1. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Filipe Lúcio flucio@wmo
Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Filipe Lúcio

2. Seamless hydrometeorological and climate services

3. What are Climate Services?
The accumulation of knowledge about the past, present and future of the climate system;
The development and delivery of a range of "products" and advice based on this knowledge about the past, present and future climate and its impacts on natural and human systems
Historical climate data sets
Climate monitoring
Climate watches
Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions
Climate change projections
The use and the effective application of these products to help achieve the desired results.
Providing climate information in a way that assists decision making by individuals and organizations. A service requires appropriate engagement along with an effective access mechanism and must respond to user needs.

4. Decision-making across timescales
Continue monitoring
Short-time-scale forecasts
Adjust plans
Alert volunteers, warn
communities
Local preparation activities
Begin planning and monitoring of
forecasts
Update contingency plans
Train volunteers
Sensitize communities
Enable early-warning systems
Activate volunteers
Instruction to communities
to evacuate, if needed
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you , get, Mark Twain

5. Within every society, there is a certain capacity to cope with hazards
What it used to be...
Within every society, there is a certain capacity to cope with hazards
Climate variability and change increase uncertainty, can increase or decrease this coping range.
Probability
P (x)
Coping range
Drought
Flooding
X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.)
Source: Wilhite 2006

6. Concern... Need for > coping mechanisms Vulnerability and
Energy
Water Resource
Management
Heatwaves
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Tropical Cyclones
Coastal Marine Hazards
Strong Wind
Food security
Transport
Intensity
Health
Industry
Urban areas
Vulnerability and
exposure on the rise !
Hazards’ intensity and frequency are increasing
Need for > coping
mechanisms
Frequency

7. Concern... Infrastructural Capacities of Countries
as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential,
Full and Advanced Climate Services.

8. The GFCS
Goal
Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change, through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice on the global, regional and national scale

9. The principles of the GFCS
1 - Priority shall go to building the capacity of climate-vulnerable developing countries
2 - Ensure greater availability of, access to, and use of climate services for all countries
3 - Three geographic domains; global, regional and national
4 - Operational climate services will be the core element of the Framework
5 - Climate information is primarily an international public good provided by governments, which will have a central role in its management through the Framework
6 - Promote free and open exchange of climate-relevant observational data while respecting national and international data policies
7 - The role of the Framework will be to facilitate and strengthen, not to duplicate
8 - Built on user needs through user – provider partnerships that include all stakeholders

10. Disaster Risk Management
ThE World Economic Forum recently published a report entitled…in which the above model is presented. On a conceptual level the elements of disaster risk management are presented here and these have a very delicate relationship and as we will see later, there is need to shift from Recovery to Mitigation and early preparedness
WEF, 2011

11. Building Resilience Early Warning WEF, 2011 (adapted)
Building Resilience of communities means that early preparedness is required in both policy change and focus as well as critical infrastructure including Early Warning Capability not least Hydro Meteorological Services. These include changes to building codes, local planning regulations etc. Shifting financial preparedness from post-recovery to early preparedness means that there will be more rapid recovery post the catastrophe as opposed to the current scenario where recovery takes long (Nigeria Floods 2012, Hurricane Sandy 2012, India 2012 etc.) In brief, investment in physical resilience, reduces the immediate effect of a catastrophe, reducing long term impact and allowing for faster recovery post the catastrophe
WEF, 2011 (adapted)

12. Application for Agriculture
Climate outlooks are enabling the issue of food security outlooks that help farmers, governments and relief agencies to take action ahead of time in case of expected food insecurity 12
Food Security Outlook for Horn of Africa based on seasonal forecast 12

