Presentation on theme: "Integrated Earth System Analysis Workshop Report Held November 2010, Baltimore MD Details at 2PM – POS Panel."— Presentation transcript:
Integrated Earth System Analysis Workshop Report Held November 2010, Baltimore MD http://www.usclivar.org/Reanalysis2010.php Details at 2PM – POS Panel
IESA Workshop Overview Evaluation of Reanalyses – Developing an Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) Capability November 1-3, 2010, Baltimore (90 Participants) Assess strengths and limitations of the new recent U.S. reanalyses and suggest where improvements of reanalysis products can be made; identify additional studies necessary to further elucidate the fidelity and usefulness of recent U.S. reanalyses; (DAY 1) Develop definitions and identify goals of U.S. efforts leading to the forthcoming generation of integrated Earth system analyses (IESA); (DAY 2) Develop diagnostics to quantitatively assess needed improvements in IESA products; (DAY 2) Demonstrate applications of reanalyses in climate and weather that would further highlight needed improvements in reanalysis products (DAY 3)
Day 1: Status Atmospheric Reanalyses – Trenberth – Noted “Proliferation” and questions how to help users understand strengths and weaknesses Ocean Reanalyses – Rienecker – Issues: Salinity (Pre-Argo), Error Statistics, Freshwater fluxes and Improvements to observed databases Overviews of atm CFSR, 20CR, JRA-55, MERRA, ASR and also Ocean Reanalyses and Observations General Points – Changing observation system still influences the output data – Models bias still apparent (lack of closed budgets) – Significant variance in physics fields exists (less so for state variables) – Prescribed SST has net imbalances of fluxes at the surface (coupling will allow states to adjust) – Obs data corrections/recovery ongoing (e.g. JRA, ERA, NCDC) – Making assimilated observations available in friendly formats
Day 2: IESA Overview Definition of IESA: Randy Dole – Need inter-agency coordination Presentations on: – Coupled Data Assimilation – Disciplinary Assimilation (Land, Ocean, Constituent) – Climate Analysis – Observation requirements GCOS documents on ECVs provide guidelines Need more coordination on observations standards and organization There will be continuing reprocessing
Day 2: IESA Panel Discussions IESA period; Observations – EOS and ARGO provide some of the best sources of IESA data, and so make that period a resource for development and testing – Likewise, the lack of comparable data sources prior to this then requires caution; be realistic about expectations – Alternatively, reduced data reanalyses are also providing useful data (e.g. 20CR) so that limited obs IESA could also be feasible Models and Observations are improving, but still limited; Regardless, to forge ahead will make progress Additional user needs from IESA, beyond what current reanalyses provide?
Day 3: Variability and Extremes – Joint with ACRE Tropical cyclone representations vary among systems: Relocating/bogusing has impact MJO: dynamical quantities are consistent among reanalyses, not so for physics – need more physics parameterization output Ocean Reanalyses: Ensemble has lower error; reduced spread with Argo – Uncertainty of Analyses (disciplinary or integrated) 20CR data being used to extend/augment observations back in time (e.g. Greenland Ice sheet; precipitation)
Overall New reanalyses generally producing improved results over previous – Observing system variations continue to limit climate quality of all reanalyses – Models and observations continue to improve; need to narrow the difference among reanalyses Multiple reanalyses are more beneficial than burdensome – Improved understanding of the uncertainty (especially important for coupled analyses), quantified impact of certain features
Looking forward Utilize the multitude of reanalyses: Characterizing the variance among reanalyses (uncertainty?) – Develop the benchmark from which to evaluate new Integrated reanalyses (physics/data assimilation) – Better understand the physics in the reanalysis systems – Present day decadal and climate predictions – CFSR has coupled components; GMAO coupled analysis for NCA under development Data Limitations and IESA – Pre-Argo Pre-EOS New reanalyses will continue to be developed, some will be coupled Earth systems – Communication between the user community and those knowledgeable about the systems is essential (e.g. more detailed output diagnostic requirements)
4 th WCRP International Conference on Reanalyses Silver Spring MD, May 7-11 2012 http://reanalyses.org/meetings/4th-wcrp- international-conference-reanalyses http://reanalyses.org/meetings/4th-wcrp- international-conference-reanalyses Major Topics – IESA and components of the Earth System – Impact of the changing observing system – Validation and Metrics – Observations and Data Assimilation – Applications and International collaborative efforts Presently developing a list of invited speakers
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