1. TTW findings and interpretations: What We Have Learned Briefing for the Social Security Advisory Board’s Disability Policy Panel June 10, 2014 Paul O’Leary Office of Research, Demonstration, and Employment Support

2. Overview Employment activity among beneficiaries who participate in TTW and VR, or say that they want to work Changes after the new 2008 regulations Overall TTW Evaluation findings How earnings interact with benefits 2

3. Employment activity among beneficiaries who participate in TTW and VR, or say that they want to work 3

4. SSA Beneficiaries are Interested in Work All Beneficiaries (2010) Work- Oriented/ not TTW (2010) TTW (2010) Employed (2010) % of Beneficiaries100 38 2*7 Sees self working for pay: In the next year In the next five years 17 27 41 64 60 73 87 74 Sees self leaving disability benefits: In the next year In the next five years 6 16 14 38 18 41 13 23 Goals of work/career advancement 31747650 4 SOURCE: 2010 National Beneficiary Survey (NBS, except* which is based on administrative data ).

5. Many beneficiaries are acting on their interest in work All Beneficiaries (2010) Work- oriented/not TTW (2010) TTW (2010) All Employed Beneficiaries (2010) Training/job modification/advice/on the job training 18286158 Work assessment/help to find a job 20296154 5 SOURCE: 2010 National Beneficiary Survey.

6. Not Work- OrientedWork-Oriented All DI-OnlyConcurrentSSI-Only Earnings in at least one year (2004–2007)15%45%49%51%37% Average earnings$5,121$7,091$8,605$4,781$6,087 Earnings in all four years5%21%24%23%15% 6 Those who say they want to work do become employed. Source: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. analysis based on 2004 NBS matched to annual IRS earnings data. Note: Earnings expressed in 2007 dollars and computed as the mean of individual averages across all years with earnings among those with earnings in any year.

7. Over time many beneficiaries work and reach significant levels of success 7 Source: DAF, for 1996-2006 for SSDI and 1996-2007 for SSI. SSISSDI

8. 8 Work oriented beneficiaries are more likely to leave cash benefits Source: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. analysis based on 2004 NBS matched to 2007 TRF. Note: Leaving the rolls due to work is defined as having monthly cash benefits suspended or terminated due to earnings.

9. Younger beneficiaries are much more likely to become employed 9 46% 28% SSI SSDI 29% 41% 61% SOURCE: 2010 DAF. Note: Work is defined as having earnings greater $1,000 in the given year.

10. Success beyond employment is also significantly higher for younger beneficiaries 10 SSDI Age 18-39 SOURCE: 2010 DAF.

11. Outcomes are better for those getting services and better still when we pay for those services 11 Number Percent who worked at some point by December 2012* Percent who worked above $1,000 in a year by December 2012* Percent who had at least one month of benefits suspended or terminated for work by December 2012** Percent not receiving a benefit in December 2012*** Total VR reimbursement through December 2012 ($ millions)† Total EN payments through December 2012 ($ millions)† Total benefits forgone for work through December 2012 ($ millions) Began receiving VR services in 200662,33176.563.815.84.052.10.2267.5 Began receiving VR services in 2006 and no reimbursement was made58,33275.061.411.62.30.00.1165.6 Began receiving VR services in 2006 and a reimbursement was made3,99999.899.776.928.052.10.1101.9 Assigned a Ticket to an EN in 20064,28481.871.625.17.90.77.936.6 Assigned a Ticket to an EN in 2006 and no EN payment was made3,31876.663.614.62.80.30.012.1 Assigned a Ticket to an EN in 2006 and an EN payment was made96699.499.260.925.40.37.924.4 Source: DAF12

12. 12 Hours and earnings are better for those who get services All Employed Beneficiaries Employed TTW Participants All Participants Assigned to EN Assigned to SVRA Assigned under Traditional Payment Assigned under Milestone- Outcome Payment Assigned under Outcome- Only Payment Mean Hours per Week 22232722 25 Mean Hourly Wage ($) $6.38$8.04$10.28$7.85$7.86$8.44$10.64 Mean Monthly Pay ($) $637$828$1,231$796$803$891$1,195 % Earning Above SGA (>$830/ month) 25325531 3848 Source: 2010 National Beneficiary Survey. Note: Earnings expressed in 2010 dollars and computed as the mean among those with earnings.

