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Measures of Short and Long Term Viability of an Agricultural Region Researchers: Xianfeng Su, Geoff Carlin Project leaders: Senthold Asseng, Freeman Cook, Peter Campbell, Michael Poole Main collaborators: Steven Schilizzi, Henry Brockman, Blair Nancarrow, Mescal Stephens, Atakelty Hailu, Angela Wardell-Johnson, Shams Bhuiyan, Scott Heckbert, Mick Harcher, Tom McShane, Art Langston University of Western Australia
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Project Aims & Background Biophysical, Economic and Social Components Analysis Model Design Model Framework Simulation OUTLINE Simulating Farmers and Land-Use Change
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Improve the long-term viability of agricultural regions ? Natural Resource Condition and Trend Stable & resilient local communities Long-term viability characterised by outcomes from: Yield/profit, economic sustainability region
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Objectives, Scenarios and Case Study Areas Objectives To understand the complex interactions between human and landscape change processes To study emergent behaviours in human-landscape systems To improve the long-term viability of an agricultural region Scenarios Climate change Environmental risk perception/management New technology Policies Market Social values Katanning Region in Blackwood Catchment Burdekin Delta
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Biophysical, Economic and Social Changes Trajectory -Individual farmers information -Shires record -Regional data Drivers found -Farmer interviews -Consultants -Literature reviews -Historical land-use change analysis
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30 km risk Natural/planted vegetation Digital Elevation Map
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Historical Land-use Changes Resource: CMIS CSIRO Salinity & Waterlogging riskNatural/planted vegetation cover 30 km
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Change in crop/pasture ratio, Katanning/Kent shire & Auction Price of Greasy Wool Data: Hailu, UWA Wool price (cent/kg) 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Years % of total area 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Years
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Other changes: Population & age pattern Katanning town Data: ABS
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Population decreased, old age trends cropped area increased & pasture area decreased Land value increased Costs of farm operating increased Market price changed New technology: canola has become a major income for some farmers Land degraded Summary 1990 - 2004
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Model design Integrating biophysical, economic and social models Cropping model Social Network Model Economical Model Policies Landscape Soil (erosion, degradation) Surface and ground water Land cover (crops/crop trees/pasture/natural vegetation, infrastructure, town) Livestock Hydrology model Output Land cover and livestock dynamics % degraded land Nutrient cycling Society Farmer: attributes and behaviours. Household: structure, status, management strategies Community: relations & structure, functions Demography dynamics Economics International and National market Bank: interest Household: productions, investment and consumption Output Household cash flow Loan Atmosphere Output Agent’s Courses of Actions; Demographics pattern; Communities structure and changes Information diffusion
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Concept Behind the Decision Making Process Capacities & Constrains of biophysical, economic and social components Model design
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Abstraction of Main Objects Biophysical Capacities & ConstraintsFinancial Capacities & ConstraintsSocial Capacities & Constraints
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Decision Making Process Model design Agent Beliefs + Situation-action rules behaviour (reactive agents) (Doran 1999) Agent Beliefs + Goals + “Rational” Planning behaviour (deliberative agents) (Doran 1999) Person needs and value Ability/capability Opportunity Uncertainty Behaviour
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Decision making drivers - land use Market Economic scale and margin Rotation Time Profit Habits Do the same as last year -- from Farmer Interviews Model design
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Money Time Successful plan Family Skilled casual workers Farm size Risk management -- from Farmer Interviews Constraints for running a farm: Model design
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Evaluate Lifestyle Factors COA Farmer – farm diary driven COA Adopt new farming technology or new crop COA Evaluate environmental perceptions COA Non-farmer low resolution collection of COA’s Employment COA Evaluate Regional Amentities/Services COA Major employer viability COA Abbatoirs Tree Nursery Sheep Saleyards Lumped Retail Lumped Farm Wholesale Government & other organization regional services viability COA Health Services Education Services Local Government Services Sports Clubs Other Recreation & Service Clubs, etc. Top Level COA VIEW
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Simulation For Farmer Action A set of Actions A C Behaviour-oriented Finance flow Trigger Action Information organization Individual /household consequence Gov. Market community D JanFebDecMar. Action AAction B Start End Year Information Information transfer -> Make a decision-> take a action ->Behaviour Change Model design
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An Example of COA in Programming Model design
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A simple Time Template used in the program
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Framework – DIAS/FACET/JEOVIEWER Domain model -- DIAS framework Connect: -Hydrology Model -Economic Model -Social network model Social network & COAs -- FACET Output -- JEOVIEWER
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Simulation
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