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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing- vechta.de 1 Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst -Scientific Director- (WING,

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Presentation on theme: "Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing- vechta.de 1 Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst -Scientific Director- (WING,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 1 Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst -Scientific Director- (WING, University of Vechta, Germany) Patterns and Dynamics of Global and European Egg Production and Trade Paper presented at the Turkish Egg Summit in Antalya November 1st, 2013

2 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 2 AGENDA 1. The globalization of egg production an egg trade 2. The banning of conventional cages in the EU (27) and impacts on egg production and egg trade 4. Challenges for the global and European egg industry 5. Results and perspectives

3 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 3 1. The dynamics of global egg production and egg trade

4 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING What is globalisation?

5 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Globalisation understood as the global organisation of production and trade describes: an ongoing process, the growing interdependence and linkage of countries, the increasing mobility of goods, services and capital, the reduction of transaction costs, the standardisation of products, the dissemination of technologies, and the growing importance of new communication technologies.

6 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING The globalisation of egg production

7 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING The development of global egg production between 1970 and 2010 FAO

8 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Development of global egg production between 1990 and 2010 WING

9 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Continent Increase (%) Africa Asia Europe N America* CS America Oceania 592 4,630 8,290 4,731 1, ,544 13,650 11,663 5,362 2, ,649 38,229 10,639 8,316 4, World19,54135,09465, The development of global egg production between 1970 and 2011 by continents FAO

10 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING FAO The changing contribution of the continents to global egg production between 1970 and 2011

11 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Continent Change (%) Africa Asia Europe N America* CS America Oceania / World The changing contribution of the continents to global egg production between 1970 and 2011 FAO

12 CountryProduction (1,000 t) Share (%) CountryProduction (1,000 t) Share (%) USA USSR Japan China Germany Un. Kingd. France Italy Spain Poland 4,053 2,248 1,766 1,533 1, China USA India Japan Mexico Russia Brazil Indonesia Ukraine France 24,149 5,419 3,490 2,483 2,459 2,284 2,037 1,166 1, countries13, countries 45, World19, World65, FAO The ten leading countries in global egg production in 1970 and 2011 Turkey: 810 = 1,2 %

13 The ten leading EU (27) member countries in egg Production in 2000 and 2012; data in 1,000 t CountryProductionShare (%)CountryProductionShare (%) France ,7Spain Germany90113,6France Italy68610,4Germany Netherlands66810,1Un. Kingd Spain6589,9Netherlands Un. Kingd.5698,6Austria countries ,36 countries4, EU (27) ,0EU (27)7, FAO, MEG 2013

14 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING CountryAbsolute increase (1,000 t) Share (%) of global increase CountryRelative Increase (%) China India USA Mexico Indonesia Brazil Iran Turkey Pakistan Nigeria Colombia South Africa Egypt Malaysia Myanmar 17,266 2,217 1,378 1, Paraguay Lao China Ghana Yemen Guatemala Viet Nam Turkmenistan Bangladesh Indonesia Guinea India Peru Kuwait Egypt countries26, countries- World28, World81.7 Countries with the highest increase in egg production between 1990 and 2010

15 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Countries with the highest decrease in egg production between 1990 and 2010 CountryAbsolute decrease (1,000 t) CountryRelative decrease (%) Germany Russia* Hungary Romania Iraq Bulgaria Belgium Czech Rep.** Greece Estonia* Cuba Finland Australia Kyrgistan* Slovakia** Estonia Iraq Hungary Kyrgistan** Bulgaria Germany Romania Czech Rep. Finland Belgium Greece Cuba Slovakia** Australia Denmark countries91015 countries- World951World- * 1992 ** 1993FAO

16 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Results: Global egg production increased by 44.2 mill. t between 1970 and 2011 and reached a production volume of 65.0 mill. t. Asia was the big winner whereas Europe and North America lost considerable shares in the analysed time period. In 2011, Asian countries contributed 58.8 % to the global production volume. European countries lost their leading position in 1988 to Asian countries. Despite a considerable increase in their production volume, North American countries could not maintain their share of The contribution of Africa and Central and South America to global egg production remained fairly stable between 1990 and 2010.

