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Chapter 13 Comparing Two Populations: Independent Samples

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Comparing more than 1 group Often psychologists are interested in comparing treatments, procedures, or conditions –Which drug is better in treating depression, Prozac or Zoloft? –Is the whole-language approach to teaching reading more effective than traditional methods?

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A Research Study We are interested in the treatment of major depression Compare two drug therapies, Prozac and Zoloft Randomly select 16 people with major depression, 8 receive Prozac, 8 receive Zoloft

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Measuring Depression Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) developed by Aaron Beck and his colleagues An “inventory” is a series of questions that are answered by the patient and the patient’s doctor Each answer contributes to an overall score That score is a “measure” of depression

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Scores on the BDI Prozac Group 37 33 41 37 48 40 31 37 Zoloft Group 36 39 44 49 41 48 44 35

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Hypothesis test of Prozac vs. Zoloft 1. State and Check Assumptions –Normally distributed? - don’t know –σ? – don’t know –Interval data ? - probably –Independent Random sample? - yes

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Hypothesis test of Prozac vs. Zoloft 2.Hypotheses H O : μ 1 = μ 2 (the effectiveness Prozac and Zoloft are the same) μ 1 - μ 2 = 0 (the difference between the effectiveness of Prozac and Zoloft is 0) H A : μ 1 ≠ μ 2 (the effectiveness of Prozac and Zoloft are not equal) μ 1 - μ 2 ≠ 0 (there is a difference between the effectiveness Prozac and Zoloft)

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Hypothesis test of Prozac vs. Zoloft 3.Choose test statistic –parameter of interest - μ –2 groups independent samples –Not sure about Normal Distribution –Don’t know Population Standard Deviation

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Hmm… What do we know about μ 1 – μ 2 ? What do we know about M 1 – M 2 ? Since we don’t know μ 1 or μ 2, we’ll concentrate on M 1 – M 2

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Sampling Distribution The sampling distribution of M 1 – M 2 would help us predict values from random samples Three facts: –1. The mean of the M 1 – M 2 sampling distribution is equal to the mean of the sampling distribution of μ 1 – μ 2 –2. When the 2 populations have the same variance, then the standard deviation of the sampling distribution is –3. CLT

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So… If we knew σ, we could transform the statistic M 1 – M 2 to a z score and use table A, but We don’t know σ But we know s 1 and s 2, that is, the standard deviations of the two samples Can we use them?

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NO Not with a z, But we can use a t distribution That is to say: the differences in sample means, divided by the estimated SEM, is distributed as a t

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t-test for 2 independent samples

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Estimate of the Standard Error

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Sampling Distribution The sampling distribution of M 1 – M 2 would help us predict values from random samples Three facts: –1. The mean of the M 1 – M 2 sampling distribution is equal to the mean of the sampling distribution of μ 1 – μ 2 –2. When the 2 populations have the same variance, then the standard deviation of the sampling distribution is –3. CLT

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Hypothesis test of Prozac vs. Zoloft 1. State and Check Assumptions –Normally distributed? - don’t know –σ? – don’t know –Interval data ? - probably –Independent Random sample? – yes –Homogeneity of Variance (HoV): are the variances of the two population equal? – don’t know, but we’ll assume they are (can we check this out?)

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Estimate of the Standard Error

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More on the estimated SEM s 2 p is called “pooled variance” it is the variance of the two samples, put together, or pooled s 2 1 (n 1 -1) looks familiar, doesn’t it? (it’s variance times n-1)

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SS(X 1 ), right? s 2 1 (n 1 -1) = SS(X 1 ) Thus:

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df in a 2-sample t-test Since the calculation of each mean has n -1 degrees of freedom, then The 2-sample t-test has (n 1 -1) + (n 2 - 1) df, or df = n 1 + n 2 - 2

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estimated SEM, again So, when we left the est SEM, we had: But, n 1 + n 2 – 2 = df, right? Thus:

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Back to the hypothesis test 4.Set Significance Level α =.05 Critical Value Non-directional Hypothesis with df = n 1 + n 2 - 2 = 8 + 8 - 2 = 14 From Table C t crit = 2.145, so we reject H O if t ≤ - 2.145 or t ≥ 2.145

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Hypothesis test of Prozac vs. Zoloft 5.Compute Statistic –We need:

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Scores on the BDI Prozac Group 37 33 41 37 48 40 31 37 Zoloft Group 36 39 44 49 41 48 44 35

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Hypothesis test of Prozac vs. Zoloft 6. Draw Conclusions –because our t does not fall within the rejection region, we cannot reject the H O, and –conclude that we did not find any evidence that Prozac and Zoloft are different in their effectiveness to treat depression

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What if? What if we have unequal sample sizes?

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Unequal Sample Sizes In the previous example, n 1 = n 2 = 8, but What if n 1 ≠ n 2 ? In this case we make an adjustment to the calculation of the SEM But, since we calculate the pooled variance (a weighted mean), we’re OK

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Just so we’re on the same page If n 1 is larger than n 2, then n 1 - 1 will be larger than n 2 - 1 This is larger than that

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So… If n 1 is larger than n 2, then s 1 2 (n 1 - 1) will be weighted more than s 2 2 (n 2 - 1) This is weighted more than that

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This makes sense If we make the homogeneity of variance assumption (the sampled populations have the same variance), then The best estimate of the population standard deviation will use information from both samples, But when we have more observations in one sample than the other, than we have more information from that sample than the other We should use that additional information, which is precisely what weighting accomplishes

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Effect size estimates After conducting a t-test, you should report: –t –df –p But, it is becoming a standard practice to report effect size as well (Cohen’s d is a good measure)

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Effect Size review Effect size – the strength of the relationship (between IV and DV) in the population, or, the degree of departure from the null hypothesis Important points: –rejecting the null hypothesis doesn’t imply a large effect, and –failing to reject the null does not mean a small effect

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Example (from Rosenthal and Rosnow, 1991 – a great book on research methodology) Smith conducts an experiment with 40 learning disabled children –half undergo special training (“experimental group”) and – half receive no special training (“control group”) She reports that the experimental group improved more than the control group (p <.05)

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But Jones is skeptical about Smith’s results and attempts to repeat (replicate) the experiment with 20 children, –half in the experimental and –half in the control group He reports a p >.10, and claims that Smith’s results are not-replicable

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The Data Smith ’ s ResultsJones ’ Results t(38) = 1.85t(18) = 1.27 p <.05, Reject Hop >.10, Don’t Reject d =.15 power =.33power =.18

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As you can see Even though Jones did not reject the null hypothesis, he had the same effect size as Smith Jones lacked power (but Smith had pretty low power as well)

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Statistic = Effect Size X Size of Study

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Statistic = effect size X size of study

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And, if

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What if one or more of the assumptions are violated? Gross, meaning large, violations may cause the real α to be different from the stated significance level Gross violations of the normality and H of V assumptions will cause these problems with a t-test

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Alternative Test When gross violations of the assumptions of normality or variance with a 2-independent samples t-test becomes apparent, Use a Rank Sum T test

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Rank Sum T test Rank all the scores (across both groups) Sum the ranks of each group (T = the sum of the ranks of group 1) Turns out that the T sampling distribution is approximately normal

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Rank Sum T test

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When to use Rank SumT Turns out, the t-test is fairly ROBUST to violations of HoV. But not large violations… What is a large violation of HoV? Recommendation: greater than 10x, use Rank Sum…

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