Introduction WP2 Objectives of the WP2 Indepth market understanding as foundation for an enhancement of MBMS Current and future technology drivers Development of innovative business models Activity 2.1: Market requirements and scenario definition Activity 2.2: Technical requirements Activity 2.3: Business Models
Milestones WP 2 MilestoneDescriptionStatus M2.1 Future MBMS service scenarios and draft market requirements defined M2.2 Final version of technical requirements included in D2.2 M2.3Results on detailed market anaylsis M2.4 Final version of scenarios and market requirements D2.2 M12 M2.5Draft on alternative business modelsM14 M2.6 Final version of alternative business models to be included in D2.3 M21
Dissemination Submission of two papers with results from WP2 to the 16 th IST Mobile & Wireless Communications Summit “Understanding Today's Mobile Users' Expectations of Tomorrow's Mobile Services” “The Impact of Interactivity on Mobile Broadcasting Activities” Submission to “Bled” “Mobile Web 2.0”
Timeline Activity 2.1 Activity 2.2 Activity 2.3 Market requirements and scenario definition Technical requirements Business Models D 2.1 M0M6M12M18M21 D 2.2 D 2.3
Research Framework Features of the specific medium Features of the specific product Societal Environment legal, ethical and social aspects Value Chain Potential Customers Financial Flow Flow of Goods and Services A2.1 A2.3 A2.2
Method Activity 2.1 Deliverable 2.2 “Scenarios and the Market Requirements” Goal: Identifying the User Requirements Primary Qualitative Market Research Primary Quantitative Market Research
Method Scope of Activity 2.1 Focus groups Expert Interviews Desk research User requirements Market requirements Business requirements Scenario Definition validation Business model Quantitative Research Value Chain
Focus of desk research Success factors mobile service Success factors Mobile TV Usage scenarios Expert interviews Success factors mobile service Success factors Mobile TV Usage scenarios Technology Future market development Technology Literature review Market understanding Technology Usage scenarios Results Target groups Success factors
TV Target Groups Young, technology affine Main Stream Silver Hair Moms Conser- vatives Skeptics The target group is defined in accordance with the maturity of the service. The value proposition determines the target group. Mobile
Development path Different future scenarios will determine the mobile services.
Expert interviews - method Explorative expert interviews Selection of experts Experts were interviewed according the interview guidelines The essence of the interview statements were collected. The questionaire was then interative enhanced based on the results
Expert interviews - Result Services Mobile TV is seen as „Killer App“ Development Path – other applications will follow Earning Logic Hybrid payment models Legal DRM Licenses Copyrights Target Groups Young and technical affine consumers Players MNOs Technology DVB-H DMB MBMS (long-term) Confirmation of the desk research Identification of additional relevant aspects
Expert interviews - Result Regulation MBMS is not regulated DVB-H, DMB is regulated in terms of content programs (in France the authorities determine the available programs) Roaming Roaming is certainly a consumer requirement The distribution rights for most of the contents are national Access to the core infrastructure of a remote network Strategic aspects Lessons learnt from current mobile services: „Mobile TV“ as message for the consumer Focus of the communication on known services „TV“ rather than Mobile Broadband
The 5 Scenarios Scenario 1: Interactive Mobile TV Interactive Mobile TV brings the benefits and the ease of use of digital TV to mobile phones. Scenario 2: Real-Life Tagging Real-Life Tagging provides context sensitive information where and when the user needs it. Scenario 3: Content Casts Content Casts provide access to the latest information anytime and anywhere without the need for manual searches. Scenario 4: Mobile Community Platform The Mobile Community Platform allows social networks anywhere and anytime without the need for a computer. Scenario 5: Visual Radio Visual Radio is the visual enhancement of traditional radio.
