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THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Australasian Deepwater – Opportunities & Global Context Infield Systems Ltd. Will Rowley - Director of Analytical.

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Presentation on theme: "THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Australasian Deepwater – Opportunities & Global Context Infield Systems Ltd. Will Rowley - Director of Analytical."— Presentation transcript:

1 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Australasian Deepwater – Opportunities & Global Context Infield Systems Ltd. Will Rowley - Director of Analytical Services

2 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 2 Contents Introduction Definitions & Clarification Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors Regions – Comparisons & Drivers Australasia – Development Strategies Opportunities Free world map of deepwater regions & activity – limited quantity

3 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 3 Established over 18 yrs, specialist boutique in offshore energy Highly respected internationally with clients in every continent Clients - operators, contractors, suppliers, Governments & NGOs Worldwide offshore coverage – unique data & info Service provider (direct & indirect) to over 87%* offshore industry Full suite of products and services – data, publications & services Highly developed modelling & forecasting system - OFFPEX Tailored reports, studies, surveys, models & forecasts, due diligence Support to Operations, Strategic & Investor Relations Infield Systems Ltd, aka Infield or ISL * To international operators & contractors that account for operations on over 87% of the annualised offshore capex worldwide

4 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 4 Shallow<500m Deepwater500m Ultra-deepwater 1500m [subset of deepwater] Definitions & Clarifications Water-depth Units, Values & terminology Unitsas noted ValuesUS$m, Development Expenditure ProspectsIdentified developments ForecastsISL view on reality of next five years (units & $) TrendsIndications for 5yr+

5 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 5 Europe North America Latin America Africa Middle East Asia Australasia Definitions & Clarifications - Regions

6 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 6 Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors

7 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 7 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1994199720002003200620092012 Nos. Shallow Deep Ultra-deep ActualProspects Prospects not forecasts Most of these very low status, marginal & wont be developed and form a bow wave to the right Nos. offshore fields in prospect p.a worldwide It is these prospects that are the cause of excitement – the field numbers may be small but ave. reserves/production rates are large Not forgetting the unknown potential of deepwater

8 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 19992001200320052007200920112013 Nos. Ultra-deep Deep No. fields due on-stream growing on the back of extensive (and expensive) E&A activity over past 5 yrs Trend lines 5 yr forward – high degree of confidence But the 5-10yr window is harder to predict

9 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 9 Deepwater development solutions under consideration - prospects 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1994199720002003200620092012 Nos No Dev. Yet Floating Floating or Subsea (Alt.) Fixed & Subsea Fixed ERD &/or Subsea Subsea Sat. to Floating Subsea Sat. to Fixed Subsea Sat. to Onshore Notice lag of subsea to floating & high visibility of subsea prospects Subsea to shore – growth area, Egypt, Norway, Brazil Lack of visibility of development solutions in the longer term even with deepwater

10 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 10 Some Key Notes & Assumptions to Forecasts Bottom-up, project-by-project assessment Forecasts 0-5yrs Trends & Indicators 5-10yrs Oil price scenario $18-22/bbl – default Global economy range, static to positive growth (0-3%) One major global incident every 3-5 years Project expenditure cross-checked to operators & field owners Full transparency of methodology, assumptions and forecasts Final forecasts to 2009 subject to minor change as verification of modelling is completed Expenditure Levels

11 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1999200020012002200320042005200620072008 Actual Year of Spend $m Platforms 00-04 $13.7bn 05-09 $20.6bn Platforms Subsea 00-04 $7.9bn 05-09 $17.3bn Subsea Pipelines 00-04 $9.1bn 05-09 $14.8bn Pipelines Scale of deepwater activity – key sectors $55bn deepwater development expenditure 05-09 – all sectors Peaking at $13.7bn in 2006 – installed facilities & infrastructure costs

12 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 12 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 19841987199019931996199920022005200820112014 Actual Year of Spend $m AfricaAsia AustralasiaEurope Middle EastLatin America North AmericaTrend On-stream Model Platform Expenditure An exceptional peak? Or the first in a series of development waves? – early indicators ? US GoM, West Africa, India, China, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia etc What could impact on this trend? High visibility & certainty Medium visibility & certainty Low visibility & certainty

13 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 13 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 19841987199019931996199920022005200820112014 Actual Year of Spend $m CPT Semi-SubShip-Shaped Spar TLP Trend Forecast TrendActual This is dominated by large newbuild FPSOs – we believe a peak But still close to $3bn/yr spent on platforms in the longer term Rationale - Need to ascertain success of current crop of large facilities – return on investment Part of peak one-off infrastructure development – West Africa & hubs Cheaper development solutions especially in new deepwater arenas Increasing focus on subsea Development scenarios

