2 ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019 The electricity demand growth estimated average 9.3% per year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)The electricity sales from year 2010 onwards is forecasted by assuming an average economic growth of 6.2% and an average population growth of 1.17%.It is anticipated that the sales for those years would not be constrained, as all of the power plants of the fast track program would have been already in operation.Electrification ratio increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% by the end of 2019.DSM program to shave and shift peak load has not been taken into account.2
4 Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu INDONESIA ELECTRICITY RATIO 2009 sekita63%NAD72,7%Category :> 60 %%%Sumut75,5%Kaltim53,9%Kalselteng56,3%Riau + Kepri44,7%Sulutenggo51,2%Kalbar49,5%Sumbar67,6%Sulteng47,64%Babel48,4%Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu50,3%Sulselrabar55,8%Maluku53,5%Bali76,2%Lampung47,1%Jabar+Banten64,95%Jateng+Yogya70,2%Jatim61,6%NTB29,9%NTT21,7%Papua + Irjabar27,8%4
5 POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING Some ageing and inefficient oil-fired power plants are retired as soon as more effcient plants are available.Generation expansion planning is made on least-cost principle, by looking for generation configuration that have minimum system costs.However, development of renewables (especially geothermal and some hydro) is encouraged, by treating these as fixed plants prior to optimisation process.Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of <1 day/year is used as reliability criteria during planning process.The reserve margin is restricted within 35-50% range based on net dependable capacity. Rental power plants and excess power are not taken into account.5
6 POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING Gas supply is assumed to be available for Java Bali system, yet for outside Java – Bali system gas-fired power plants are considered only if there is a definite gas supply. LNG receiving terminal is also considered as one option of gas supply.Development of small scale coal-fired powerplants is used to substitute oil-fired powerplants for smaller systems, if there is no local primary energy resource available.Coal-fired power plants with unit size of 1,000 MW supercritical would be introduced into the Java-Bali system.PLN expects a bigger role from private sector in IPP development.6
7 GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN Additional Capacity 53,219MW up to 2019PLN Generation 32,636MW and IPP 20,583MW, Average 4800MW/year
8 Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Jawa) PLTU 1 Jateng-Rembang, 2x315MW, Cons. Zelan+Tronoh+Priamanaya, Contract Signed 21March2007PLTU 2 Banten-Labuan, 2x300MW, Cons. Chengda+Truba Jurong, Contract Signed 21March2007PLTU 1 Jabar-Indramayu, 3x330MW, Cons. Sinomach+CNEEC+PT Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 21March20074. PLTU 2 Jatim-Paiton, 1x660MW, Cons. Harbin PE+Mitra Selaras+Hutama Energi, Contract Signed 7August20075. PLTU 1 Banten-Suralaya, 1x625MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri, Contract Signed 12March20076. PLTU 1 Jatim-Pacitan 2x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7Augus20077. PLTU 2 Jabar-Pelabuhan Ratu, 3x350MW, Cons. Shanghai Electric+Maxima Infrastructure, Contract Signed 7August20078. PLTU 3 Banten-Teluk Naga, 3x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7August20079. PLTU 3 Jatim-Tg. Awar Awar, 2x350MW, Sinomach+CNEEC+Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 25April200810. PLTU 2 Jateng-Adipala Cilacap, 1x660MW, Contract 22December2008, COD 2012
10 Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa) 18. PLTU Gorontalo, 2x25MW, Meta Epsi19. PLTU 2 Sulut-Amurang, 2x25MW, Wijaya Karya20. PLTU Sultra-Kendari, 2x10MW, Cons. Shangdong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika21. PLTU Sulsel-Barru, 2x50MW, Cons. Hubei Hongyuan Engineering+Bagus Karya22. PLTU Maluku Utara-Tidore, 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika23. PLTU 3 Papua-Jayapura, 2x10MW, Cons. Modern Widya Technical+Boustead Maxitherm
11 Fast Track Program Phase 2 More geothermal projects will be developed, and large coal fired power plant in Java to be excluded from Fast Track Program Phase 2. In addition to that, Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Project will be included in the program.The composition of project will consist of: geothermal 48%, hydro 12%, gas combined cycle 14% and coal fired outside Java-Bali 26%.The capacity of the projects will be as follows:Java-Bali: geothermal 2,137 MW, hydro 1,000 MW and gas combined cycle 1,200 MW.Outside Java-Bali: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 174 MW, geothermal 2,596 MW, and gas combined cycle 240 MW.Total Indonesia: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 1,174 MW, geothermal 4,733 MW and gas combined cycle 1,440 MW, totalling 9,963 MW.
12 Fast Track Program Phase 2 The second phase of fast track program will consist of 3,649 MW of PLN’s project and 6,314 MW of IPP project.The 1,200 MW gas combined cycle in Java-Bali is Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 project. This project is very strategic in that it will meet the future demand by the year , however the feasibility of the project will subject to gas supply availability.The 1,000 MW hydro project in Java-Bali is Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage. This project is very strategic as it will serve as peaking unit to replace the role of oil fired plants.Most geothermal projects will be IPP. To ensure the success of the projects within the time frame of the program (up to 2014), geothermal developers must take immediate project preparation and PLN must make immediate geothermal IPP procurement.
13 Summary of Fast Track Program Phase 2 REGIONSteam Coal PP (MW)Combined Cycle PP (MW)Geo PP (MW)Hydro PP(MW)Total (MW)JAVA-BALI-1.2002.1371.0004.337OUTSIDE JAVA-BALI2.6162402.5961745.626TOTAL(26%)1.440(14%)4.733 (48%)1.174 (12%)9.963(100%)
23 SUMMARY For the next 10 years The average electricity demand would grow at 9.3%/year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)Total additional generation capacity for Indonesia is 53,219 MW, consists of 32,636 MW of PLN projects and 20,583 MW of IPP projectsDevelopment of renewable energy, especially geothermal, is encouraged, by additional 5,006 MW by 2018Total additional transmission network would reach 44,257 kms for all voltage levels, and total additional of transformers would be 103,000 MVA for all voltage levels.Total additional distribution network is 175,013 kms for MV, 222,018 kms for LV, 30,877 MVA for distribution transformers and 25 million new customer connections.
24 SUMMARYTotal investment needed for Gen + Trans + Dis is US$ 64,69 billion (PLN only) or US$ 82,99 billion (PLN+IPP).Investment needed for PLN power plant projects alone is US$ 38,581 billion, and for IPP projects is US$ 18,31 billion.
25 Some strategic generation projects: SUMMARYSome strategic generation projects:CCGT Muara Tawar Add-on 2, 3, 4, 1,200 MW, commissioned inFast Track Generation Project 10,000 MW Phase 2 with total capacity of 11,355 MW year (this figure might change due to recent government’s will to promote more geothernal).Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage of 4x250 MW in 2014 (WB)CFPP Jawa Tengah Infrastruktur (IFC) 2x1,000 MW inCFPP mine mouth in Sumatera 6x600 MW in (transferred to Java Bali system)CCGT LNG Bojanegara 3x750 MW in25
26 Some strategic transmission projects: SUMMARYSome strategic transmission projects:HVDC transmission between Sumatera and Java in 2016.Sub-sea 150 kV Java-Bali circuit 3,4, 2010Batam – Bintan interconnected system using sub-sea 150 kV, 2010275 kV transmission connecting West Kalimantan – Serawak in 2011500 kV Java-Bali Crossing from Paiton to Kapal/near Denpasar in 201526