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© Vattenfall AB Vattenfall Q3 Results 2007 Presentations by Lars G. Josefsson, CEO and Jan Erik Back, CFO 31 October 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "© Vattenfall AB Vattenfall Q3 Results 2007 Presentations by Lars G. Josefsson, CEO and Jan Erik Back, CFO 31 October 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 © Vattenfall AB Vattenfall Q3 Results 2007 Presentations by Lars G. Josefsson, CEO and Jan Erik Back, CFO 31 October 2007

2 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 2 Highlights – 9M results 2007 Net sales rose 9.3% to SEK 105,310 million (96,374) EBIT decreased 2.8% to SEK 21,225 million (21,827) Profit after tax increased 28.4% to SEK 17,010 million (13,249) due to reduction of German corporate income tax Net debt decreased by SEK 4,883 million to SEK 44,524 million compared with 31 December 2006

3 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 3 Highlights – Q3 results 2007 Net sales rose 12.9% to SEK 31,589 million (27,990) EBIT increased 37.9% to SEK 4,557 million (3,304) Profit after tax increased 88.3% to SEK 3,523 million (1,871) due to reduction of German corporate income tax

4 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 4 Highlights – Q3 results 2007 Net debt decreased by SEK 2,241 million to SEK 44,524 million vs 30 June 2007 Return on Net Assets was 15.7% LTM (FY 2006: 16.6%) Return on Equity was 20.5% LTM (FY 2006: 19.1%) Net Gearing was 37% as of 30 Sept 2007 vs 46% as of 31 December 2006 LTM = Last twelve months

5 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 5 EBIT development Quarterly figures, SEK million Quarterly figures in SEK million, excluding items affecting comparability Last 12 months figures in SEK million, excluding items affecting comparability HEW consolidated Bewag consolidated GZE consolidated Danish assets consolidated

6 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 6 Increased fossil and hydro power generation 41 % Heat: Q3 2007 total: 3.8 TWh Heat Q3 2006 total: 3.0 TWh Electricity: Q3 2006 total: 34.5 TWh Electricity: Q3 2007 total: 37.3 TWh Other=wind, biofuel, waste

7 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 7 Electricity spot price development As of 26 Oct

8 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 8 Nordic hydrological balance Source: Markedskraft and Nord Pool

9 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 9 Increasing electricity forward prices

10 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 10 Oil, coal, gas and CO 2 allowances

11 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 11 EUR/tonne CO 2 allowances

12 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 12 Nuclear update – post outages on 28 June Damage at German nuclear plant Krümmel has been repaired, some work is still under way (e.g. installation of new transformer). However, following the events, deviant installations of some anchors were detected at Brunsbüttel and Krümmel. The evaluation of the findings is still in progress. Both plants will remain disconnected from the grid until all replacement work is finished, all questions are clarified and all relevant measures are taken. Q3 financial impact totals approximately EUR 60 million (SEK 555 million) Krümmel (1,346 MW) Brunsbüttel (771 MW)

13 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 13 Increased retail customer churn in Germany Some 200,000 customers lost in Germany primarily due to: –mounting competition in the retail market and customers being increasingly inclined to switch electricity suppliers –Vattenfalls notice of price increases as of 1 July, which resulted in very negative customer reactions –Inadequate information to the general public following the nuclear outages Losses should be viewed against the background of very high market shares (>80%, corresponding to nearly 2.9 million customers) in Berlin and Hamburg Measures taken: Improved product offers –launched a very competitively priced internet product –expanded marketing activities throughout Germany, i.e. to areas outside our core German markets in Berlin and Hamburg Launched a large-scale dialogue, inviting all customers as well as the general public to put questions to Vattenfall Establishment of a customer advisory council

14 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 14 We are growing our market shares in Sweden We have now exceeded one (1) million customers in the Nordic countries Our Swedish retail customer market share has grown from 13% to 15%. Customer satisfaction index has improved Vattenfalls products are considered best in the market

15 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 15 Major ongoing investment projects Lillgrund – the worlds 3 rd largest offshore wind power farm soon to be fully operationable (48 windmills, 110 MW) Schwarze Pumpe – the worlds first CCS oxyfuel pilot plant, to be commissioned in August 2008. Agreement on CO2 storage is now in place. Boxberg – 675 MW lignite power plant under construction Moorburg – 1,640 MW CHP plant still pending final approval from the City of Hamburg Reopening of the Reichwalde lignite mine in Germany Extensive transmission grid investments in Germany Several renewable energy projects in Germany and Sweden

16 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 16 EUs 3 rd Energy package launched 19 September This offers a unique opportunity to further improve the markets function and to speed up market development through integration of national markets into regional markets and finally the Internal Market for Energy We believe that an integrated energy market is a prerequisite for the competitiveness of Europe We believe having Regional System Operators (RIO) is the best way to achieve integration We are positive to creating an Agency for Cooperation of National Energy Regulators We support the proposed new Network for Transmission System Operators (ENTSO) We believe, however, that additional measures are needed to reach the target Vattenfalls response:

