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**Lecture 9: Smoothing and filtering data**

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Time series: smoothing, filtering, rejecting outliers, interpolation moving average, splines, penalized splines, wavelets autocorrelation in time series variance increase, pattern generation; ar(), arima() … Image data

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-- OMS -- QCLS

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sig=5 x0=1:100; y0=1/(sig*sqrt(2*pi))*exp(-(x0-50)^2/(2*sig^2)) plot(x0,y0,type="l",col="green",lwd=3,ylim=c(-.02,.1)) #add noise to y0 x=x0; y=y0+rnorm(100)/50 points(x,y,pch=16,type="o”)

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--- 5 pt moving average

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pt moving average

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**Some signal filtering concepts:**

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**“What is” “feed-forward”?**

particular example, feed forward is not too severe, but it can be “What is” “feed-forward”?

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More advanced filters. Splines: Splines use a collection of basis functions (usually polynomials of order 3 or 4) to represent a functional form for the time series to be filtered. They are fitted piecewise, so that they are locally determined. We choose K points in the interior of the domain (“knots”) and subdivide into K+1 intervals. spline of order m: piecewise m – 1 degree polynomial, continuous thru m – 2 derivatives. Continuous derivatives gives a smooth function. More complex shapes emerge as we increase the degree of the spline and/or add knots. Few knots/low degree: Functions may be too restrictive (biased) or smooth Many knots/high degree: Risk of overfitting, false maxima, etc Penalized Splines add a penalty for curvature, specifying the strength λ. (=0, regular spline/interpolation; = ∞, straight line, linear regression fit)

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**More advanced filters (continued). Locally-weighted least-squares **

(“lowess”, “loess”): fit a polynomial (usually a straight line) to points in a sliding window, accepting as the smoothed value the central point on the line, with a taper to capture the ends. Points are usually weighted inversely as a function of distance, very often tri-cubic: (1 - |x|3)3 <in range -1,1 of the window> Savitsky-Golay filter: Fits a polynomial of order n in a moving window, requiring that the fitted curve at each point have the same moments as the original data to order n-1. Partakes of lowess and penalized spline features. (Designed for integrating chromatographic peaks.) Nomencature: ( n.nl.nr.o). Allows direct computation of the derivatives. Parameters are tabulated on the web or computed. add Gaussian wavelets and Haar wavelets and first derivative Gaussian wavelets

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**sig noisy_sig 10-point MA savgol.4.11.11.0 lowess pspline supsmu**

NA NA

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**rough! noise is reduced….**

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**others not worth trying…**

others not worth trying….You expect attenuation, within that envelop, this is OK – penalized spline wins

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#Summary: #X Moving Average: crude, phase shift, peaks severely flattened, ends discarded <Don't use> ## Centered Moving Average: crude, peaks severely flattened, no phase shift*, feed forward >, ends discarded ## Block Averages: not too crude, not phase shifted*, no feed forward*, conserved properties*, information discarded (Maybe OK) ##Savitzky-Golay: not crude, not phase shifted*, small feed forward (localized), conserved properties, ends discarded; derivative ##locally weighted least squares (lowess/loess): not crude or phase shifted, nice taper at ends, no derivative ##supsmu: analytical properties murky, but a nice smoother for many signals; no derivative ##penalized splines: effective, differentiable; adjusting the parameters may be tricky #Xregular splines: either false maxima, or oversmoothed--<Don't use> Packages: pspline; sm; sreg (fields);

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**Assessing different sources of variance: **

EPS 236 Workshop: 2014 Assessing different sources of variance: Extracting Trends, Cycles, etc by Data Filtering and Conditional Averaging. CO2 Measurement has high signal-to-noise ratio, but the system (e.g. the atmosphere) has a lot of variability. Measurement has low signal-to-noise ratio.

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“Ancillary measurements”, conditional sampling and suitable filtering or averaging reveals the key features of the data when system variability is the key factor. Zum=tapply(wlef[,"value"],list(wlef[,"yr"],wlef[,"mo"],wlef[,"hr"],wlef[,"ht(magl)"]),median,na.rm=T)

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**Noisy data: which filter is the “best” (for what purpose?)?**

Residuals? Events ?

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If spar is given: Leave-one-out cross-validation In the default mode, the sm.spline model is selected using “leave-one-out cross-validation”. See article by Rob Hyndman (http://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/crossvalidation/) for a description. Kalman filter

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**Interpolation: linear (approx; predict.loess)**

penalized splines (akima’s aspline)

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**XX=HIPPO.1.1[lsel&l.uct,"UTC"]**

YY=HIPPO.1.1[lsel&l.uct,"CO2_OMS"] ZZ=HIPPO.1.1[lsel&l.uct,"CO2_QCLS"] YY[1379:1387] = NA require(pspline) lna1=!is.na(YY) YY.i=approx(x=XX[lna1],y=YY[lna1],xout=XX) YY.spl=sm.spline(XX[lna1],YY[lna1]) require(akima) YY.aspline= aspline(XX[lna1],YY[lna1],xout=XX) #YY.lowess=lowess(XX[lna1],YY[lna1],f=.1) ddd=data.frame(x=XX[lna1],y=YY[lna1]) YY.loess=loess(y ~ x,data=ddd,span=.055) YY.loess.pred=predict(YY.loess,newdata=data.frame(x=XX,y=YY))

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**Minimize CV for “best” model**

“Leave-one-out” CV Source: Minimize CV for “best” model

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