1. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 E-books – the new serial? 20/20 Vision? E-books in practice, and theory Andrew Wheatcroft The Centre for Publishing Studies University of Stirling

2. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 20/20 Visions Lynne Brindley and The British Library Electronic Publishing Services Ltd (EPS) Publishing Output in 2020. January 2004 Long term projections … the Library’s annual intake to 2020 Growth in ….printed collections in the light of trends in electronic publishing Extent of changeover from print to e- publishing

3. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Transformation ? By 2020 the percentage of UK book output available in electronic form will rise to over 80% By 2020, 39 per cent of output will be only available in electronic form EPS Publishing Output to 2020 The British Library 29 January 2004. Migration from print to electronic: UK monographs consolidated overview -II

4. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Library Horizons British Library time Time that’s undefined and unlimited –250 year acid free paper –Permanent preservation Aim: The World’s Knowledge - Preservation and access

5. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Publishing Horizons Publishing time Time that’s defined and limited –Maximum span: life of copyright & associated publisher’s rights –Minimum span: its asset value – is it worth anything ? Aim: Money

6. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Proliferation and Fragmentation 1.Proliferation: More titles … more content will be generated in smaller ‘packages’ for smaller audiences, especially as electronic delivery channels extend their reach globally. 2.Fragmentation’ will also occur – considerable uncertainty exists about what will constitute a publication in the latter part of the period covered – say from 2014. EPS Publishing Output to 2020 The British Library 29 January 2004. Issues relating to the characteristics of publishing in the medium-term future

7. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Digital Assets 1.Discrete units of content corresponding more closely to chapters or articles than to monographs or serials will be available, requiring a more granular system of item numbering such as the DOI (digital object identifier) EPS Publishing Output to 2020 The British Library 29 January 2004. Issues relating to the characteristics of publishing in the medium-term future

8. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Change and Innovation Leading edge technology Innovators, Early adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, Laggards. (Rogers 1995) Momentum and critical mass in publishing markets “ There was change and development, too, but not too much ” Robert Musil. A Man Without Qualities. (Der Mann ohne Eigenschaften)

9. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Innovation Timeline 

10. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Publishing Dynamics How do publishers invest now? –Mergers and acquisitions –Organic growth No research and innovate model –e.g. Pharmaceuticals –e.g. Technologies, automobiles, & the Internet –e.g. Consumer goods – Dyson vacuum

11. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Publishing Now Normal new business cycle – say, roughly about five years from concept to reward Longest business cycle: the whole life of copyright, say 70 years from death of creator Clarity and proximity –2010 – a 5 year vision – 20/20 –2015 – a 10 year vision – slightly myopic –2020 - 15 year vision – acutely myopic

12. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Publishing perspectives Making accessible to the public http://www.nih.gov/news/pr/feb2005/od-03.htm Responding to markets –Creating markets Different markets have always generated different modes of publishing

13. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Bill Gates on the Textbook ‘ Within four or five years, instead of spending money on textbooks, they’ll [students] spend a mere $ 400 or so on buying that tablet device and the material they’ll hook up to will all be on the wireless internet with animations, timelines and links to deep information. But they’ll be spending less than they would have on text books and have a dramatically better experience’ IAB Engage Conference, London 27 October 2005 –The Microsoft X-box 360 approach ?. –X-box 360 Console hardware will cost £ 250 + –X-box 360 software [Game] will cost £ 35 + Activision Call of Duty 2 Xbox 360 There is IPR asset value in both hardware and software

14. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Being Digital Nicholas Negroponte. Being Digital. Knopf NY.1995. http://archives.obs-us.com/obs/english/books/nn/bdcont.htm http://archives.obs-us.com/obs/english/books/nn/bdcont.htm The + and – of the Digital World Useful Knowledge: Re-combining, Re-purposing ‘Repurposing the Material Girl’. WIRED. Issue 1.05 | Nov 1993. http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.05/negroponte.htmlhttp://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.05/negroponte.html ‘This not only means reuse of data, music, and film libraries but also the expanded use of text, audio, and video for as many purposes as possible, in multiple packages and through diverse channels.’

15. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Morphing Publishing Electronic publishing will transform many publishing markets Publishing must metamorphose to accommodate those market changes Morphing - an animation technique for gradually turning one object into another

16. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Movie Producers When I'm asked what producers do, I say, "What don't they do?" I develop scripts; I raise money; I put together budgets; I negotiate with stars … I match directors with cinematographers...I make sure that a shoot is on schedule, on budget, on track. Christine Vachon. Shooting to Kill. HarperCollins NY. 1998

17. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Publisher as Producer The ‘producer’ ‘when it comes to actually getting the film onto screens and convincing audiences to go to the cinema to see it, that's the producer's job.’ –The producer is the first person on the project Hires the talent and always ‘in the loop’ Heads the financial and organizational aspect of the production, supervises the budgeting process, approves major expenses – Role continues into marketing and distribution On Schedule, on Budget, on Track.

18. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Example: Publisher - Producer Role Morphing the Publisher ►◄ Producer Into a Pubducer ? Tasks: 1.On Schedule, on Budget, on Track 2.Projects not product proliferation  A Pubducer’s tasks and priorities  More from less: lifetime yield from IPR  Long term project planning  Develop project new revenue streams  Not so many product lines  More value derived from each use of IPR

19. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005 Changing the face of publishing Supply –No stock, so no returns –Channels and discounts Demand –Digitisation – the Google-type initiative –The Long Tail – the unknown market –Produce-on-demand –Re-combining digital objects –Digital asset management

20. Copyright Andrew Wheatcroft 2005