Presentation on theme: "An Economic Forecast in Uncertain Times Orlando, FL May 22nd, 2014."— Presentation transcript:
An Economic Forecast in Uncertain Times Orlando, FL May 22nd, 2014
U.S. Forecast Policy Uncertainty Still Hangs Over the Economy Health Care Reform Impact on labor market Delayed mandates Dodd-Frank Financial Regulatory Reform Impact on credit flows & financial sector 45.7% (128) Fiscal “Cliff” Sequester, shutdown/debt ceiling … Monetary Policy
U.S. Forecast The economic impact of economic policy uncertainty Statistical analysis shows that higher policy uncertainty causes: 1.Lower private investment 2.Lower industrial production 3.Much lower employment
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
Sky Mall™ Policy: An Expensive Policy that Fails to Achieve its Desired Outcome
Sky Mall™ Policies: T.A.R.P. Foreclosure Prevention Act 2008 ARRA of 2009 Shovel ready projects Making work pay tax breaks Affordable Care Act Dodd-Frank HIRE Act 2010
U.S. Forecast Lost housing wealth Weak labor market recovery Both have weighed on consumers “Mini age of austerity”
U.S. Household Wealth (Trillions of $) Q1* 2013 Q4 Total Assets Financial Assets Home Equity Net Worth
U.S. Economic Outlook 2013 Q Q Q GDP % Change, Annual Rate Consumer Price Index % Change, Annual Rate Consumer Sentiment Consumption % Change, Annual Rate
Monetary Policy The job of the Federal Reserve is to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going William McChesney Martin Former Fed Chairman U.S. Forecast
Florida Housing Market Housing market recovery continues to unfold Double-digit price appreciation High level of investor activity Housing finance still problematic Will momentum be maintained?
Florida Housing Market
February 2014 February 2013 Percent change Closed Sales15,82615,5911.5% Median Sale Price $165,000$150, % Median Days on Market % Inventory ( Months Supply ) % Florida Housing Market
Investors are still active in Florida residential real estate Evidenced by high share of cash transactions Private equity & hedge funds Is this a good thing or a bad thing?
February 2014 February 2013 Cash as % of February 2014 Sales Florida7,5967, % Miami1,4291, % Tampa1,1221, % Jacksonville % Orlando % Housing Market Cash Sales
Housing Market Housing Finance Unsustainably high share of cash transactions Mortgage availability has been restricted by Dodd Frank Capital Standards Underwriting Standards Limited Private Securitization Demise of Mortgage Brokering Shell shock Is this a good thing or a bad thing?
Averages; Q Forecast Florida Sector % Average Annual Growth Construction8.7 Professional & Business Services4.3 Trade, Transportation & Utilities4.0 Education-Health Services2.3 Leisure & Hospitality1.9 Information1.8 Manufacturing1.3 Financial0.8 State & Local Government0.6 Federal Government
Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida Deltona 1.18 Gainesville Jacksonville 1.44 Lakeland Miami 1.25 Naples 2.51 Ocala 1.73 Orlando 2.02 Palm Bay Pensacola 0.99 Tallahassee 1.17 Tampa Averages; Q Forecast
Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida Deltona Gainesville Jacksonville 2.26 Lakeland 1.99 Miami 2.34 Naples 4.31 Ocala 2.63 Orlando 3.02 Palm Bay 2.07 Pensacola 1.98 Tallahassee Tampa Averages; Q Forecast
Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness (407) Thank you