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Hal Varian Intermediate Microeconomics Chapter Ten Intertemporal Choice.

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1 Hal Varian Intermediate Microeconomics Chapter Ten Intertemporal Choice

2 u Persons often receive income in “lumps”; e.g. monthly salary. u How is a lump of income spread over the following month (saving now for consumption later)? u Or how is consumption financed by borrowing now against income to be received at the end of the month?

3 Present and Future Values u Begin with some simple financial arithmetic. u Take just two periods; 1 and 2. u Let r denote the interest rate per period.

4 Future Value u E.g., if r = 0.1 then $100 saved at the start of period 1 becomes $110 at the start of period 2. u The value next period of $1 saved now is the future value of that dollar.

5 Future Value u Given an interest rate r the future value one period from now of $1 is u Given an interest rate r the future value one period from now of $m is

6 Present Value u Suppose you can pay now to obtain $1 at the start of next period. u What is the most you should pay? u $1? u No. If you kept your $1 now and saved it then at the start of next period you would have $(1+r) > $1, so paying $1 now for $1 next period is a bad deal.

7 Present Value u Q: How much money would have to be saved now, in the present, to obtain $1 at the start of the next period? u A: $m saved now becomes $m(1+r) at the start of next period, so we want the value of m for which m(1+r) = 1 That is, m = 1/(1+r), the present-value of $1 obtained at the start of next period.

8 Present Value u The present value of $1 available at the start of the next period is u And the present value of $m available at the start of the next period is

9 Present Value u E.g., if r = 0.1 then the most you should pay now for $1 available next period is u And if r = 0.2 then the most you should pay now for $1 available next period is

10 The Intertemporal Choice Problem u Let m 1 and m 2 be incomes received in periods 1 and 2. u Let c 1 and c 2 be consumptions in periods 1 and 2. u Let p 1 and p 2 be the prices of consumption in periods 1 and 2.

11 The Intertemporal Choice Problem u The intertemporal choice problem: Given incomes m 1 and m 2, and given consumption prices p 1 and p 2, what is the most preferred intertemporal consumption bundle (c 1, c 2 )? u For an answer we need to know: – the intertemporal budget constraint – intertemporal consumption preferences.

12 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u To start, let’s ignore price effects by supposing that p 1 = p 2 = $1.

13 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u Suppose that the consumer chooses not to save or to borrow. u Q: What will be consumed in period 1? u A: c 1 = m 1. u Q: What will be consumed in period 2? u A: c 2 = m 2.

14 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m2m2 m1m1 0 0

15 c1c1 c2c2 So (c 1, c 2 ) = (m 1, m 2 ) is the consumption bundle if the consumer chooses neither to save nor to borrow. m2m2 m1m1 0 0

16 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u Now suppose that the consumer spends nothing on consumption in period 1; that is, c 1 = 0 and the consumer saves s 1 = m 1. u The interest rate is r. u What now will be period 2’s consumption level?

17 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u Period 2 income is m 2. u Savings plus interest from period 1 sum to (1 + r )m 1. u So total income available in period 2 is m 2 + (1 + r )m 1. u So period 2 consumption expenditure is

18 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u Period 2 income is m 2. u Savings plus interest from period 1 sum to (1 + r )m 1. u So total income available in period 2 is m 2 + (1 + r )m 1. u So period 2 consumption expenditure is

19 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m2m2 m1m1 0 0 the future-value of the income endowment

20 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m2m2 m1m1 0 0 is the consumption bundle when all period 1 income is saved.

21 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u Now suppose that the consumer spends everything possible on consumption in period 1, so c 2 = 0. u What is the most that the consumer can borrow in period 1 against her period 2 income of $m 2 ? u Let b 1 denote the amount borrowed in period 1.

22 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u Only $m 2 will be available in period 2 to pay back $b 1 borrowed in period 1. u So b 1 (1 + r ) = m 2. u That is, b 1 = m 2 / (1 + r ). u So the largest possible period 1 consumption level is

23 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u Only $m 2 will be available in period 2 to pay back $b 1 borrowed in period 1. u So b 1 (1 + r ) = m 2. u That is, b 1 = m 2 / (1 + r ). u So the largest possible period 1 consumption level is

24 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m2m2 m1m1 0 0 is the consumption bundle when all period 1 income is saved. the present-value of the income endowment

25 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m2m2 m1m1 0 0 is the consumption bundle when period 1 borrowing is as big as possible. is the consumption bundle when period 1 saving is as large as possible.

26 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u Suppose that c 1 units are consumed in period 1. This costs $c 1 and leaves m 1 - c 1 saved. Period 2 consumption will then be

27 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u Suppose that c 1 units are consumed in period 1. This costs $c 1 and leaves m 1 - c 1 saved. Period 2 consumption will then be which is        slopeintercept

28 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m2m2 m1m1 0 0 is the consumption bundle when period 1 borrowing is as big as possible. is the consumption bundle when period 1 saving is as large as possible.

