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infield Australasian Deepwater – Opportunities & Global Context
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS Australasian Deepwater – Opportunities & Global Context Will Rowley - Director of Analytical Services Infield Systems Ltd.
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Free world map of deepwater regions & activity – limited quantity
Contents Introduction Definitions & Clarification Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors Regions – Comparisons & Drivers Australasia – Development Strategies Opportunities Free world map of deepwater regions & activity – limited quantity Perth 22 February 2005
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Infield Systems Ltd, aka ‘Infield’ or ISL
Established over 18 yrs, specialist boutique in offshore energy Highly respected internationally with clients in every continent Clients - operators, contractors, suppliers, Governments & NGOs Worldwide offshore coverage – unique data & info Service provider (direct & indirect) to over 87%* offshore industry Full suite of products and services – data, publications & services Highly developed modelling & forecasting system - OFFPEX™ Tailored reports, studies, surveys, models & forecasts, due diligence Support to Operations, Strategic & Investor Relations * To international operators & contractors that account for operations on over 87% of the annualised offshore capex worldwide Perth 22 February 2005
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Definitions & Clarifications Units, Values & terminology
Water-depth Shallow <500m Deepwater ≥500m Ultra-deepwater ≥1500m [subset of deepwater] Units, Values & terminology Units as noted Values US$m, Development Expenditure Prospects Identified developments Forecasts ISL view on reality of next five years (units & $) Trends Indications for 5yr+ Perth 22 February 2005
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Definitions & Clarifications - Regions
Europe North America Latin America Africa Middle East Asia Australasia Definitions & Clarifications - Regions Perth 22 February 2005
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Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors
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Nos. offshore fields in prospect p.a worldwide
Prospects not forecasts Actual Prospects 300 Shallow 250 Deep Most of these very low status, marginal & won’t be developed and form a ‘bow wave’ to the right Ultra-deep 200 Nos. 150 100 It is these prospects that are the cause of excitement – the field numbers may be small but ave. reserves/production rates are large 50 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Not forgetting the unknown potential of deepwater Perth 22 February 2005
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5 yr forward – high degree of confidence
No. fields due on-stream growing on the back of extensive (and expensive) E&A activity over past 5 yrs 60 Ultra-deep 5 yr forward – high degree of confidence 50 But the 5-10yr window is harder to predict Deep 40 Trend lines Nos. 30 20 10 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Perth 22 February 2005
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Subsea to shore – growth area, Egypt, Norway, Brazil
Deepwater development solutions under consideration - prospects 45 No Dev. Yet Notice lag of subsea to floating & high visibility of subsea prospects Floating Floating or Subsea (Alt.) 40 Fixed & Subsea 35 Fixed 30 ERD &/or Subsea Subsea Sat. to Floating Subsea Sat. to Fixed Subsea Sat. to Onshore 25 Nos 20 Subsea to shore – growth area, Egypt, Norway, Brazil 15 10 5 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Lack of visibility of development solutions in the longer term even with deepwater Perth 22 February 2005
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Some Key Notes & Assumptions to Forecasts
Expenditure Levels Some Key Notes & Assumptions to Forecasts Bottom-up, project-by-project assessment Forecasts 0-5yrs Trends & Indicators 5-10yrs Oil price scenario $18-22/bbl – default Global economy range, static to positive growth (0-3%) One major global incident every 3-5 years Project expenditure cross-checked to operators & field owners Full transparency of methodology, assumptions and forecasts Final forecasts to 2009 subject to minor change as verification of modelling is completed Perth 22 February 2005
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Scale of deepwater activity – key sectors
Platforms $13.7bn $20.6bn Scale of deepwater activity – key sectors 6000 Subsea $7.9bn $17.3bn 5000 Pipelines $9.1bn $14.8bn 4000 $m 3000 2000 1000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Actual Year of Spend $55bn deepwater development expenditure – all sectors Peaking at $13.7bn in 2006 – installed facilities & infrastructure costs
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? Platform Expenditure An exceptional peak?