14 Average Platform Cost at Sanction (Actual & Intentions) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 198519881991199419972000200320062009 Year Of Sanction $m Statistical Linear Trend Forecast Trend After Lessons Learnt Only a small number of major operators can afford the newbuild mega-projects that have been a feature of the past few years Few other companies can afford the risk these projects now bring – and in the short-term many of these have their hands full with existing developments

15 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 15 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 198919921995199820012004200720102013 Installation Year Nos. FPSFPSO Other FixedOther Floaters SPAR TLP In terms of the number of deepwater platforms installed 00-04 = 35 04-08 = 68 59% = FPSO (Africa, Brazil, Asia & Australasia) Notice low visibility of Spars & TLPs – reflection of their short development schedules Note also a lack of projects scheduled for installation in 2010/11, partly because of rollover of projects to outside a 5 yr window

16 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 16 Water Depth Trends Overall trend continues downward Increasing diversity of solutions in type and size Sphere size reflects relative cost scale

17 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 17 Dry Tree Solution – cost trends Not all cost trends are upwards – mini TLPs & repeat designs pulling average costs down

18 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 18 TLP – Cost trend by water depth Kikeh TLP – growing distinction between large & small facilities

19 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 19 Spar - Cost trend by water depth Consistent trend down to 2,000m Possibilities here in Atwater Valley (US GoM)

20 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 20 Cost trend by water depth – dry trees Key zone of interaction between Spars & TLPs Often compete – alternative scenarios

21 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 21 Deepwater FPSOs Vary considerably in scale & design – newbuilds & conversions

22 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 22 FPSs – Semi-submersibles Key hub developments in many regions – especially US & Brazil

23 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 23 Regions – Trends & Sectors

24 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 24 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1994199720002003200620092012 MMBOE North America Middle East Latin America Europe Australasia Asia Africa Deepwater reserves due on-stream per annum Mid-term trend Large Africa fields coming on-stream clearly visible

25 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 25 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1999200020012002200320042005200620072008 Actual Year of Spend $m AsiaAfrica AustralasiaEurope Latin AmericaMiddle East North America Mid-term trend? Note - growing importance of Africa 04-08 $m % Deepwater overall expenditure by region Note – emergence of Asia & Australasia

26 Every Region Experiencing Some Growth (5yr vs 5yr) All deepwater sectors 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1999200020012002200320042005200620072008 Actual Year of Spend $m AsiaAfrica AustralasiaEurope Latin AmericaMiddle East North America Significant growth in Asia & Australasia

27 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 27 Australasia – 2% market share 04-08 Small number of developments but an emerging market Led by local players at present Platform expenditure Are there enough prospects to maintain momentum? Enfield & Stybarrow FPSOs

28 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 28 The number of fields brought on- stream by top ten operators increases but it is the remaining operators who are growing in influence. No. of new fields brought on-stream by operators - Global The number of field owners is also increasing and there is a trend of owners eventually moving into operatorships as their experience grows.

29 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 29 Global subsea development expenditure Australasia subsea - deepwater

30 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 30 Worldwide deepwater subsea production well trends 1000m 2000m 3000m

31 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 31 Australasia – Development Strategies

32 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 32 Australasia – combined deepwater expenditure Effectively a new sector Deepwater ave = 83% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Golden triangle ave = 74% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Whilst second smallest region – next to fastest growing (Asia)

33 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 33 Asia – combined deepwater expenditure Asia 446% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) $3.6bn Deepwater ave = 83% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Golden triangle ave = 74% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Already the 4 th Most Significant Deepwater Region

34 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 34 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1998200020022004200620082010 Year Installed WD (m) Kikeh Kamunsu Asia - Cost trend by water depth – all platforms Australasian experience can be used in Asia The number & scale of prospects is growing all the time – the key question is timing

35 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 35 Asia & Australasia deepwater subsea production well trends Continued move into deeper waters expected

36 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 36 Across Asia & Australasia we are seeing - wide range of development scenarios innovation in design & approach steep learning curve strong NOC & independent lead increased need for cooperation on delaying issues but a growing list of prospects world-class opportunities