Qualitative Market Research Focus Groups - Method Content: –Interactivity Features –Five of the scenarios that have been developed Goals: –Identifying the scenarios with the biggest/lowest potential –Identifying the important aspects to be asked in the quantitative research Four Focus Groups conducted –Two in St. Gallen –One in Paris (France Télécom) –One in Bonn (Deutsche Welle)
Focus Groups more than half of the participants have never used a mobile data service results do not reflect experiences of the participants but expectations an prejudices
Focus Groups Results Reasons, why current non-users are hesitant to even try new mobile services. General distrust in the quality and usefulness of mobile data services Price, lack of transparency and the payment model (everybody wants a flat-fee model) Ease of use: The screen is too small, input is cumbersome, the service is not robust enough. Users want to kill time. No films, but Sports and news, packaged in short clips No “Involvement” wanted – short clips, no interactivity! Recording yes, but “one-click” in the EPG. Disappointed in the past. (WAP, UMTS) People don’t know about the service or how it could be used
Focus Groups Results Aspects that got participants excited: Everything that was location aware –personalized city tour –games that include the real world –etc. Podcasts (or similar) directly to the mobile device “one-click” downloads of e.g. MP3s in Mobile TV or radio “one-click” shopping of tickets e.g. of an artist/group that is on the radio Real Life Tagging
Quantitative Market Research Online survey Two Parts: A) Based on an adapted version of the “Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) for Mobile Services” B) Conjoint Analysis Goals: Quantitative test of the attractiveness of the scenarios (Part A) Which features are the most appreciated ones? (Part B)
TAM for Mobile Services Perceived Value Perceived Ease of Use Intention to Use Trust Perceived Ease of Adoption Taking into Use Usage Behaviour Suggested Extension: Social Influence based on TAM for Mobile Services: Kaasinen, 2005 (based on Venkatesh, 2003 and others) = “the degree to which a person believes that using a particular system would be free from effort” = “positive belief about the perceived reliability of, dependability of, and confidence in a person, object or process” = “... taking the service into use” = “the key features of the services that are apreciated by the users and other stakeholders...” = “the degree to which an individual perceives that important others believe he r she should use the system”
Online Survey Results 5 Scenarios Results varied greatly between the different cultures Scenario 5 (Visual Radio) is the preferred scenario in the English questionnaire, but ranks 4th in the French and last in the German one. Scenario 2 (Real-Life Tagging) is the highest ranked one in the German questionnaire (2nd in the French) but last in the English one.
Online Survey Results Conjoint Analysis The "importance of the attribute" explains to which degree the user's opinion is determined by the particular factor. The final utility explains the preferences concerning the individual factors. Its values are between -2.5 and 2.5, where -2.5 means that they completely dislike the factor compared to others and 2.5 means the completely prefer the factor compared to other factors.
Online Survey Results A slide with the final results will be added as soon as the questionnaire is taken offline...
Online Survey Results Using the results from the conjoint analysis successful factors can be chosen to compile a mobile service. Examples could look as follows: Service A is a news service that delivers content in response to the users location. The service is available for a monthly subscription. (Location Awareness, News, monthly subscription) Service B allows users to surf the web and use instant messaging on their mobile devices. It is also available for a monthly description and has music downloads. (Instant Messaging, Web Surfing, Music, monthly subscription)
A 2.2 / D2.1 Methodology Usage scenario analysis & classification Extraction of key commercial requirements for stakeholders (user, Mobile Network, Content Provider) Mapping of commercial requirements into high level technical requirements Standardisation analysis Technical limitations of the current MBMS features wrt high level requirements Mapping of high level technical requirements into technical requirements per sub-system (User) & handset MNO –MNO's Access Network –MNO's Core Network Application Content Provider
Requirements Content Provider Application MNO's Core Network MNO's Access Network (User) & handset Simple Communication Complex Communication User Generated Invetigation of each array according to derive the technical requirements.
D2.1 Scenarios and Technical Requirements RAN Enhancements WP3 Applications and Content WP5 Core Network Enhancements W4 Technical Requirements on Access Network D2.1 – Interaction with WPs Technical Requirements on Core Network & Applications Technical Requirements on Applications & Content
Background The identification of feasible business models require a sophisticated evaluation method Traditional evaluation approaches seem to have weaknesses (focus on particular issues) System theoretical approach (Activity 2.2) Evaluating different alternatives of implementing business models Selection of the most successful application
Simulation Development method
Example: SeeMeTV Business Simulation Possible key results: Impact of the different factors Timing Validity of assumptions
Status Extenstive literature research on business model evaluation Elaboration of the research methods Preperation of case studies with C-Mobile Partners (H3G, Orange/FT)