17 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING The globalisation of egg trade

18 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Development of global egg exports between 1970 and 2010 FAO

19 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Development of global egg imports between 1970 and 2010 FAO

20 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Exports Continent Change (%) Africa Asia Europe N America* CS America Oceania World** ** Imports Africa Asia Europe N America* CS America Oceania / World** The changing contribution of the continents to global egg trade FAO, own calculations

21 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Development of egg exports between 1990 and 2010 and exports by countries (2010) FAO

22 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Country1,000 tShare (%)Country1,000 tShare (%) Belgium Netherlands China Bulgaria Hungary Poland Denmark Romania Finland Lebanon Netherlands Poland Turkey Spain Germany China Malaysia USA Belgium Syria countries343* countries1, World World2, The ten leading egg exporting countries in 1970 and 2010 FAO

23 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Development of egg imports between 1990 and 2010 and imports by countries (2010) FAO

24 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING The ten leading egg importing countries in 1970 and 2010 FAO Country1,000 tShare (%)Country1,000 tShare (%) Germany Hong Kong USSR France Switzerland Austria USA Netherlands Un.Kingd. Italy Germany Iraq Netherlands Hong Kong Singapore Belgium France Italy Un. Kingd. Switzerland countries321* countries1, World World1,

25 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING Balance of trade with shell eggs by countries (2010) FAO, own calculations

26 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING The fifteen countries with the highest positive and negative balance of trade with shell eggs in 2010 CountrySurplus (t)CountryDeficit (t) Netherlands Poland Turkey Spain China Malaysia USA Syria Saudi Arabia India Belarus Iran Belgium Ukraine Brazil 434, , , , ,812 89,111 82,662 76,218 39,250 34,717 32,399 20,244 17,423 14,671 13,808 Germany Iraq Hong Kong Singapore Switzerland Un. Kingdom Canada Angola Qatar Austria Czech Rep. Un. Arab Em. Italy Afghanistan Libya 366, ,482 94,631 75,766 34,324 29,316 22,338 19,046 17,591 16,319 15,506 14,340 12,212 9,361 9,084 Own Calculations

27 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING 2. The banning of conventional cages for laying hens in the EU (27) and impacts on egg production and egg trade

28 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 28 On July 19th, 1999 the EU Commission passed: COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 1999/74/EC laying down minimum standards for the protection of laying hens. The directive decided that: - From January 1st, 2012 on all cages will be prohibited. - From January 1st, 2003 on no such cages must be installed in EU member countries. - Member countries may decide to ban cages earlier and to tighten regulations of the directive. BACKGROUND

29 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 29 Directive 1999/74/EC distinguishes between: a)Alternative Systems b)Unenriched cage systems c)Enriched cages The Commission also decided that before the final imple- mentation of the directive, additional scientific studies should be undertaken to analyze the impacts on the welfare of laying hens and the economy of production. BACKGROUND

30 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 30 EU: Conventional cages banned from January 1st, 2012 on. Not all member countries met the deadline. Estimated cost: about 1.2 billion €. In January 2013, about 30 mill. of the 350 mill. layers were still kept in conventional cages, 17 mill. in Italy alone. Problems: trade of eggs that are produced in old cages. Rest of Europe: No cages in Norway and Switzerland; conventional cages still used in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia; animal welfare discussion not yet important in the latter countries. BACKGROUND Laying hens in conventional cages (in June 2012, Mio. animals) France: 1.5 Spain: 12.7 Greece: 1.8 Belgium: 3.5 Portugal: 2.7 Poland: 2.3 Netherlands: 1.6 Cyprus: 0.1 Italy: 17.3 EU: 43.4 Mio. hens

31 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 31 BACKGROUND

32 The six leading EU (27) member countries in egg production in 2000 and 2012; data in 1,000 t CountryProductionShare (%)CountryProductionShare (%) France1, Spain Germany France Italy Germany Netherlands Un. Kingd Spain6589.9Netherlands Un. Kingd Austria countries4, countries4, EU (27)6, EU (27)7, FAO, MEG 2013

