Odds and Outs – How to play Draws Strategy: SNG / Tournaments.

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Odds and Outs – How to play Draws Strategy: SNG / Tournaments

Introduction Draws = incomplete hands that still need a community card Odds Probability that one of your outs will be dealt as a community card. Outs All cards that could improve your hand. Pot Odds Ration of possible profit to bet you need to call Risk – Reward Ratio Playing your draws in the different stages of the tournament Fold equity Chance that the opponent will fold after your bet

Outs – what cards will help you? OESD Both an ace and a 6 would complete your draw. Example A Your Outs Monster Draw Every ace, 6 and all remaining hearts would give you a monster here. Example B Your Outs

Other Examples Flush draw 9 Outs OESD 8 Outs Two Overcards 6 Outs A Pair Chance of getting a 3oak or two pairs 5 Outs Gutshot 4 Outs

Odds Odds – What is the probability of completing my draws? Calculation 52 – 5 = 47 cards left in deck 8 cards are helpful (outs) 47 – 8 = 39 cards are not helpful Odds: 39 : 8 -> approx. 5:1 Flop/river odds: 2:1 Your Outs Typical Draws and their Odds Gutshot11:15:1 OESD5:12:1 Flush draw4:12:1 2 Overcards7:13:1 Flush draw + OESD:2:11:1

Pot Odds Pot odds – Can I play my hand profitably? Calculation Pot before opponents bet: \$100 Opponents bet: \$20 Possible profit for you: \$120 If you invest \$20 Pot odds: 120 : 20 (6 : 1) Odds on turn: 5:1 Here: Call! Pot odds better than odds of incomplete hand – profit Pot odds worse than odds of incomplete hand – loss Special characteristic of tournament – buying more chips not possible

Playing draws in the early stage of the tournament Number of opponents The more opponents, the more defensive Position Out of position defensive play preferred Strategy for the turn Fold equity Especially in very early stage and rarely present with low buy-ins Pot size Smaller in early stage of tournament- not worth showing aggression

Playing draws in the early stage of the tournament Your Odds Correct Odds – Calling bet possible Pay attention to stack size Your Outs The more outs, the better the opportunity to call Tip Dont take too big a risk Bet on free cards

Playing draws in the middle stage of the tournament Number of opponents The more opponents, the more chips in pot - increase aggression Fold equity Decisive relevance of fold equity Observe action before you Pot size Pot size often leads to folding or all-In Your Outs The more outs, the more aggressive the style of play Tip Increase aggression depending on pot size Reads on opponents Better estimation of fold equity

Playing draws in the late stage of the tournament Fold equity Smaller stacks – less fold equity Pot size Size usually sufficient for a direct all-in Your Outs The more outs, the greater the opportunity to go all-In Tip Hardly any fold equity present Stack size and opponents style of play decisive Your Odds Little relevance, as usually in push/fold mode Correct odds are rarely present Who has taken the initiative? Initiative + strong draw = all-In No initiative + opponents all-in – stronger draw needed

Sample Hands OESD in the early stage of the tournament Flop (Pot 80) Hero checks BB checks UTG bets 60 MP2 calls 60 Hero calls 60 Preflop UTG calls 20, 2 folds, MP2 calls 20, 3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks Stack size BU1500 Hero 1500 BB1500 UTG1500 UTG+11500 MP 11500 MP 21500 MP 31500 CO1500

Sample Hands Flush draw in the early stage of the tournament Flop (Pot 195) BB checks Hero bets 120 BB raises to 1340 (All-in) Hero folds Preflop 1 fold, Hero raises to 90, 4 folds, BB calls 60 Stack size MP 21740 CO 5705 BU 1340 SB 345 BB 1430 UTG 1470 Hero1470

Sample Hands Monster draw in the middle stage of the tournament Flop (Pot 800) SB checks Hero bets 200 CO raises to 2080 (All-in) Button folds SB folds Hero ? Preflop UTG folds, CO raises to 200, Button calls 200, SB calls 150, Hero calls 100 Stack size UTG 1730 CO 2280 BU 2728 SB 10952 Hero 2310

Sample Hands OESD in the middle stage of the tournament Flop (Pot 600) SB bets 300 Hero raises to 1690 (All-in) Preflop UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls 200, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls 100, Hero checks Stack size UTG 680 UTG+1 2579 MP 1 1739 MP 2 2196 CO 3403 BU 1740 SB 5773 Hero 1890

Sample Hands Flush draw in the late stage of the tournament Flop (Pot 600) SB checks Hero bets 400 Button raises to 800 SB folds Hero? Preflop CO folds, Button calls 200, SB calls 100, Hero checks Stack size CO 2355 BU 5030 SB 3205 Hero 2910

Conclusion Odds Ratio helpful cards : non-helpful cards Pot Odds Ratio possible profit : bet Playing profitably Pot odds better than odds Good Luck! Being aware of the special characteristic of tournaments Buying more chips not possible Protect your chips, keep risk low

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