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SCOG 2007 Natural Gas Opt-In Program Prepared by: Mark R. Burns, President Independent Energy Consultants, Inc. July 30, 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "SCOG 2007 Natural Gas Opt-In Program Prepared by: Mark R. Burns, President Independent Energy Consultants, Inc. July 30, 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 SCOG 2007 Natural Gas Opt-In Program Prepared by: Mark R. Burns, President Independent Energy Consultants, Inc. July 30, 2007

2 SCOG Program Process & Timeline 1.SCOG representative notify Integrys that SCOG has retained IEC a)Joe Martuccio made call 7/27 2.Request current SCOG information from Exelon and Integrys. Also requested current contracts not be renewed. a)Mark Burns made calls 7/24. Need confirmation from Exelon. b)Need contract information (account #, service & billing addresses, etc.) c)Need most recent 12-months usage information d)Obtaining this from suppliers will greatly minimize members work 3.Send SCOG Invitation Letter to Member Communities - 7/30 a)Draft provided to Joe Martuccio b)Letter should be ed or faxed for the sake of time c)New accounts – Members fax bills to Mark Burns - 8/3 d)All Members - Signed Letter of Intent faxed back to Mark Burns - 8/17 e)Provide Mark Burns with latest SCOG Member contact information 4.SCOG Representative Sign IEC Consulting Contract – 7/31

3 Process & Timeline - Cont. 5.Finalize RFP 8/1 6.Obtain, and analyze group load data 8/6 7.Issue RFP with load data file to eligible suppliers 8/7 8.Respond to supplier questions and bids received 8/20 9.Bids analyzed and recommendation prepared for SCOG 8/21 10.Supplier(s) selected and firm price struck 8/22 - for at least October 11.Contracts completed and accounts enrolled by winning bidder a)IEC prepare contracts to extent possible & hand deliver with instructions b)Members overnight mail contracts to supplier c)COH account enrollment deadlines GTS - 8/31, Choice - 9/14 d)DEO account enrollment deadlines GTS – 9/14 Choice - 9/10 noon

4 Our Energy Procurement Services Needs Planning Market Analysis Auction or Paper RFP Contract Ongoing Support Discuss Goals and Risk Tolerance Review current market conditions Identify Locations Request and Format 12 months historical usage Perform Price- to-Compare Analysis Identify Contract Parameters Structure RFP Alert 100% of registered supply base Run reverse auction Upload contracts, sites and usage Prepare for Renewals Proven Process Ensures Success and Supports Compliance Perform Savings Analysis Recommend Contracting Terms Review and finalize contract Life of Contract

5 Natural Gas Price - Trend Drivers Variable (Price code: red=up, green=down, yellow=na) Short Term (30 – 90 days) Medium Term (3 – 12 mos.) Long Term (1-5 years) N.G. Storage N. G. Rig Count N.G. Rig Output Hurricane Forecast U.S. Public Policy Geo-Political (crude & N.G.) Weather (temperatures) Liquefied Natural Gas Production N.G. Demand (electric, ethanol) N.G. Imports Technical Indicators

6 Short-term Weather Forecast

7 12 vs. 24-Month Strip of Natural Gas Prices Market is trading Contango – shorter term deals more attractive than longer terms

8 October 2007 NYMEX Futures Contract NGV7 - NATURAL GAS October 2007 (NYMEX) [Real time Prices] DateOpenHighLowLastChange 07/27/ Short Term Indicators Average: 60% - Sell Medium Term Indicators Average: 75% - Sell Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell Overall Average: 80% - Sell Price Support Resistance $6.436$6.141 $6.665

9 RFP Construction Price Offers Sought –Fixed Price –Variable Price with option to fix price for any remaining month(s) This allows winter fixed, summer variable if desired –Ability to hedge portions of the load at multiple times Terms Sought –1 year and 2 year periods –2 year term could have separate pricing structure and/or time period in which to strike price Supply Requirements –Firm supply –Contract quantity only, +/- 10% swing, Full Requirements

10 RFP Construction – Cont. Expect separate pricing and possibly separate suppliers –Choice Accounts = Full Requirements Burner Tip pricing $/Mcf DEO; $/Ccf COH –GTS Accounts = Swing volume or Full Requirements TBD City Gate pricing $/Dth with utility conversion to $/Mcf –DEO and COH prices will differ Any Supplier or Sales Representatives to disqualify? Summary billing desired? Payment terms desired? Early termination fee limits? IEC discretion on pre-qualifying well known registered suppliers Administrative fee of $0.05/Mcf Any other value added service desired from suppliers? Any negotiating points to offer to suppliers? Right to match best offer?

11 List of Potential Suppliers Amerada Hess* Commerce Energy Compass Energy Direct Energy* Dominion East Ohio Energy* ECONnergy Energy Exelon Energy* GasMark Integrys Energy* IGS Energy* Lakeshore Energy Metromedia Energy MxEnergy* Soar Energy Vectren Source* Volunteer Energy* * Very familiar with company

12 Program Administrative Issues SCOG Point of Contact for Independent Energy Consultants? –Anyone needing or desiring to be ccd on correspondence? SCOG Point of Contact for SCOG Members? SCOG Decision Committee? (Joe Martuccio, Julie Herr, Craig Chessler) Independent Energy Consultants Contact Information: Mark Burns PH: FAX: Questions? Recap of Action Items

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