29 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m2m2 m1m1 0 0 slope = -(1+r)

30 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m2m2 m1m1 0 0 Saving Borrowing slope = -(1+r)

31 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint is the “future-valued” form of the budget constraint since all terms are in period 2 values. This is equivalent to which is the “present-valued” form of the constraint since all terms are in period 1 values.

32 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint u Now let’s add prices p 1 and p 2 for consumption in periods 1 and 2. u How does this affect the budget constraint?

33 Intertemporal Choice u Given her endowment (m 1,m 2 ) and prices p 1, p 2 what intertemporal consumption bundle (c 1 *,c 2 *) will be chosen by the consumer? u Maximum possible expenditure in period 2 is so maximum possible consumption in period 2 is

34 Intertemporal Choice u Similarly, maximum possible expenditure in period 1 is so maximum possible consumption in period 1 is

35 Intertemporal Choice u Finally, if c 1 units are consumed in period 1 then the consumer spends p 1 c 1 in period 1, leaving m 1 - p 1 c 1 saved for period 1. Available income in period 2 will then be so

36 Intertemporal Choice rearranged is This is the “future-valued” form of the budget constraint since all terms are expressed in period 2 values. Equivalent to it is the “present-valued” form where all terms are expressed in period 1 values.

37 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0

38 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0

39 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0

40 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 Slope =

41 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 Saving Borrowing Slope =

42 Price Inflation  Define the inflation rate by  where  For example,  = 0.2 means 20% inflation, and  = 1.0 means 100% inflation.

43 Price Inflation  We lose nothing by setting p 1 =1 so that p 2 = 1+ . u Then we can rewrite the budget constraint as

44 Price Inflation rearranges to so the slope of the intertemporal budget constraint is

45 Price Inflation u When there was no price inflation (p 1 =p 2 =1) the slope of the budget constraint was -(1+r).  Now, with price inflation, the slope of the budget constraint is -(1+r)/(1+  ). This can be written as  is known as the real interest rate.

46 Real Interest Rate gives For low inflation rates (  0),  r - . For higher inflation rates this approximation becomes poor.

47 Real Interest Rate

48 Comparative Statics u The slope of the budget constraint is  The constraint becomes flatter if the interest rate r falls or the inflation rate  rises (both decrease the real rate of interest).

49 Comparative Statics c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 slope =

50 Comparative Statics c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 slope =

51 Comparative Statics c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 slope = The consumer saves.

52 Comparative Statics c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 slope = The consumer saves. An increase in the inflation rate or a decrease in the interest rate “flattens” the budget constraint.

53 Comparative Statics c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 slope = If the consumer saves then saving and welfare are reduced by a lower interest rate or a higher inflation rate.

54 Comparative Statics c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 slope =

55 Comparative Statics c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 slope =

56 Comparative Statics c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 slope = The consumer borrows.

57 Comparative Statics c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 slope = The consumer borrows. A fall in the inflation rate or a rise in the interest rate “flattens” the budget constraint.

58 Comparative Statics c1c1 c2c2 m 2 /p 2 m 1 /p 1 0 0 slope = If the consumer borrows then borrowing and welfare are increased by a lower interest rate or a higher inflation rate.

59 Valuing Securities u A financial security is a financial instrument that promises to deliver an income stream. u E.g.; a security that pays $m 1 at the end of year 1, $m 2 at the end of year 2, and $m 3 at the end of year 3. u What is the most that should be paid now for this security?

60 Valuing Securities u The security is equivalent to the sum of three securities; –the first pays only $m 1 at the end of year 1, –the second pays only $m 2 at the end of year 2, and –the third pays only $m 3 at the end of year 3.

61 Valuing Securities u The PV of $m 1 paid 1 year from now is u The PV of $m 2 paid 2 years from now is u The PV of $m 3 paid 3 years from now is u The PV of the security is therefore

62 Valuing Bonds u A bond is a special type of security that pays a fixed amount $x for T years (its maturity date) and then pays its face value $F. u What is the most that should now be paid for such a bond?

63 Valuing Bonds

64 u Suppose you win a State lottery. The prize is $1,000,000 but it is paid over 10 years in equal installments of $100,000 each. What is the prize actually worth?

65 Valuing Bonds is the actual (present) value of the prize.

66 Valuing Consols u A consol is a bond which never terminates, paying $x per period forever. u What is a consol’s present-value?

67 Valuing Consols

68 Solving for PV gives

69 Valuing Consols E.g. if r = 0.1 now and forever then the most that should be paid now for a console that provides $1000 per year is


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