13. New trial user products: onset prediction and monitoring
Probability of early ‘onset’
Probability of late ‘onset’
Prediction is based on local time of arrival of 20% of long-term seasonal average
Early onset predicted most likely
Early onset occurred
Greater Horn of Africa, short-rains season 2011 – 1 month lead time prediction
CSRP monitoring product: Observed time of ‘onset‘ (in days difference from long-term average
New experimental products have been developed as part of CSRP to deliver the new science to users
Experimental real-time forecasts of rainy season onset timing have been generated and disseminated to RCOFs in West and East Africa and in southern Africa. Feedback on these products has been very positive, and indeed the trial forecasts have been encouraging. For example, a strongly enhanced probability of early onset of the 2011 short-rains over East Africa was predicted - and early onset occurred.
Similarly an enhanced probability of delayed onset of the southern African season was predicted - and delays were observed.
Three CSRP fellows are interacting with this work - helping to evaluate the usefulness of the onset predictions to applications in agriculture.
Top 2 panels indicate the % probability of early onset (red region indicates >80% probability of early onset), and % probability of late onset (blue region indicates <20% probability of late onset). These predicted probabilities should be compared with the ‘average’ chances of early or late as defined here – which are both 33%.
The observations (as plotted on a new CSRP monitoring product) indicates useful advice issued.
Assessment over retrospective cases indicates forecast can discriminate early/late onset in ~70% of cases (Tanzania/Kenya)
Note this work is still in development and an active research area, but trial products are already proving useful.
Assessment over retrospective cases indicates forecast can discriminate early/late onset in ~70% of cases (Tanzania/Kenya)
Onset forecasts being trialled at regional centres in East, West and southern Africa

14. Applications for disaster risk management
Climate services provide critical information for prevention and contingency planning against climate extremes that can result in disasters. It can help decision-making for sitting critical infrastructure such as schools and hospitals, etc. In addition, climate information is fundamental for understanding the characteristics of hazards including their changing patterns and forward looking predictions and projections
In 2009, for the first time, the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) using a seasonal forecast made an emergency appeal before the even (flood)t. This resulted in better preparedness and response to the expected flood. Emergency personnel had their visas to go onsite, supplies were prepositioned in critical locations. IFCR was able to respond within days as opposed to the weeks to months generally required.
Early warning of potential hazards
Improved land-use planning
Insurance markets 14 14 14

15. Early implementation
Pilot projects in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, South Africa, Spain.
Under preparation: Belize, SWPI
Regional workshops for the most vulnerable countries
South East Asia, Caribbean
SWPI, SEE, Latin America
Norway instrumental in facilitating, through voluntary contributions, the conditions for implementation of the GFCS in its first phase.
Its example being followed by other countries. To date CHF 18 million have been transferred to WMO or officially pledged by a total of 10 Members (Norway, Canada, Switzerland, India, China, Hong Kong (China), Canada*, Ireland*, UK*, Republic of Korea*) .
* = pledged
Initial activities by the Secretariat
Pilot Projects: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger; under preparation: Botswana, Chad, Nepal, Spain
Regional Implementation: Workshop for LDCs in Asia, Bangkok, October 2012; under preparation: Eastern and Southern Africa, West Africa; Caribbean; Portuguese Speaking Countries
Example: Roving seminars on weather and climate information to make farmers more self-reliant in dealing with weather and climate issues that affect agricultural production
Left image: farmers are provided with plastic rain gauges and logbooks and taught how to read and record observations
Right image: opening ceremony of roving seminars in Nigeria in September 2012, organized by NIMET and funded by Norwegian MFA)