33 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 33 Impacts on egg supply and egg prices - Germany - - EU - 27

34 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 34 Germany In Germany, conventional cages were already banned from January 1st 2010 on, two years earlier than in the rest of the EU. The development of egg production in this country can demonstrate possible impacts of such a decision. EGG SUPPLY

35 Decrease 10,8 % Decrease 14,6 % Development of layer farms and the number of laying hens in Germany between 2000 and 2012 (Source: DESTATIS 2013)

36 Development of the German self-sufficiency rate for shell eggs and of egg imports between 2000 and 2013 Impacts of Animal Welfare regulations in Europe

37 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de EGG SUPPLY Potential number of laying hens in Germany

38 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 38 Development of the number of laying hens in Germany between January 2011 and December 2013 DateNumber of layers (1,000)Index (1/11 = 100) 1/11 7/11 12/11 1/12 7/12 12/12 1/13 7/13 12/13 37,372 37,774 37,721 38,818 38,873 39,457 39,774 40,019 37, EMA 9/2913

39 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de EGG SUPPLY Price development for shell eggs in Germany (wholesale price); data in €/100 eggs DateSize class M (enriched cages) Index (Jan./2011 = 100) January 2011 July 2011 December 2011 March 2012 July 2012 December 2012 March 2013 July EMA 8/2013

40 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 40 Impacts on egg supply and egg prices - Germany - EU - 27

41

42 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Potential number of laying hens in EU-27 EGG SUPPLY

43 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 43 Development of the number of laying hens in the EU between January 2011 and December Number of layers (in mill.)Index (1/11 = 100) 1/11 7/11 12/11 1/12 7/12 12/12 1/13 7/13 12/ EMA 9/2913

44 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de EGG SUPPLY

45 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de EGG SUPPLY Price development for shell eggs in the Netherlands (producer price); data in €/100 eggs DateSize class M (barn system) Index (Jan./2011 = 100) January 2011 July 2011 December 2011 March 2012 July 2012 December 2012 March 2013 June EMA 8/2013

46 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de EGG SUPPLY Price development for shell eggs in Spain (Bellpuig); data in €/100 eggs DateSize class M (average) Index (Jan./2011 = 100) January 2011 July 2011 December 2011 March 2012 July 2012 December 2012 March 2013 July EMA 8/2013

47 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de EGG SUPPLY Price development for shell eggs in Italy (Milano); data in €/100 eggs DateSize class M (average) Index (Jan./2011 = 100) January 2011 July 2011 December 2011 March 2012 July 2012 December 2012 March 2013 July EMA 8/2013

48 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 48 Impacts on egg trade

49 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 49 EU (27) member countries with the highest per capita consumption and self sufficiency rate for shell eggs (2012) Per capita consumption (kg/person/year) Self sufficiency rate (%) Spain18.0Netherlands307 Czech Rep.15.6Belgium115 Denmark15.3Poland120 France14.9Finland110 Latvia14.5Latvia110 Austria14.1Portugal106 Hungary14.0Spain105 MEG 2013

50 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 50 EU (27) member countries with the lowest per capita onsumption and self sufficiency rate for shell eggs (2012) Per capita consumption (kg/person/year) Self sufficiency rate (%) Greece8.6Germany68 Portugal9.0Un. Kingd.82 Finland10.3Ireland83 Belgium10.6Austria84 Ireland10.7Czech Republ.85 Sweden11.0France*87 Poland11.3Denmark92 MEG 2013 * 2011

51 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de TRADE

52 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de EU Egg Imports TRADE

53 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 53 Exports of Eggs by EU-27 TRADE

54 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Imports of Eggs into EU-27 TRADE

55 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 55 Egg Surplus and Deficit in Europe SECURITY

56 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Results : The German case Layer flocks in Germany decreased by over 15.6 % between 2005 and Egg production decreased by over 800 mill. pieces between June 2009 and June The self sufficiency rate fell from 74 % to only 59 %. Shell egg imports increased from 5.6 billion eggs in 2008 to over 7 billion eggs in In 2010, the import volume reached 8 billion. About 200 mill. € were invested by the industry to meet the German legal regulations. Germany will remain the leading egg importing country also in future. Main suppliers will be the Netherlands, Spain and Poland.

