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AGM & Conference of the CAIB FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES.

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Presentation on theme: "AGM & Conference of the CAIB FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES."— Presentation transcript:

1 AGM & Conference of the CAIB FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

2 Status of USA Economy American jobless 10 million, most in 25 years American jobless 10 million, most in 25 years Huge current account deficit - about 6% of GDP, way above the 3% sustainable level Huge current account deficit - about 6% of GDP, way above the 3% sustainable level Credit crunch and reduced disposable incomes Credit crunch and reduced disposable incomes Uncertainty regarding the future!! Uncertainty regarding the future!!

3 Status UK Economy UK jobless 1.8 million UK jobless 1.8 million the pound above $2.11 in November 2007 the pound above $2.11 in November 2007 Nov 11, 2008, the pound fell 0.2 per cent to $ Nov 11, 2008, the pound fell 0.2 per cent to $ Worries over the outlook for the economy Worries over the outlook for the economy Investors abandoning UK financial stocks. Investors abandoning UK financial stocks.

4 Aviation Status – UK British Airways reported a 92% slump in first-half profits yesterday due to high fuel costs and the banking crisis. British Airways reported a 92% slump in first-half profits yesterday due to high fuel costs and the banking crisis. BA said it would cut capacity next summer, usually the busiest period for carriers, as it signalled a pessimistic outlook for 2009 BA said it would cut capacity next summer, usually the busiest period for carriers, as it signalled a pessimistic outlook for 2009

5 Aviation Status – UK & USA XL Leisure Group termination of service from London Gatwick to Barbados, St Lucia and Antigua XL Leisure Group termination of service from London Gatwick to Barbados, St Lucia and Antigua BMI termination of service from Gatwick to to Barbados and Antigua BMI termination of service from Gatwick to to Barbados and Antigua

6 Aviation Status - Caribbean December 2008, U.S. airlines have scheduled 17% less service to the Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, compared with December 2007 (Source: OAG flight schedules) December 2008, U.S. airlines have scheduled 17% less service to the Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, compared with December 2007 (Source: OAG flight schedules) Reduction in service to international markets— including regional turboprop service, mostly by American Eagle, to neighboring Caribbean destinations. Reduction in service to international markets— including regional turboprop service, mostly by American Eagle, to neighboring Caribbean destinations.

7 Aviation Status - Caribbean October 2007, there were 418 weekly flights to international markets; October 2008, only 268 weekly flights (35.9% reduction from 2007). October 2007, there were 418 weekly flights to international markets; October 2008, only 268 weekly flights (35.9% reduction from 2007). Number of seats per week to these international markets reduce 34.6% in just one year, from 28,742 last October to 18,799 in Oct 2008 Number of seats per week to these international markets reduce 34.6% in just one year, from 28,742 last October to 18,799 in Oct 2008 The cutbacks come at a time when the Caribbean is seeing huge investment and expansion in physical plant. The cutbacks come at a time when the Caribbean is seeing huge investment and expansion in physical plant.

8 Aviation Status - Caribbean Jamaica has entered an agreement with the US legacy carrier American Airlines, to guarantee well over 2,000 additional seats per week to the island Jamaica has entered an agreement with the US legacy carrier American Airlines, to guarantee well over 2,000 additional seats per week to the island AA service to Grenada and St. Lucia AA service to Grenada and St. Lucia New nonstop service fro France to the Bahamas from December 2008 New nonstop service fro France to the Bahamas from December 2008

9 Tourism and Economic Impact Jamaica expects a 30 per cent decrease in stopover arrivals for the upcoming winter tourist season Jamaica expects a 30 per cent decrease in stopover arrivals for the upcoming winter tourist season "We are feeling it here in The Bahamas in a very substantial way. "People are working one and two days a week, many aren't working at all, some have been laid off and others will be laid off." (P.M. Ingraham of the Bahamas) "We are feeling it here in The Bahamas in a very substantial way. "People are working one and two days a week, many aren't working at all, some have been laid off and others will be laid off." (P.M. Ingraham of the Bahamas)

10 Tourism and Economic Impact "What has happened in the world is going to take quite a while to go away.“ (P.M. Ingraham of the Bahamas) "What has happened in the world is going to take quite a while to go away.“ (P.M. Ingraham of the Bahamas) The current situation is quite different from that which existed at Then it was an issue of fear and the effects were mostly felt in the USA and Britain to a lesser extent but, people still had money to travel. Today, the issue is one of economic and financial uncertainty, primarily as they relate to jobs and incomes and, these concerns are global. The current situation is quite different from that which existed at Then it was an issue of fear and the effects were mostly felt in the USA and Britain to a lesser extent but, people still had money to travel. Today, the issue is one of economic and financial uncertainty, primarily as they relate to jobs and incomes and, these concerns are global.

11 Tourism and Economic Impact UN World Tourism Organization (WTO) World Tourism Barometer projects that the first five months of the year were strong enough to propel overall global tourism growth by two percent for the year. UN World Tourism Organization (WTO) World Tourism Barometer projects that the first five months of the year were strong enough to propel overall global tourism growth by two percent for the year. The current troubled economic scenario is expected to continue into 2009 The current troubled economic scenario is expected to continue into 2009

12 Prognosis for the Future Past experience has shown that travel and tourism always rebounds from cyclical downturns - sometimes even stronger than before. Past experience has shown that travel and tourism always rebounds from cyclical downturns - sometimes even stronger than before. governments should provide a supportive policy framework to help stimulate demand and ensure that travel and tourism continues to generate employment governments should provide a supportive policy framework to help stimulate demand and ensure that travel and tourism continues to generate employment

13 A Look at Trends international arrivals in 1950 international arrivals in 1950 estimated 806 million in 2005 estimated 806 million in 2005 average annual growth rate of 6.5% average annual growth rate of 6.5% International tourist arrivals reached 903 million in 2007 International tourist arrivals reached 903 million in 2007 International tourism receipts grew to US$ 856 billion International tourism receipts grew to US$ 856 billion

14 Projections for Growth Long-haul travel worldwide projected to grow at 5.4 per cent per year over the period Long-haul travel worldwide projected to grow at 5.4 per cent per year over the period international tourist arrivals worldwide 1.6 billion forecast by 2020 international tourist arrivals worldwide 1.6 billion forecast by 2020

15 Projections for Growth WTO projects that by 2020 the top three receiving regions WTO projects that by 2020 the top three receiving regions Europe (717 million tourists) Europe (717 million tourists) East Asia and the Pacific (397 million) East Asia and the Pacific (397 million) the Americas (282 million) the Americas (282 million) Africa (77 million) Africa (77 million) the Middle East (69 million) the Middle East (69 million) South Asia (19 million) South Asia (19 million)

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17 Opportunities Marketing the Caribbean as a single destination Marketing the Caribbean as a single destination Review and strengthen regulatory framework for investment Review and strengthen regulatory framework for investment Further diversify tourism product - sports, health, culinary, MICE, ancillary services and Further diversify tourism product - sports, health, culinary, MICE, ancillary services and markets – India, China, South America markets – India, China, South America Create vehicles and instruments for greater local participation in tourism investment Create vehicles and instruments for greater local participation in tourism investment

18 Opportunities Prepare implementable Tourism master Plans to guide the development of the sector Prepare implementable Tourism master Plans to guide the development of the sector Undertake airline capacity studies to ensure that plans for aviation support plans for expansion in the accommodation sub-sector Undertake airline capacity studies to ensure that plans for aviation support plans for expansion in the accommodation sub-sector Re-focus on tourism public education and awareness Re-focus on tourism public education and awareness

19 End of Part 1 End of Part 1

20 Projections for Growth Worldwide, international tourist arrivals grew at around 5% between January and April 2008, compared to the same period of 2007 Worldwide, international tourist arrivals grew at around 5% between January and April 2008, compared to the same period of 2007

21 MARKET PERFORMANCE United States United States Grew by an average 2.8% per annum since 2002 Grew by an average 2.8% per annum since 2002 Up by 1.5% during Jan-Jul 2008 Up by 1.5% during Jan-Jul 2008 Unexpected hikes in oil prices almost crippled some airlines Unexpected hikes in oil prices almost crippled some airlines AA: Reduced seating capacity from Sept. – Jan; also down for Europe; fares significantly up AA: Reduced seating capacity from Sept. – Jan; also down for Europe; fares significantly up Air Jamaica, Delta and Continental increased capacity; Air Jamaica, Delta and Continental increased capacity; BMI termination of service to Barbados and Antigua BMI termination of service to Barbados and Antigua Tour operators: Bookings down across the board Tour operators: Bookings down across the board

22 MARKET PERFORMANCE CANADA CANADA Grew by an average 10.4% per annum since 2002 Grew by an average 10.4% per annum since 2002 Up by 17.7% during Jan-Jul 2008 Up by 17.7% during Jan-Jul 2008 Still among stronger economies in G8; projected GDP growth: 3.1% in 2006 & 2007 Still among stronger economies in G8; projected GDP growth: 3.1% in 2006 & 2007 Best performing Caribbean market mainly to Cuba & Dom Rep Best performing Caribbean market mainly to Cuba & Dom Rep Expected to retain resilience in the coming year. Expected to retain resilience in the coming year.

23 MARKET PERFORMANCE EUROPE EUROPE Grew by an average 3.0% per annum since 2002 Grew by an average 3.0% per annum since 2002 Up by 11.5% during Jan-Jul 2008; Up by 11.5% during Jan-Jul 2008; Year started remarkably well but dived; affected by galloping oil prices, etc Year started remarkably well but dived; affected by galloping oil prices, etc General outlook for weak 2008/9 winter General outlook for weak 2008/9 winter

24 January – September 2008* January – September 2008* Jan-Jul % change Jan-Jul % change /’ /’07 Occupancy 67.6% -2.3% Occupancy 67.6% -2.3% Room Rate $ % Room Rate $ % RevPAR $ % RevPAR $ %


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