Presentation on theme: "11 INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CHALLENGES: TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2010-2019 PT PLN (PERSERO)"— Presentation transcript:
11 INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CHALLENGES: TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2010-2019 PT PLN (PERSERO)
22 ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019 1.The electricity demand growth estimated average 9.3% per year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%) 2.The electricity sales from year 2010 onwards is forecasted by assuming an average economic growth of 6.2% and an average population growth of 1.17%. It is anticipated that the sales for those years would not be constrained, as all of the power plants of the fast track program would have been already in operation. 3.Electrification ratio increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% by the end of 2019. 4.DSM program to shave and shift peak load has not been taken into account.
NAD 72,7% Sumut 75,5% Sumbar 67,6% Riau + Kepri 44,7% Babel 48,4% Lampung 47,1% Jabar+Banten 64,95% Jateng+Yog ya 70,2% Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu 50,3% Jatim 61,6% Bali 76,2% NTB 29,9% NTT 21,7% Kalbar 49,5% Kalselteng 56,3% Kaltim 53,9% Suluteng go 51,2% Sulten g 47,64 % Sulselrabar 55,8% Maluku 53,5% Papua + Irjabar 27,8% Category : > 60 % 41 - 60 % 20 - 40 % INDONESIA ELECTRICITY RATIO 2009 sekita63%
55 POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING 1.Some ageing and inefficient oil-fired power plants are retired as soon as more effcient plants are available. 2.Generation expansion planning is made on least-cost principle, by looking for generation configuration that have minimum system costs. 3.However, development of renewables (especially geothermal and some hydro) is encouraged, by treating these as fixed plants prior to optimisation process. 4.Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of <1 day/year is used as reliability criteria during planning process. The reserve margin is restricted within 35-50% range based on net dependable capacity. Rental power plants and excess power are not taken into account.
66 5.Gas supply is assumed to be available for Java Bali system, yet for outside Java – Bali system gas-fired power plants are considered only if there is a definite gas supply. LNG receiving terminal is also considered as one option of gas supply. 6.Development of small scale coal-fired powerplants is used to substitute oil-fired powerplants for smaller systems, if there is no local primary energy resource available. 7.Coal-fired power plants with unit size of 1,000 MW supercritical would be introduced into the Java-Bali system. 8.PLN expects a bigger role from private sector in IPP development. POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING
7 Additional Capacity 53,219MW up to 2019 PLN Generation 32,636MW and IPP 20,583MW, Average 4800MW/year GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN
8 Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Jawa) 1.PLTU 1 Jateng-Rembang, 2x315MW, Cons. Zelan+Tronoh+Priamanaya, Contract Signed 21March2007 2.PLTU 2 Banten-Labuan, 2x300MW, Cons. Chengda+Truba Jurong, Contract Signed 21March2007 3.PLTU 1 Jabar-Indramayu, 3x330MW, Cons. Sinomach+CNEEC+PT Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 21March2007 4.PLTU 2 Jatim-Paiton, 1x660MW, Cons. Harbin PE+Mitra Selaras+Hutama Energi, Contract Signed 7August2007 5.PLTU 1 Banten-Suralaya, 1x625MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri, Contract Signed 12March2007 6.PLTU 1 Jatim-Pacitan 2x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7Augus2007 7.PLTU 2 Jabar-Pelabuhan Ratu, 3x350MW, Cons. Shanghai Electric+Maxima Infrastructure, Contract Signed 7August2007 8.PLTU 3 Banten-Teluk Naga, 3x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7August2007 9.PLTU 3 Jatim-Tg. Awar Awar, 2x350MW, Sinomach+CNEEC+Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 25April2008 10.PLTU 2 Jateng-Adipala Cilacap, 1x660MW, Contract 22December2008, COD 2012
