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**Palmer House Hilton – Private Dining Room 9**

A Comparable Method for Benchmarking the Reliability Performance of Electric Utilities Dan Kowalewski IEEE PES 2002 Summer Meeting Chicago, Illinois Palmer House Hilton – Private Dining Room 9 Monday, July 22, 2002 – 2:00 to 5:00 PM

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**Overview Criteria and Desired Elements Analysis Conclusions Approach**

Alternatives Considered Proposed Application Rules Calculation Specifics Analysis Results Conclusions

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**Event Criteria Create Event Exclusion Criteria**

Facilitates Consistent Exclusions Allows “Fair” Benchmarking Provides Information to Understand Performance Trends Repeatability of Results

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**Desired Elements Has Clear Rules for Application and Exclusion**

Removes Subjectivity Scales to Various Sized Utilities Removes Outlying Events Removes Major Weather Variability Allows Trends to Appear Balances Operational Concerns Frequency Duration Allows for Consistent Results Ease of Calculation

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**Analysis: Approach Compare Proposed Methods to Understand**

Consistency and Understandability Differences of Exclusions Impacts on Different Sized Companies Variability of Results A Great Deal of Confusion Initially Methodology and Calculation Approach was Not Clear 3 Years vs 5 Years of Historic Data Log vs Non-Log Data Basis Unclear: SAIDI, SAIFI, Customer Minutes Had to Apply Data to Understand Traded Methodology and Results Ensures Consistent Application Expanded Understanding with Broader Data Set

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**Analysis: Alternatives Considered**

Traditional 10% IEEE Definition ComEd Region ComEd PECO Bootstrap 3 Year Historic 5 Year Historic 2.5 or 3 Beta (SAIDI per Day) 6 Beta (SAIDI per Day) Other Analysis SAIDI per Calendar Day Start Time of Interruption Customer Interruption Minutes Experienced per Day Rolling 24 Hour Window

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**Alternative Comparison**

Removes Weather Variability Clear Rules for Exclusion Removes Subjectivity Removes Outliers Balances Frequency Balances Duration Ease of Calculation Allows Trending Scalability

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**ComEd Major Event Days * * * * * * * Based On Outage Start Date**

* * Customer Interruption Minutes by Calendar Day * * * Based on 24 hour rolling customer outages

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*** Based On Outage Start Date**

ComEd Major Event Days * * Based On Outage Start Date

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**3 Beta SAIDI Day -Threshold Calculation**

IEEE data (all outages > 5minutes) Five years of most recent historic SAIDI per day data Take the log of SAIDI per day values Calculate the mean Calculate the population standard deviation Calculate the mean plus 3 times the standard deviation Convert back to SAIDI per day values by taking the exponential of the calculated mean plus 3 times the standard deviation number Results in a Threshold Exclusion value Threshold value is applied to the year following the five-year data analysis period All days with SAIDI greater than or equal to the calculated Threshold value are considered Major Event Days

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**Thresholds of Daily SAIDI (3 Year Rolling)**

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**Thresholds of Daily SAIDI (5 Year Rolling)**

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**Variability of Thresholds**

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**PECO - Variability of Thresholds**

Bootstrap 3 Beta 3 Beta Bootstrap Bootstrap Thresholds can be highly volatile, especially with few years of data (the saturation effect).

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ComEd Daily SAIDI ( )

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ComEd Daily SAIDI ( )

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ComEd Daily SAIDI ( )

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**Conclusions Recommend 3 Beta SAIDI per Day Achieves Objectives**

Consistent Facilitates Fair Benchmarking Provides Information to Understand Performance Trends Repeatability of Results Proven with REAL Data

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