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Covering The Bases Bernard Pettingill, Ph.D.. Economic Damages - Bases Life Expectancy / WLE Continuation of Care Plan Medical Inflation / Attendant Care.

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Presentation on theme: "Covering The Bases Bernard Pettingill, Ph.D.. Economic Damages - Bases Life Expectancy / WLE Continuation of Care Plan Medical Inflation / Attendant Care."— Presentation transcript:

1 Covering The Bases Bernard Pettingill, Ph.D.

2 Economic Damages - Bases Life Expectancy / WLE Continuation of Care Plan Medical Inflation / Attendant Care Presentation Life Expectancy / WLE Continuation of Care Plan Medical Inflation / Attendant Care Presentation

3 New Technology Waste, Inefficiency & Fraud Medical R&D Aging Population New Technology Waste, Inefficiency & Fraud Medical R&D Aging Population Reasons for Cost Increases

4 Life Expectancy Census Data Optimal Care - Based on L.E. Census Data Optimal Care - Based on L.E.

5 Routine M.D. Visits Therapies ADLs Diagnostics Orthopedic Equipment Supplies Routine M.D. Visits Therapies ADLs Diagnostics Orthopedic Equipment Supplies Categories of Need Attendant CareAttendant Care

6 YEAR YEAR MEDICAL CARE 4.3% 4.8% 5.1% 4.5% 5.0% 4.3% MEDICAL CARE 4.3% 4.8% 5.1% 4.5% 5.0% 4.3% Year to Year Changes in Medical Care Costs

7 FROM YEAR TO YEAR # OF YEARS ALL MEDICAL CARE MEDICAL CARE SERVICES PROFESSIONAL SERVICES MEDICAL CARE COMMODI- TIES, PRESCRIP- TIONS AND DRUGS HOSPITAL ROOM AND RELATED SERVICES % 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.5% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 4.8% 4.5% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 4.8% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 6.3% 6.6% 6.8% 6.1% 5.6% 5.3% 6.3% 6.6% 6.8% 6.1% 5.6% 5.3%

8 Sample Case White Female Age 2.0 Life Expectancy = 79.7 years 24 Hour Nursing Care (HOME) $30.50/Hour/LPN Discount Factor = 4.5%

9 Model 1: Growth Rate = 3.4% Present Value = $14.36m Model 2: Growth Rate = Discount rate Present Value = $21.08m Model 3: Growth Rate = 5.4% (25yr. Avg.) Present Value = $30.01m Models

10 Testimony - Economist Long Version / Short VersionLong Version / Short Version Question / AnswerQuestion / Answer Charts / ELMO / OverheadCharts / ELMO / Overhead

11 Recent Life Expectancy Tables Medical Vs General Inflation Sample - Goods / Services 1940, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90s Recent Life Expectancy Tables Medical Vs General Inflation Sample - Goods / Services 1940, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90s Trial Charts

12 $25.0 MILLION

13 $28.0 MILLION

14 $51.6 MILLION

15 CONSULTING ECONOMIST PHONE (561) CELL (561) FAX (561) TOLL FREE (800) CONSULTING ECONOMIST PHONE (561) CELL (561) FAX (561) TOLL FREE (800) BERNARD F. PETTINGILL, PH.D. #93 Sandbourne Lane P.G.A. NATIONAL PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL


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