Asia Africa 6000 Australasia Europe An exceptional peak? Latin America On-stream Model Middle East 5000 Trend North America 4000 Or the first in a series of development waves? – early indicators ? $m 3000 2000 1000 What could impact on this trend? 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 US GoM, West Africa, India, China, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia etc Actual Year of Spend High visibility & certainty Medium visibility & certainty Low visibility & certainty Perth 22 February 2005
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Development scenarios
Forecast This is dominated by large newbuild FPSOs – we believe a peak Actual Trend 6000 CPT 5000 Semi-Sub Ship-Shaped But still close to $3bn/yr spent on platforms in the longer term TLP Trend Spar 4000 $m 3000 2000 1000 Rationale - 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Actual Year of Spend Need to ascertain success of current crop of large facilities – return on investment Part of peak one-off infrastructure development – West Africa & hubs Cheaper development solutions especially in new deepwater arenas Increasing focus on subsea Perth 22 February 2005
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Average Platform Cost at Sanction (Actual & Intentions)
600 500 400 Statistical Linear Trend $m 300 200 Forecast Trend After Lessons Learnt 100 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Year Of Sanction Only a small number of major operators can afford the newbuild mega-projects that have been a feature of the past few years Few other companies can afford the risk these projects now bring – and in the short-term many of these have their hands full with existing developments
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In terms of the number of deepwater platforms installed
00-04 = 35 18 FPSO FPS 16 TLP Other Floaters Other Fixed 04-08 = 68 14 SPAR 12 59% = FPSO (Africa, Brazil, Asia & Australasia) 10 Nos. 8 6 Notice low visibility of Spars & TLPs – reflection of their short development schedules 4 2 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Installation Year Note also a lack of projects scheduled for installation in 2010/11, partly because of ‘rollover’ of projects to outside a 5 yr window Perth 22 February 2005
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Water Depth Trends Overall trend continues downward
Increasing diversity of solutions in type and size Sphere size reflects relative cost scale Perth 22 February 2005
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Dry Tree Solution – cost trends
Not all cost trends are upwards – mini TLPs & repeat designs pulling average costs down Perth 22 February 2005
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TLP – Cost trend by water depth
TLP – growing distinction between large & small facilities Kikeh Perth 22 February 2005
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Spar - Cost trend by water depth
Consistent trend down to 2,000m Possibilities here in Atwater Valley (US GoM) Perth 22 February 2005
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Cost trend by water depth – dry trees
Key zone of interaction between Spars & TLPs Often compete – alternative scenarios Perth 22 February 2005
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Vary considerably in scale & design – newbuilds & conversions
Deepwater FPSOs Vary considerably in scale & design – newbuilds & conversions Perth 22 February 2005
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FPSs – Semi-submersibles
Key hub developments in many regions – especially US & Brazil Perth 22 February 2005
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Regions – Trends & Sectors
Perth 22 February 2005
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Deepwater reserves due on-stream per annum
Mid-term trend North America 12,000 Middle East 10,000 Latin America Europe Large Africa fields coming on-stream clearly visible 8,000 Australasia MMBOE 6,000 Africa Asia 4,000 2,000 - 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Perth 22 February 2005
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Deepwater overall expenditure by region
6000 Asia Africa Europe Australasia 5000 North America Latin America Middle East 4000 Mid-term trend? $m 3000 2000 1000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Actual Year of Spend Note - growing importance of Africa Note – emergence of Asia & Australasia 04-08 $m % Perth 22 February 2005
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Every Region Experiencing Some Growth (5yr vs 5yr)
6000 Asia Africa Australasia Europe 5000 Middle East Latin America North America 4000 $m 3000 2000 1000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Actual Year of Spend Significant growth in Asia & Australasia All deepwater sectors
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Australasia – 2% market share 04-08
Small number of developments but an emerging market Enfield & Stybarrow FPSOs Led by local players at present Are there enough prospects to maintain momentum? Platform expenditure Perth 22 February 2005
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No. of new fields brought on-stream by operators - Global
The number of fields brought on-stream by top ten operators increases but it is the remaining operators who are growing in influence. The number of field owners is also increasing and there is a trend of owners eventually moving into operatorships as their experience grows. Perth 22 February 2005
