1. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 AUTHOR Michael Lee, BE, MITE Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd, Melbourne, AustraliaMichael Lee, BE, MITE Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Australia Emails: 1. Michael@obrientraffic.com (office) 2. Mlee777@bigpond.com (private)Emails: 1. Michael@obrientraffic.com (office) 2. Mlee777@bigpond.com (private) Telephone: 61 4 1329 5325Telephone: 61 4 1329 5325

2. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 ABSTRACT Picture of current modelling practicesPicture of current modelling practices Differences between the two pakagesDifferences between the two pakages Comparison of inputs and outputsComparison of inputs and outputs Projects where EMME/2 and PARAMICS are usedProjects where EMME/2 and PARAMICS are used Sample outputsSample outputs

3. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 INTRODUCTION 1 Unprecedented market penetrationUnprecedented market penetration Has NOT displaced 4-step modellingHas NOT displaced 4-step modelling Niche role - between macro/meso models and analytical (intersection level) modelsNiche role - between macro/meso models and analytical (intersection level) models Picture = 1,000 wordsPicture = 1,000 words Movie = 1,000 picturesMovie = 1,000 pictures Paramics output = