1. www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Spatially explicit negotiation of ecosystem service synergies and trade-offs Tim Pagella 1, Bethanna Jackson 2, Brian Reynolds 3, Colin Thorne 4, Alex Henshaw 4 and Fergus Sinclair 1,5 1 Bangor University 2 Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand 3 Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Bangor 4 University of Nottingham 5 World Agroforestry Centre, Nairobi, Kenya

2. www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Land management and flood risk

3. www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Ecosystem services, including flood regulation, often involve stocks and flows of material or individuals across landscapes: water, soil, carbon, organisms The areal extent and spatial configuration of landscape features (trees, ponds, wetlands) affect these flows and hence the provision of services Change in land use or management and the presence of landscape features affect multiple ecosystem services simultaneously Ecosystem services Ecosystem Services SupportingProvisioning Regulating Cultural

4. www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Polyscape specification Designed as a negotiation tool not a prescriptive model Works for any landscape, using national scale digital elevation, land use/cover and soil data Incorporates participatory validation and local knowledge about where farmers do and do not want trees, ensures local engagement and ownership. Runs fast, in real time, with resolution appropriate for informing field decisions while considering impacts at small (10 km 2 ) to medium (1000 km 2 ) sized landscape contexts

5. A multiple criteria GIS toolbox Spatially explicit evaluation of synergies and trade- offs in the location of trees on surface water flow, farm productivity, sediment transport, carbon storage and biodiversity (woodland habitat connectivity) Polyscape

6. www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Agriculture Surface runoff Habitat connectivity Trade off maps Pontbren (1000 ha)

7. www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Elwy catchment (27 000 ha) CCM River catchment database © European union JRC 2007

8. Conclusions – Polyscape utility Facilitates wide stakeholder engagement Use of proxies for ecosystem services is pragmatic for data sparse contexts Facilitates cross sector evaluation and interdisciplinary research Iterative development and application of tools fosters the development of adaptive strategies It is an operational tool that can be applied to any landscape