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Global subsea development expenditure Australasia subsea - deepwater
Perth 22 February 2005
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Worldwide deepwater subsea production well trends
1000m 2000m 3000m Perth 22 February 2005
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Australasia – Development Strategies
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Australasia – combined deepwater expenditure
Effectively a new sector Deepwater ave = 83% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Golden triangle ave = 74% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Whilst second smallest region – next to fastest growing (Asia) Perth 22 February 2005
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Asia – combined deepwater expenditure
Asia 446% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) $3.6bn Deepwater ave = 83% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Golden triangle ave = 74% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Already the 4th Most Significant Deepwater Region Perth 22 February 2005
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Asia - Cost trend by water depth – all platforms
Year Installed 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Australasian experience can be used in Asia 200 400 600 800 Kamunsu WD (m) 1000 1200 Kikeh 1400 1600 1800 2000 The number & scale of prospects is growing all the time – the key question is timing Perth 22 February 2005
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Asia & Australasia deepwater subsea production well trends
Continued move into deeper waters expected Perth 22 February 2005
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Across Asia & Australasia we are seeing -
wide range of development scenarios innovation in design & approach steep learning curve strong NOC & independent lead increased need for cooperation on delaying issues but a growing list of prospects world-class opportunities Perth 22 February 2005
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Asian Deepwater Prospects
Country Operator Field DISC. ON STATUS WD DEVELOPMENT TYPE Philippines Shell Malampaya (SC-38) 1992 2001 Producing 820 Fixed Production Platform and Subsea Malampaya Oil Rim EWT (SC-38) 2000 Suspended 845 Floating Production Indonesia Unocal West Seno 1998 2003 953 India Reliance D6 Field (KG-DWN-98/3) (Dhirubhai) 2002 2006 Firm Plan 900 Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative) Malampaya Oil Rim (SC-38) Possible Gehem Probable 1823 Subsea Satellite to Onshore Facility Malaysia Murphy Kikeh (Sabah Block SB-K) 2007 1340 ONGC M Field (KG-DWN-98/2) (Padmavati) 500 Subsea Satellite to Floating Production Merah Besar 1997 520 Sadewa 2008 550 Aton 1999 1150 Japan Japex Sanriku Oki 857 No Development Scheme Announced Yet Kamunsu East North 1000 Krishna-Godavari KD-1-1 844 Annapurna (KG-DWN-98/2 R-Cluster) 1030 Gumusut (Sabah SB-J) 2004 Hijau Besar 2009 686 Brunei Merpati/Meragi 1993 Kamunsu East 737 Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production Janaka North 1316 D6-D1 Field (KG-DWN-98/3)(Dhirubhai Southeast 1280 Kikeh Kecil (Sabah Block SB-K) 1359 Krishna-Godavari G-4 Camago (SC-38) 1989 736 Ranggas 1616 Gendalo 2010 1425 N Field (KG-DWN-98/2) Amerada Hess Halimun (Tanjung Ara) 1061 Papandayan (Tanjung Ara) 555 D6-F1 Field (KG-DWN-98/3) (Dhirubhai East) 1756 Kakap (Sabah Block SB-K) 926 Inpex Jambu Aye Utara 1984 2011 Licence Surrendered 1200 Bangka 980 San Martin (SC-38) 1982 2012 850 Putih Besar 535 Gula 1844 Gandang 2014 1684 Gada 2015 1897 Maha 2016 742 Perth 22 February 2005
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Australia – Opportunities
Perth 22 February 2005
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To be at the forefront of regional deepwater developments
Regional leadership To be at the forefront of regional deepwater developments Potential to develop a long-term deepwater programme Development of low-cost and flexible solutions Cross regional opportunities Perth 22 February 2005
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Australasian Deepwater Prospects
Over $900m of deepwater capex forecast over the next five years Conservative forecast – much greater potential OPERATOR NAME FIELD NAME YEAR DISC. YEAR ON STREAM STATUS OIL RES GAS RES COND RES WD PROD RATE OIL (BPD) PROD RATE GAS(MMCFD) DEVELOPMENT TYPE Esso Australia Resources Ltd Scarborough 1979 2010 Possible 6000 912 600 Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative) ChevronTexaco Australia Pty Ltd Chrysaor (Gorgon Area) 1995 2012 2900 75 818 360 Subsea Satellite to Onshore Facility BHP Billiton Petroleum Pty Ltd Novara (WA-155-P(1) 45 1015 30000 Subsea Satellite to Floating Production Woodside Energy Ltd Enfield (WA-271-P) 1999 2006 Under Devt 111 11 520 65000 Floating Production Laverda (WA-271-P) 2000 2008 Firm Plan 65 20 850 35000 Stybarrow (WA-255-P(2) 2003 2007 50 10 825 20000 Skiddaw (WA-255-P(2) 2009 30 780 10000 Eskdale (WA-255-P(2) 2004 2011 15 822 No Development Scheme Announced Yet Perth 22 February 2005
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infield Australasian Deepwater Will Rowley
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS Australasian Deepwater Will Rowley Director of Analytical Services Deepwater maps available – limited number Presentation is available on request – large file
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Perth 22 February 2005
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