17 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 17 Vision and growth strategy remains firm Vattenfalls vision is to be a leading European energy company Within our growth ambition we will –Continue to be an integrated company and focus on generation of electricity and heat –Expand in core and geographically close markets where value can be created –Use both M&A and greenfield investments as tools for growth More focus on renewables, CCS, nuclear and CHP Increased focus on our benchmark ambition and operational performance

18 © Vattenfall AB Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO

19 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 19 Amounts in MSEK Q3 2007 Q3 2006 Change FY2006LTM IFRSIFRS% Consolidated income statement * IAC = items affecting comparability Net sales31,58927,99012.9135,802144,738 Cost of products sold24,33521,95610.896,844105,575 Gross profit7,2546,03420.238,95839,163 Operating profit (EBIT)4,5573,30437.927,04926,447 Operating profit, excl. IAC*4,5423.28638.226,67626,373 Financial income 472841-43.93,8393,623 Financial expenses -1,515-1,18428.0-5,363-5,758 Financial net-1.043-343-204.1-1,524-2,135 Profit before taxes 3,5142,96118.725,52524,312 Taxes9-1,090-5,667-693 Profit for the period 3,523 1,87188.319,85823,619

20 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 20 Cash flow development MSEK

21 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 21 Return on equity 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 Rolling 4-quarter IFRS excl IAC Rolling 4-quarter Sw GAAP excl IAC Average 4-years (16 quarter) Sw. GAAP. IFRS from Q4 2004. Excl. IAC Requirement 15%

22 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 22 Financial targets and outcome Q3 2007 Single A category rating Credit Rating 3.5 – 4.5 times Cash flow interest coverage after maintenance investments 11 % before tax (= 15 % RoE recalculated into the Groups RoNA requirement) Return on Net Assets (RoNA, excl. IAC) Return on Equity (RoE) Targets Key Ratio 15 % on average equity 20.5% 1 15.7%* 7.0* A2/A- Stable outlook 1) Q3 2007 figure = LTM 40-60 % Dividend pay-out 40 % 2 2) Paid in May 2007

23 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 23 EBIT Q3 2007 vs Q3 2006 3 304 4 557 942 619 356 60 648 540 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 Q3 2006PriceVolumeO&MSales and admin Write-downsOtherQ3 2007 Millions of SEK

24 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 24 EBIT 9M 2007 vs 9M 2006

25 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 25 EBIT Q3 2007 vs Q3 2006 – secondary segments VTS= Vattenfall Trading Services

26 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 26 EBIT 9M 2007 vs 9M 2006 – secondary segments 21 827 21 225 2 651 1 383 1 279 457 134 -1 214 756 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 22 000 24 000 26 000 Q1-Q3 2006GenerationHeatNetworksMarketsOtherQ1-Q3 2007 Millions of SEK Sales VTS VTS= Vattenfall Trading Services

27 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 27 Hedging position as of 30 September 2007 % hedged of planned electricity generation (percentage values are rounded)

28 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 28 Highlights Q3 2007 - Nordic EBIT almost flat compared with Q3 2006 Sharp decline in Nordic spot prices mitigated by hedging. Higher electricity generation due to increased hydro and nuclear power. Lower results in Distribution due to a provision of approx. SEK 100 million for restructuring measures. Lower results in Heat due to an impairment loss of SEK 195 million of a CHP plant in Finland. The Lillgrund windpower farm has started to generate electricity. When fully operational it will be the largest windpower farm in Sweden and the third largest offshore farm in the world.

29 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 29 Key data – BG Nordic

30 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 30 Highlights Q3 2007 - Germany Significantly higher EBIT, + SEK1,279 million to SEK 3,173 million (+67,5%). (+ 71.2% excl. IAC). Main part of EBIT improvement pertains to an impairment loss of SEK 931 million in Q3 2006 in business unit Distribution. Mining & Generation increased its result despite unplanned nuclear outages thanks to higher fossil power and successful hedging. NAP2 - Total national emissions cut to 453 million tonnes per year (NAP1 was 499 million tonnes). Vattenfall estimates a yearly deficit of approx. 28-33 million tonnes. Estimated cost (after tax) totals EUR 400-500 million Continued pressure from the Regulator (BNetzA) on transmission tariffs Lowered German corporate income tax by approx. 10 percentage points. The impact on profit after tax is 950 MSEK for Q3 and 2,850 for 9M 2007

31 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 31 Key data – BG Germany

32 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 32 Highlights Q3 2007 - Poland EBIT decreased by 37% from SEK 125 million to SEK 79 million (-50.4% excl IAC). EBIT reduction pertains mainly to Distribution due lower volumes and squeezed margins. Business unit Heat reports a marginally lower operating profit. Business unit Sales reports a slightly better result.