9 Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa) 1.PLTU 2 Sumut-Pangkalan Susu, 2x220MW, Cons. Guangdong+Nintec+Bagus Karya 2.PLTU Kepri-Tg. Balai Karimun, 2x7MW, Cons. Shangdong+Rekadaya Elektrika 3.PLTU NAD-Meulaboh, 2x110MW, Synohydro 4.PLTU 1 Riau-Bengkalis, 2x10MW, Cons. Guandong Machinery+Modaco+Kelsri+Angkasa Buana 5.PLTU 2 Riau-Selat Panjang, 2x7MW, Bouwstead Maxitherm 6.PLTU Sumbar-Teluk Sirih, 2x212MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri 7.PLTU Lampung-Tarahan Baru, 2x100MW, Jiangxi Electric Power Design Institute+Adhi Karya 8.PLTU 3 Babel-Bangka Baru, 2x30MW, Cons. Truba,+China Shanghai Group 9.PLTU 4 Babel-Belitung 2x16,5MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Poeser Indonesia 10.PLTU 1 Kalbar-Parit Baru, 2x50MW, Cons. Bumi Rama Nusantara+Altons 11.PLTU 2 Kalbar-Bengkayang, 2x27,5MW, Cons. Guangdong Machinery+Wijaya Karya 12.PLTU Kalsel-Asam Asam, 2x65MW, Cons. Chengda+Wijaya Karya 13.PLTU 1 Kalteng, Pulang Pisau, 2x60MW 14.PLTU 1 NTB-Bima, 2x10MW, Guandong+Modaco Enersys+Angkasa Buana Cipta 15.PLTU 2 NTB-Lombok,2x25MW, Barata Indonesia 16.PLTU 1 NTT-Ende 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika 17.PLTU 2 NTT-Kupang, 2x16,5MW, Shandong Mavhinery+Poeser Indonesia
10 Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa) 18. PLTU Gorontalo, 2x25MW, Meta Epsi 19. PLTU 2 Sulut-Amurang, 2x25MW, Wijaya Karya 20. PLTU Sultra-Kendari, 2x10MW, Cons. Shangdong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika 21. PLTU Sulsel-Barru, 2x50MW, Cons. Hubei Hongyuan Engineering+Bagus Karya 22. PLTU Maluku Utara-Tidore, 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika 23. PLTU 3 Papua-Jayapura, 2x10MW, Cons. Modern Widya Technical+Boustead Maxitherm
Fast Track Program Phase 2 More geothermal projects will be developed, and large coal fired power plant in Java to be excluded from Fast Track Program Phase 2. In addition to that, Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Project will be included in the program. The composition of project will consist of: geothermal 48%, hydro 12%, gas combined cycle 14% and coal fired outside Java-Bali 26%. The capacity of the projects will be as follows: Java-Bali: geothermal 2,137 MW, hydro 1,000 MW and gas combined cycle 1,200 MW. Outside Java-Bali: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 174 MW, geothermal 2,596 MW, and gas combined cycle 240 MW. Total Indonesia: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 1,174 MW, geothermal 4,733 MW and gas combined cycle 1,440 MW, totalling 9,963 MW.
The second phase of fast track program will consist of 3,649 MW of PLN’s project and 6,314 MW of IPP project. The 1,200 MW gas combined cycle in Java-Bali is Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 project. This project is very strategic in that it will meet the future demand by the year 2011-2012, however the feasibility of the project will subject to gas supply availability. The 1,000 MW hydro project in Java-Bali is Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage. This project is very strategic as it will serve as peaking unit to replace the role of oil fired plants. Most geothermal projects will be IPP. To ensure the success of the projects within the time frame of the program (up to 2014), geothermal developers must take immediate project preparation and PLN must make immediate geothermal IPP procurement. Fast Track Program Phase 2
Summary of Fast Track Program Phase 2 REGION Steam Coal PP (MW) Combined Cycle PP (MW) Geo PP (MW) Hydro PP (MW) Total (MW) JAVA-BALI-1.2002.1371.0004.337 OUTSIDE JAVA-BALI 2.6162402.5961745.626 TOTAL 2.616 (26%) 1.440 (14%) 4.733 (48%) 1.174 (12%) 9.963 (100%)