57 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Results of the transformation process in the EU : According to the EU commission, the transformation process was completed in all EU member countries in Layer flocks in EU-27 decreased as a result of the cage ban. Imports into the EU-27 increased temporarily because of the cage ban, exports decreased. Egg prices increased temporarily because of the egg shortage due to the transformation process. In 2013, egg prices decreased considerably because of a high oversupply. This will result in a sharp decrease of the number of laying hens in the fourth quarter of 2013.

58 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Challenges for the global and European egg industry

59 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 59 Challenges: Climate change. Less cultivated land and water resources. Declining phosphate resources. Growing rejection of intensive animal husbandry in developed countries. Animal welfare aspects. FUTURE

60 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Main arguments against a modern, market-oriented egg industry: number of birds per flock is too large, bird density per m 2 is too high, use of antibiotics is too high and dangerous, regional concentration of large poultry flocks cause environmental problems (air, soil, groundwater), vertical integration is threatening the future of poultry farms, animal welfare (de-beaking of small chicks, selection of male chicks in egg production). FUTURE

61 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de USA: conventional cages will be banned from 2030 on (in California from 2015), if the “Egg Bill” is passed, the transformation will cost about 4 billion US-$, after 2030 the dominating housing system will be colony nests/enriched cages (95 %), New Zealand: Conventional cages will by prohibited from 2022 on, enriched cages will be permitted. BACKGROUND

62 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Other countries: In Canada, conventional cages must not be installed from 2014 on. The discussion to ban cages is under way in Australia, Taiwan, South Korea and just beginning in Japan, India and Costa Rica. In China, Malaysia, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, all African countries as well as in non-EU countries in Europe conventional cages are still being used and a banning is not yet being discussed. BACKGROUND

63 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Further Problems: the failure of the poultry industry to explain to the public why certain forms of housing systems developed, why large herd sizes are necessary and when and why antibiotics have to be used, the failure of the poultry industry to switch from reaction to pro-active action in time. FUTURE

64 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de The challenge: to inform the public about the modern systems of egg and poultry meat production, to open the poultry houses to the public and to inform them about housing systems, herd sizes, the cost and profit situation, diseases and their cure, vaccination schemes, animal welfare and environmental problems and steps undertaken to reduce them, to continuously inform media, NGOs and animal welfare organisations about innovations in poultry production which help to reduce animal welfare and environmental problems, to inform the public about the safety and quality of affordable poultry products. FUTURE

65 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 4. Results and Perspectives

66 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 66 What did we learn in the EU? 1.We learned that very often a challenge is a chance and that serious problems lead to innovations. 2. We learned that animal welfare will be an ongoing challenge. 3. We learned that the improvement of housing systems will be an ongoing task. RESULTS

67 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de In less developed and threshold countries, the supply of a growing population with animal proteins is the most important goal for the future. In developed countries topics like animal welfare, environmental protection and climate protection are becoming more and more important. In developed countries the social acceptance of large farms is decreasing constantly. RESULTS Further Results:

68 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 68 Trends In bill. people will live on earth, 86 % in threshold and less developed countries. Until 2050 food production has to decrease by 50 % but in 2050 there will be less cultivated land and water supply will be unsure. In treshold and less developed countries meat consumption will increase fast because of an increasing purchase power. Poultry meat and eggs will be the most important protein sources. FUTURE

69 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Egg Production in 2015 (in t) ContinentProductionShare (%) Africa3, Asia42, N America*9, SC America5, Europe10, Oceania World * Canada, Mexico, USA FUTURE

70 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Projection of Egg Production and Consumption in the EU until 2014; data in 1,000 t (Source: EU Commision 10/2013) Produc- tion 7,3037,2717, Consump- tion 7,1057,1277,0577,061 Kg/head/ year Self-suffi- ciency (%)

71 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Thank you very much for your attention! Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production (WING), University of Vechta

72 Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de Questions


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