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IPCC AR4 to AR5. Terminology Unchanged – GCMs – General Circulation Models AR4 – SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios AR5 – SSPs – Shared Socioeconomic.

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Presentation on theme: "IPCC AR4 to AR5. Terminology Unchanged – GCMs – General Circulation Models AR4 – SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios AR5 – SSPs – Shared Socioeconomic."— Presentation transcript:

1 IPCC AR4 to AR5

2 Terminology Unchanged – GCMs – General Circulation Models AR4 – SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios AR5 – SSPs – Shared Socioeconomic Pathways – RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways – RAPs – Representative Agricultural Pathways

3 How are these terms related? SSP RCP SRES (A1B, B1, etc.) RAPs IPRs from IMPACT

4 RCP 2.6 is below anything from AR4 RCP 6 is most similar to A1B RCP 8.5 is higher than anything AR4 RCPs

5 RCP – Trends

6 RCP Details DescriptionIA ModelPublication – IA Model RCP8.5Rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8.5 W/m2 in MESSAGERiahi et al. (2007) Rao & Riahi (2006) RCP6Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 6 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100 AIMFujino et al. (2006) Hijioka et al. (2008) RCP4.5Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 4.5 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100 GCAM (MiniCAM)Smith and Wigley (2006) Clarke et al. (2007) Wise et al. (2009) RCP2.6Peak in radiative forcing at ~ 3 W/m2 before 2100 and decline IMAGEvan Vuuren et al. (2006; 2007)

7 Climate impacts under RCP GFDL

8 Climate impacts under RCP HadGem

9 Climate impacts under RCP IPSL

10 Climate impacts under RCP MIROC

11 SSP1 – Low Challenges SSP2 – Intermediate Challenges, business as usual (med-med) SSP3 – High Challenges SSP4 – Adaptation Challenges Dominates SSP5 – Mitigation Challenges Dominates SSPs

12 SSPs are separated from emissions, but not all SSPs are compatible with all RCPs Combining SSPs with RCPs


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