1. PEER 2002 PEER Annual Meeting Thinking Ahead: Issues for Adoption of PBEE uPeter J. May uCenter for American Politics and Public Policy uUniversity of Washington

2. An Important Reminder Adoption of PBEE methodologies and tools Is not automatic!!!!!!

3. Eventual Success Depends Upon Willingness of building owners and other decision-makers to address performance Adoption of PBEE methodologies by engineering firms Ability and willingness of design professionals to employ PBEE tools and approaches A supportive regulatory system

4. Factors Affecting Adoption of Innovations Characteristics of the innovation: –Comparative advantage and ease of use weighed against –Cost, complexity, and technological uncertainty Characteristics of early adopters: –Risk takers and willingness to experiment

5. Patterns in Diffusion of Innovation (hypothetical example)

6. Experience with Engineering Innovations Seismic Isolation Basic concept dates to early 1900s –1906 patent application; 1921 Tokyo Imperial Hotel Modern groundwork began late 1970s –Advances in rubber bearings Initial modern day applications late 1970s to mid 1980s –1979 rail bridge, 1982 bldg NZ; 1985 Foothills L&J Center Initial US standards / guidelines late 1980s early 1990s –1989 SEAOC, 1989 CA Hospital Guidelines, 1991 UBC, 1991 ASHTO Diffusion – worldwide use, but limited percentage of engineered facilities make use of the innovations Bottom line: 20 years to pass beyond initial threshold

7. Experience with Engineering Innovations Load and Resistance Factor Design Basic concept dates to early 1900s –1914 Budapest design code Modern groundwork began 1950s into 1960s –1947 theoretical basis; 1960s development of limit states Initial modern day applications 1970s –Advances in reliability analysis and load modeling Initial US standards / guidelines late 1980s early 1990s –1989 SEAOC, 1989 CA Hospital Guidelines, 1991 UBC, 1991 ASHTO Diffusion – widespread adoption in standards and engineering education Bottom line: 20 years to pass beyond initial threshold

8. Experience with Engineering Innovations Performance Based Earthquake Engineering Basic concept dates to early 1970s –HUD “Operation Breakthrough” performance-based approach Modern groundwork 1980s into 1990s –Evolution of LRFD Initial modern day applications mid to late 1990s –Energy facilities under DOE guidelines mid 1990s –SAC repair program for moment resisting steel frame joints Initial US standards / guidelines late 1990s –1992 DoE, 1995 SEAOC, 1995 FEMA/SAC, 1997 FEMA Diffusion – currently early stages of methodology and applications Bottom line: 2010 to 2020 before reach initial threshold??

9. Experience with Engineering Innovations Barriers and Facilitators for Diffusion Key Barriers –High perceived (or real) costs of the required analyses or technologies –Lack of agreed upon standards or guidelines –Lack of necessary computational power and analysis routines –Lack of data concerning performance of structures –Reluctance of some of the engineering community to incorporate the advances into practice Key Facilitators –Actions to overcome the above barriers –Documented uses of methodologies and their benefits –Willingness of early adopters to share experiences

10. Conclusion There is Hope but It will take time and effort