cycle! Impact of calf-hood implant on a yearling? Value of using a sire with superior carcass traits to an operation that sells at weaning? Benefits of estrus synchronization? –# of females: cycling, bred, Preg., Calving in days? –%of females: cycling, bred, Preg.? –Lbs weaned per cow exposed? –Value of uniformity? –Value of future benefits?
The Correct End Point? The Point of Sale! Correct Feedback is Critical! –For example: Fixed costs are $100/Beginning Year Breeding Female –If you can produce the same # of weaned pounds with 10% fewer cows: Fixed costs per cow go up! Fixed costs per cwt remain the same!
Systems Preg % Semen Costs $3/Unit $13/Unit $23/Unit Labor Cost ($/hour) 5.7710.7715.775.7710.7715.775.7710.7715.77 CoSync407.828.318.8110.510.9711.4713.1313.6314.13 Co Sync505.365.856.358.018.519.0110.6711.1711.67 Co Sync604.845.345.837.508.008.4910.1610.6511.15 SelSync407.047.908.768.569.4210.2810.0810.9411.80 SelSync504.715.576.436.617.478.338.519.3710.23 SelSync604.335.196.056.617.478.338.899.7510.61 500 lb Equivalent Weaned Calf Breeding Costs per cwt for a Herd Size of 100 at Various Labor and Semen Costs. (Johnson, 2002)
Dystocia + Weaning Weight Total Lbs Weaned + - Calf Death Loss + B Causal Loop Diagram Birth Weight + + R
The Future Value of Today's Technology Because of extended production cycle, our industry needs to use “Net Present Value” as we evaluate change – V n = V 0 (1 + i ) n –Used extensively in planning scenarios – Relies heavily on accurate data and trend analysis – Responsibility of….? Provider of technology User of technology
Age of Cow NPV, Current Market NPV, Low Point Market Remaining Life (yr)$ 1783.53599.694 21,026.86794.364 31,145.81909.785 41,210.20954.466 51,170.59936.696 61,088.04874.935 71,068.73853.355 81,027.38797.325 9979.12714.824 10899.87612.884 11794.09480.573 12734.60431.322 NPV for Cattle of Ages 1- 12yr for 2 Market Scenarios (Meek, et al, 1999)
Real $ Retail Beef Net Present Value Beef Production Cattle Cycle Cyclical Drought Competing Meats
A Systems Approach Describe the situation Examine mental models Measure and define criteria –Place things in context! Use Causal Loop Diagrams Develop simulation models
Summary Technologies need to be placed in context! Partial Budgets are partial budgets Measure impact at the payoff point Costs and benefits change with different levels of production Impact can be different on firm vs. industry Unexpected outcomes shouldn’t be unexpected The future value of technology needs to be discounted
The Challenge Technology can be used not only to increase and improve: –Production –Efficiency –Consumer Acceptance But also to: –Improve Nutritive Value –Address Environmental Challenges