13. Those who use services have greater long term employment success 13 SOURCE: 2010 DAF. Received Services from SVRA or EN? NoYes 1996 Cohort Who Completed a TWP51,8708,891 Suspended for Work32,342 62%6,204 70% Terminated for Work17,505 34%4324 49%

14. Months in Suspense/Termination Status Due to Work among Those Suspended 14 Source: Analysis of TRF10 supplemented with DAF11. Beneficiaries who experienced first NSTW in 2002 and were in NSTW in subsequent months as a percentage of all beneficiaries who could have experienced first NSTW in 2002

15. Changes after the new 2008 regulations

16. Overall changes after the new regulations Participation numbers increased after the new rules took effect, but the beneficiary participation rate for TTW was essentially unchanged at about 2.3% (280k) There was a shift from SVRAs (back) to ENs, with ENs assignments growing from 5% to 10%

17. Changes in participation The composition of TTW participants changed –New participants are younger, less educated, more likely to have psychiatric conditions, and less likely to have ever worked for pay. Beneficiaries were: –less likely to report unmet service needs, –more likely to report satisfaction with TTW, but –less likely to be employed.

18. Overall success fell after the implementation of the new regulations Cohort 1 July 2006— June 2007 Cohort 2 July 2007— June 2008 Cohort 3 July 2008— June 2009 Percentage Change from Cohort 1 to Cohort 3 Number of Participants 64,79769,85485,94832.6 Traditional SVRA 60,64964,10972,07618.8 EN Payment Systems 4,1485,74513,872234.4 MO 3,1915,13513,263315.6 OO 957610619-35.3 Number of Participants with NSTW Month 3,7303,4113,246-13.0 Traditional SVRA3,1432,6252,126-32.4 EN Payment Systems5877861,12090.8 MO 371624969161.2 OO 216162151-30.1 Percent of Participants with NSTW Month 5.84.93.8 -34.4 Traditional SVRA5.24.13.0-42.3 EN Payment Systems14.213.78.1-43.0 MO 11.612.27.3-37.0 OO 22.626.624.89.7 Source: Analysis of TRF10 supplemented with DAF11. We believe this decline was primarily driven by the recession and changes in the composition of TTW participants.

19. Overall TTW Evaluation findings 19

20. The bottom line on TTW impacts We reexamined impacts under the original regulations using improved methods (it was not feasible to do so for the period after the change in regulations) We found relative to the VR-only program: –The TTW program had a positive impact on enrollment but –The TTW program did not increase the exits from SSA disability cash benefits Using more robust evaluation methods and covering outcomes through 2007, this confirms our earlier findings Given the gross changes since the new regulations, it is unlikely they are generating positive net impacts

21. Interpretation This does not mean EN or TTW services have no effect. Only that: –EN and VR services under TTW had the same effect as VR services prior to TTW, and –Those beneficiaries at the margin, who got services because of TTW, did not reduce benefit receipt through TTW

22. Other general findings Work supports are under-utilized: SSDI beneficiaries and SSI recipients generally have low awareness and use of many SSA work supports and employment programs. There is substantially greater awareness of SSA’s work supports among participants in the TTW program and employed SSDI beneficiaries and SSI recipients. Still, about 80% of those on SSDI and SSI who had their benefits suspended because of work did not do so under any of the employment services we fund.

23. How earnings interact with benefits (Are our employment expectations realistic?) 23

24. Patterns of Employment Before and After Award by Title 24 Source: SSA DAF-MEF 2012 Note: Employment defined as annual earnings greater than $0

25. Average earnings before and after award for all beneficiaries, 2007 awards 25 Source: SSA DAF-MEF 2012 Note: Average earnings includes those with $0 earnings.

26. 26 SOURCES: 2010 National Beneficiary Survey merged to DAF11-MEF data. Note: Average earnings do not include those with $0 earnings. $10.00-$14.99 Wages and median earnings $15.00 or more Less than $5.00 $5.00-$7.24 $7.25-$9.99

27. Average annual earnings five years before award compared to annualized Substantial Gainful Activity (SGA), 2007 awards 27 SOURCES: DAF-MEF 2012. Note: Average earnings include those with $0 earnings.

28. Average benefits and earnings for all beneficiaries after award in 2009 compared to average earnings for all beneficiaries five years before award, 2007 awards 28 SOURCES: DAF-MEF 2012. Note: Average earnings do not include those with $0 earnings.

29. What Is the Earnings Distribution of Beneficiaries? 29 SOURCES: DAF-MEF 2012.

30. Average earnings after award for all beneficiaries by status five years after award, 1997 awards 30 SOURCES: DAF-MEF 2012. Note: Average earnings include those with $0 earnings except in 2002.

31. General observations about beneficiary work outcomes SSDI beneficiaries and SSI recipients work for extended periods but work part time at jobs with low wages and few benefits. –They work 20 hours per week on average, –32% earn less than the federal minimum wage –21% earn less than $5 per hour. So while many beneficiaries want to work at levels that would allow them to leave benefits, for most this seems out of their reach.

32. Conclusions Beneficiaries want to work and do act on that desire Programs like TTW and VR do help beneficiaries find jobs Beneficiaries in general do not appear able to work at levels that are high enough to let them leave benefits 32