16. 10 Pre-requisites
Provide a strong institutional anchorage for the Framework for Climate Services
Meet the demand for tailored climate service provision in the priority climate-sensitive sectors in the country (Agriculture & Food security, Health, Disaster Risk Management, Construction/Infrastructure/ Transport sector, etc.)
Build the capacity of the NHMS and other technical services to jointly elaborate salient climate products and services, building on pluri-disciplinary knowledge and expertise from each sector
Improve the Communication / widespread distribution of Climate Services
Diversify communication channels, use innovative channels to broadcast (aside from TV)
Modernize and increase the density of the national hydro-meteorological observing network, improving capacity to meet end-user needs
Improve collaborative climate research, towards more salient end-user driven climate research outputs
Develop and strengthen the capacity of end-users to further appropriate and utilize climate services
Sustain the newly defined Framework for Climate Services at the national level
Engage all national stakeholders involved in the production, interpretation, communication and utilization of climate services in a national dialogue around climate service provision, to identify country needs and charter a course for the provision of user-tailored climate services at the national and sub-national levels.
Norway instrumental in facilitating, through voluntary contributions, the conditions for implementation of the GFCS in its first phase.
Its example being followed by other countries. To date CHF 18 million have been transferred to WMO or officially pledged by a total of 10 Members (Norway, Canada, Switzerland, India, China, Hong Kong (China), Canada*, Ireland*, UK*, Republic of Korea*) .
* = pledged
Initial activities by the Secretariat
Pilot Projects: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger; under preparation: Botswana, Chad, Nepal, Spain
Regional Implementation: Workshop for LDCs in Asia, Bangkok, October 2012; under preparation: Eastern and Southern Africa, West Africa; Caribbean; Portuguese Speaking Countries
Example: Roving seminars on weather and climate information to make farmers more self-reliant in dealing with weather and climate issues that affect agricultural production
Left image: farmers are provided with plastic rain gauges and logbooks and taught how to read and record observations
Right image: opening ceremony of roving seminars in Nigeria in September 2012, organized by NIMET and funded by Norwegian MFA)

17. Benefits Better water resources management
as inputs to hydrological characterisation (e.g. precipitation, evaporation, etc)
in planning, design, development and operation of water supplies
in flood and floodplain management and control
design and operation of irrigation and drainage systems;
for studies associated with power generation, fisheries an conservation, navigation and recreation.
Improved disaster risk management
Planning and emergency preparedness and response to extreme events
Sitting of critical infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, etc
Improved support to planning and operations in the health sector
Risk Assessment/health system risk management
Epidemiological Surveillance & environmental Monitoring
Health Services (heat health warning systems, malaria waning system, etc…)
Improved agricultural planning and management
Better drought and flood management
Improved food security

18. Measuring success The GFSC successful when:
Climate information services are used as regular inputs to decisions in sensitive sector, e.g. water resources management, agriculture, health, disaster risk reduction, energy, tourism, etc.
Climate information is used to inform policy and long-term planning.
The applications of climate information services results in greater efficiencies and effectiveness in various sectors and in the sustainable use of resources.
Improved access to accurate and reliable climate information results in appropriate and robust design and construction codes to withstand climate extremes.
The application of climate services results in saving lives and reducing economic loss caused by natural hazards

19. Thank you for your attention

20. History of the GFCS Third World Climate Conference (2009)
Intergovernmental meeting (Jan 2010)
High Level Task Force (2010)
“Climate knowledge for action: A global framework for climate services – empowering the most vulnerable” (February 2011)
WMO congress (May 2011)
WMO Extraordinary Congress (October 2012)
First Meeting of the Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services (July 2013)
These concerns led to the establishement of the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Exactly this FRAMEWORK was called for in 2009 by the international community. 13 heads of state/heads of government, 81 ministers and 2500 scientists unanimously agreed to develop the GFCS at the WCC 3 and asked WMO to convene an intergovernmental board to approve ToRs of the High Level Task Force. After one year of intensive work and interaction, the 14 members of the HLT proposed elements for the Framework as well as two governance structures for adoption by the World Meteorological Congress in An Executive Council Task Team on the GFCS was set up by the Executive Council Session LXIII, which is in charge of supervising the drafting of a detailed implementation plan that will deliver precise building blocks on how the GFCS will be actually put in place as well as suggestions on the governance structure of the GFCS. An Extraordinary Congress will be held by the end of October 2012 to decide upon the adoption of these proposals.
The GFCS office was set up in June of 2011 within the WMO Secretariat in order to aid in the working of the ECTT. Their first meeting was held in October 2011 where the members agreed on the draft outline of the implementation plan and the actions to take in the coming months until their second meeting which is due to take place by the end of February 2012.