33 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 33 Key data – BG Poland

34 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 34 Amounts in MSEK 30/9/07 30/9/06 Change 31/12/06 IFRSIFRS% Consolidated balance sheet Non-current assets257,489266,242-3.3251,893 Current assets67,12761,5439.171,273 Total assets324,616327,785-1.0323,166 Equity119,67994,11827.2107,674 Interest-bearing liabilitites66,34172,222-8.171,575 Interest-bearing provisions52,28048,4128.049,217 Pension provisions 17,42417,3450.516,877 Deferred tax liabilities25,40340,104-36.729,875 Other non-interest- bearing liabilitites 43,48955,584-21.847,948 Total equity and liabilities 324,616 327,785-1.0323,166

35 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 35 Net debt development SEK million Capital Securities SEK 9.1 billion Acquisition of Elsam shares Acquisition of Bewag and GZE shares Dividend paid

36 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 36 Questions & Answers

37 © Vattenfall AB Backup slides

38 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 38 Amounts in MSEK 9M 2007 9M 2006 Change IFRSIFRS% Consolidated income statement * IAC = items affecting comparability Net sales105,31096,3749.3 Cost of products sold75,91167,18013.0 Gross profit29,39929,1940.7 Operating profit (EBIT)21,22521,827-2.8 Operating profit, excl. IAC*21,11521,418-1.4 Financial income 2,103 2,319-9.3 Financial expenses -4,095-3,70010.7 Financial net-1,992-1,381-44.2 Profit before taxes 19,23320,446-5.9 Taxes-2,223-7,197-69.1 Profit for the period 17,010 13,24928.4

39 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 39 Amounts in MSEK Q3 2007 Q3 2006 Change FY 2006LTM IFRSIFRS% Funds from operations (FFO) 6,0025,6256.735,67332,667 Change in working capital2611,769-85.2-4661,290 Cash Flow from operating activities6,2637,394-15.335,20733,957 Investments-4,310-4,749-9.2-16,534-18,327 Divestments239289-17.31,720935 Cash and cash equivalents in aquired/divested companies239-94.9-68610 Cash Flow from investing activities -4,069-5,107-20.3-15,647-17,382 Cash Flow before financing activities 2,1942,287-4.119,56016,575 Cash Flow from financing activities-8,259-634-10,742-18,870 Cash Flow for the period-6,0651,6538,818-2,295 Net debt at the end of the period-44,524-55,380-19.6-49,407-44,524 Consolidated cash flow statement

40 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 40 Key ratios Key Ratios (% unless otherwise stated) Q3 2007Q3 2006LTM RoNA (1) 15.715.7 RoE (1) 20.520.5 Operating margin 14.411.818.3 Pre-tax profit margin 11.110.616.8 Cash Flow interest coverage after maintenance investments, times 4.76.97.0 FFO/net debt (1) 69.069.0 Equity/assets ratio36.928.736.9 Net Gearing - Net debt/equity, times 0.370.590.37 Capitalisation - Net debt/net debt + equity 27.137.027.1 1) Q3 2007 value = LTM

41 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 41 Net asset development MSEK Acquisition of Elsam shares Acquisition of Bewag and GZE shares Consolidation of Danish assets

42 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 42 Amounts in SEK million As of Sep 30, 2007 TreasuryGermanyPolandNordicTotal% Cash and bank9681,0344675943,06314 Interest-bearing investments4,6835,4196331610,48148 Special Funds2,5782,57812 Brunsbüttel5,3355,67326 Shares2222 Total5,65114,38953190921,480100 Undrawn committed credit facilities amount to 9,577 SEK million and other undrawn credit- and overdraft facilities amount to 10,859 SEK million. Break down of group liquidity

43 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 43 Amounts in SEK million As of Sep 30, 2007 TreasuryGermanyPolandNordicTotal% Subordinated perpetual Capital Securities 9,0829,08214 MTN8398391 EMTN30,52630,52646 Liabilities to assoc. companies6,9094,26111,17017 Liabilities to minority shareholders495,1325,1818 Bank loans and others5596,4331422,4109,54414 Total47,91510,7431427,54266,341100 Break down of group debt

44 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 44 Vattenfall debt maturity profile Sep 30, 2007 Sep 30, 2006 Duration (years) 3,7 1) 3,7 Average time to maturity (years) 6,5 1) 6,1 Net debt (SEK bn) 44,5 55,4 SEK million Excluding loans from associated companies and minority owners 1) Based on external debt. Excluding Capital Securities the duration is 3,1 years and average time to maturity 6,3 years.

45 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 45 Adjusted Gross & Net debt

46 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 46 Development of adjusted net debt

47 © Vattenfall AB 31 Oct 2007 47 Group provisions down by 10.2% 30 Sept 2007 SEK 95,107 million 30 Sept 2006 SEK 105,861 million


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