1. Sustainable Mobility Prof. Dr. Philip J. Vergragt, DfS, Delft University of Technology 27 March 2002 Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisboa

2. Sustainable Mobility 1. Introduction; Dutch Transition Management 2. Visioning and Small Scale Experiments 3. Ph.D., AIDE, and M.Sc projects at TU Delft 4. Lessons learned and further research

3. 1. Dutch Transition Management Persistent environmental problems: CO2, 80-90 % reduction necessary Existing policy instruments do not work enough Need for European and world-wide approach Transitions and system innovations are necessary

4. 1. Dutch Transition Management (2) Transitions: large scale societal changes including technology, culture, institutions, behaviour, and values Slow societal processes towards a more sustainable situation Present dominant car transportation regime is locked-in in an unsustainable mode Role of government as to transitions is not yet clear: facilitating, initiating, giving direction, creating sense of urgency…?

5. Transitions: CO2 neutral energy

6. 1. Dutch Transition Management (3) 4 transitions are mentioned in National Environmental Policy Plan-4 (2001) Energy Mobility Agriculture Biodiversity

7. 1. Dutch Transition Management (4) Our hypothesis: visioning combined with small scale experiments is a necessary first step (Vergragt, Brown, Green) Visioning: SusHouse and Kathalys projects Hypothesis: in visioning and small scale experiments learning among stakeholders takes place Second order learning is a necessary condition for regime shift and escaping from lock-in Implementation of regime shift is less explored area (Kathalys experiences)

8. 2. Visioning and Small Scale Experiments Visioning: together with stakeholders brainstorming about future mobility scenarios Visioning exercises have been performed in STD Programme, SusHouse Project, IEEP Delhi project, and at INETI (Sustainable surface protection for car bodies) Visioning results in sets of ideas which need to be translated into scenarios Scenarios need to be assessed with respect to environmental gain, business viability, and consumer acceptance (SusHouse method)

9. STD Program: factor 20 Factor 20 was defined by the following equation: YearEBMPr WP 2000: 1=1x1x1 2050:½=1/20x5x2 EB=Environmental Burden M=Metabolism; environmental burden per unit of need fulfillment Pr=Level of production and consumption WP=World Population

10. Time horizons factor 20 1 20002050 End of pipe technologies; Good house keeping; ecodesign Technological innovation; from products to services System innovation; transitions

11. Back-casting 20002050 factor 20 1 Creativity workshop Back-casting; Action planning Short-term project 1. 2. 3.

12. SusHouse Methodology Develop future visions in creativity workshops with stakeholders Derive Design Orienting Scenarios (DOSs) from future visions Environmental, economic assessments, and consumer acceptance research of DOSs and proposals Back-casting and implementation workshops with stakeholders

13. 2.The Kathalys method Kathalysis means: acceleration of chemical reaction Kathalys is collaboration between TNO- Industry and TU Delft-Design for Sustainability since 1998 Funded by VROM and EZ aim: implementation of sustainable products and services on the market

14. The Kathalys method 5 phases: 1Future exploration 2.System Design 3.Product/service specification 4.Drawing in Detail and testing 5Implementation

15. Kathalys-method: 2 5 tracks: a. Development of Product/service combination b. Sustainability c. The organisation d. The user e. The economic feasibility

16. Problems with SusHouse follow-up and Kathalys Visioning is relatively easy; enrolling stakeholders in visioning is more time consuming Developing stable business alliances is problematic Implementation in practice is problematic Little systematic learning takes place; monitoring is costly Government does not (yet?) foster systematically small-scale learning processes (niche management)

17. 3. Ph.D. AIDE, and M.Sc projects at DfS/TUD 1. Hydrogen fuel cells: car companies strategies (Robert van den Hoed) 2. System innovation for sustainable mobility: the Mitka case (Luca Berchicci) 3. Sustainable Mobility in Delhi (Sateesh Kumar Beella) 4. Sustainable surface protection: a back- casting study (Paulo Partidario)

18. Automotive strategies / FC > $50M $50M - $100 $100M - $250 $250M – 500M > $500M Extensive outsourcin g Strong collaboration In-house core technology development General Motors, Toyota, Honda Daimler- Chrysler FordNissan, BMW, Mazda, Hyundai Renault, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi Volvo, PSA, Suzuki Fiat, Daewoo, Fuji Mitsubishi

19. Explaining factors Strategy differences Available fin. resources Regulatory pressure Company culture  Firm internal technology network  Top management support Competencies External network forces

21. 3. Ph.D., AIDE, and M.Sc projects at DfS/TUD (2) 5. Sustainable transportation in Delft: the case of automatic guided vehicles (Adele Elemans) 6. Bicycles and public transportation chain combinations (Mathieu Worm) 7. Sustainable Central Station Rotterdam (Bastiaan van de Werk) 8. Sustainable Olympic Games (AIDE, 2001) 9. Sustainable Texel transportation (AIDE, 2001) 10. Sustainable shopping logistics (AIDE, 2001) 11. Sustainable petrol station (Ivo Leeflang, Shell)

22. Mobility system Parking Bus Shuttle Park&Drive Bus Ferry Tex Wheeler Busses Taxis Bikes

23. Local distribution system Scenario Generation Final Scenario

24. 4. Lessons learned and further research Currently many areas of research: Car fueling and fuel infrastructure (H) Substitution for short distance car transportation (Mitka, improved bicycle) System change in mobility structure (Delhi and Mitka: Texel, Hilversun) Car body surface protection: from paint to no paint at all or surface PV cells

25. 4. Lessons learned and further research (2) Infrastructure as an object of study (car fuel, Mitka, Central Station, Automatic guided vehicles, bicycles) Services as an object of study: Mitka, automatic guided vehicles, bicycles and public transport) Technological trajectories and regime shifts: Hydrogen propulsion, Mitka construction

26. 4. Lessons learned and further research (3) Methodological research: How to organize visioning effectively and not only at the beginning, but also during an innovation process? Stakeholder management: how to select, organize, keep together, and get rid of… Implementation: how to overcome initial barriers; how to enroll powerful stakeholders Sustainability: how to monitor and steer?

27. 4. Lessons learned and further research (4) Theoretical research: Learning processes with stakeholders Conditions for successful regime shifts Social Networks as conditional for implementation

28. Questions and Comments?