SUMATERA PLTA: 174 MW PLTP:2285 MW PLTU: 1100 MW PLTGU: 120 MW Map of Fast Track Program Phase 2 KALIMANTAN PLTU:840 MW PLTGU:120 MW SULAWESI PLTP:195 MW PLTU:418 MW MALUKU PLTP:40 MW PLTU:44 MW PAPUA PLTU:114 MW NTT PLTP:46 MW PLTU:30 MW NTB PLTP:30 MW PLTU:70 MW JAMALI PLTP: 2.137 MW PLTU: 0 MW PLTGU:1.200 MW PLTA : 1.000 MW TOTAL PLTA:1174 MW PLTP:4733 MW PLTU:2616 MW PLTGU:1440 MW TOTAL:9963 MW
17 Project NameCOD Financing Plan Transmisi 275 kV Sumatera (Payakumbuh – Padangsidempuan) 2012Loan JICA Transmisi 275 kV Rengat – Garuda Sakti (220 km) 2014unallocated Transmisi Sumatera-Jawa ± 500 kV HVDC2016USD 2,3 milyar, Loan JICA Jawa-Bali Crossing 500 kV HVAC2015USD 328 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB Interkoneksi Kalbar-Serawak 275 kV HVAC2012USD 101 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB Interkoneksi Sumatera-Malaysia ± 250 kV HVDC 2015USD 353 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB/JICA Perkuatan Transmisi Sistem Jakarta dan Bali2011 2012 USD 420 juta, KE Perkuatan Transmisi Kota-Kota Besar di Jawa 2012USD 250 juta, IBRD Transmisi 500 kV AC Tj Jati - Ungaran – Pemalang – Mandirancan – Indramayu (±500 km) 2015USD 300 juta, unallocated
DISTRIBUTION EXPANSION PLAN 18 ADDIONAL DISTRIBUTION FACILITY UP TO 2019: MV : 181,000KMS 16,500 KMS/YEAR LV: 249,500KMS 22,700 KMS/YEAR DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER : 35,000 MVA 3,200 MVA/YEAR ADDITIONAL COSTUMER: 27,4 MILION 2,5 MIO/YEAR
PLN INVESTMENT 19 INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 64,7 BILLION, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBI SHMENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT
PLN + IPP INVESTMENT 20 INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 83,0 BILLION OR USD 7,6 BILLION PER YEAR, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBIS MENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT
PLN PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM 21
IPP PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM 22
23 For the next 10 years The average electricity demand would grow at 9.3%/year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%) Total additional generation capacity for Indonesia is 53,219 MW, consists of 32,636 MW of PLN projects and 20,583 MW of IPP projects Development of renewable energy, especially geothermal, is encouraged, by additional 5,006 MW by 2018 Total additional transmission network would reach 44,257 kms for all voltage levels, and total additional of transformers would be 103,000 MVA for all voltage levels. Total additional distribution network is 175,013 kms for MV, 222,018 kms for LV, 30,877 MVA for distribution transformers and 25 million new customer connections. SUMMARY
24 Total investment needed for Gen + Trans + Dis is US$ 64,69 billion (PLN only) or US$ 82,99 billion (PLN+IPP). Investment needed for PLN power plant projects alone is US$ 38,581 billion, and for IPP projects is US$ 18,31 billion. SUMMARY
25 Some strategic generation projects: CCGT Muara Tawar Add-on 2, 3, 4, 1,200 MW, commissioned in 2011-2012. Fast Track Generation Project 10,000 MW Phase 2 with total capacity of 11,355 MW year 2011-2014 (this figure might change due to recent government’s will to promote more geothernal). Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage of 4x250 MW in 2014 (WB) CFPP Jawa Tengah Infrastruktur (IFC) 2x1,000 MW in 2014-2015. CFPP mine mouth in Sumatera 6x600 MW in 2016-2017 (transferred to Java Bali system) CCGT LNG Bojanegara 3x750 MW in 2015-2017. SUMMARY
26 Some strategic transmission projects: HVDC transmission between Sumatera and Java in 2016. Sub-sea 150 kV Java-Bali circuit 3,4, 2010 Batam – Bintan interconnected system using sub-sea 150 kV, 2010 275 kV transmission connecting West Kalimantan – Serawak in 2011 500 kV Java-Bali Crossing from Paiton to Kapal/near Denpasar in 2015 SUMMARY