37 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 37 Asian Deepwater Prospects CountryOperatorFieldDISC.ONSTATUSWDDEVELOPMENT TYPE PhilippinesShellMalampaya (SC-38)19922001Producing820Fixed Production Platform and Subsea PhilippinesShellMalampaya Oil Rim EWT (SC-38)20002001Suspended845Floating Production IndonesiaUnocalWest Seno19982003Producing953Floating Production IndiaRelianceD6 Field (KG-DWN-98/3) (Dhirubhai)20022006Firm Plan900Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative) PhilippinesShellMalampaya Oil Rim (SC-38)20002006Possible845Floating Production IndonesiaUnocalGehem20032006Probable1823Subsea Satellite to Onshore Facility MalaysiaMurphyKikeh (Sabah Block SB-K)20022007Firm Plan1340Floating Production IndiaONGCM Field (KG-DWN-98/2) (Padmavati)20012007Possible500Subsea Satellite to Floating Production IndonesiaUnocalMerah Besar19972007Probable520Floating Production IndonesiaUnocalSadewa20032008Firm Plan550Floating Production IndonesiaUnocalAton19992008Possible1150Subsea Satellite to Floating Production JapanJapexSanriku Oki20002008Possible857No Development Scheme Announced Yet MalaysiaShellKamunsu East North20002008Possible1000Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative) IndiaONGCKrishna-Godavari KD-1-120002008Possible844Subsea Satellite to Onshore Facility IndiaONGCAnnapurna (KG-DWN-98/2 R-Cluster)20012008Possible1030Fixed Production Platform and Subsea MalaysiaShellGumusut (Sabah SB-J)20042008Possible1000Floating Production IndonesiaUnocalHijau Besar19982009Possible686Subsea Satellite to Floating Production BruneiShellMerpati/Meragi19932009Possible500No Development Scheme Announced Yet MalaysiaShellKamunsu East19992009Possible737Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production IndonesiaUnocalJanaka North19992009Possible1316Subsea Satellite to Floating Production IndiaMurphyD6-D1 Field (KG-DWN-98/3)(Dhirubhai Southeast20032009Possible1280No Development Scheme Announced Yet MalaysiaMurphyKikeh Kecil (Sabah Block SB-K)20032009Possible1359Subsea Satellite to Floating Production IndiaONGCKrishna-Godavari G-420042009Possible500No Development Scheme Announced Yet PhilippinesShellCamago (SC-38)19892009Probable736Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production IndonesiaUnocalRanggas20012009Probable1616Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative) IndonesiaUnocalGendalo19992010Possible1425Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative) IndiaONGCN Field (KG-DWN-98/2)20012010Possible500No Development Scheme Announced Yet IndonesiaAmerada HessHalimun (Tanjung Ara)20022010Possible1061No Development Scheme Announced Yet IndonesiaAmerada HessPapandayan (Tanjung Ara)20022010Possible555No Development Scheme Announced Yet IndiaRelianceD6-F1 Field (KG-DWN-98/3) (Dhirubhai East)20032010Possible1756No Development Scheme Announced Yet MalaysiaMurphyKakap (Sabah Block SB-K)20042010Possible926No Development Scheme Announced Yet IndonesiaInpexJambu Aye Utara19842011Licence Surrendered1200No Development Scheme Announced Yet IndonesiaUnocalBangka19992011Possible980Subsea Satellite to Floating Production PhilippinesShellSan Martin (SC-38)19822012Possible850No Development Scheme Announced Yet IndonesiaUnocalPutih Besar19972012Possible535Subsea Satellite to Floating Production IndonesiaUnocalGula20002012Possible1844Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production IndonesiaUnocalGandang20002014Possible1684Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production IndonesiaUnocalGada20002015Possible1897Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production IndonesiaUnocalMaha20022016Possible742Subsea Satellite to Floating Production

38 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 38 Australia – Opportunities

39 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 39 Regional leadership To be at the forefront of regional deepwater developments Potential to develop a long-term deepwater programme Development of low-cost and flexible solutions Cross regional opportunities

40 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 40 Australasian Deepwater Prospects Over $900m of deepwater capex forecast over the next five years Conservative forecast – much greater potential OPERATOR NAMEFIELD NAME YEAR DISC. YEAR ON STREAMSTATUS OIL RES GAS RES COND RESWD PROD RATE OIL (BPD) PROD RATE GAS(MMCFD)DEVELOPMENT TYPE Esso Australia Resources LtdScarborough19792010Possible6000912600 Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative) ChevronTexaco Australia Pty Ltd Chrysaor (Gorgon Area)19952012Possible290075818360 Subsea Satellite to Onshore Facility BHP Billiton Petroleum Pty Ltd Novara (WA- 155-P(1)19952012Possible45101530000 Subsea Satellite to Floating Production Woodside Energy Ltd Enfield (WA- 271-P)19992006Under Devt1111152065000Floating Production Woodside Energy Ltd Laverda (WA- 271-P)20002008Firm Plan652085035000 Subsea Satellite to Floating Production BHP Billiton Petroleum Pty Ltd Stybarrow (WA-255-P(2)20032007Firm Plan501082520000Floating Production BHP Billiton Petroleum Pty Ltd Skiddaw (WA- 255-P(2)20032009Possible301078010000 Subsea Satellite to Floating Production BHP Billiton Petroleum Pty Ltd Eskdale (WA- 255-P(2)20042011Possible151082210000 No Development Scheme Announced Yet

41 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Australasian Deepwater Email: will@infield.com Will Rowley Director of Analytical Services Deepwater maps available – limited number Presentation is available on request – large file

42 THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS www.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005 42


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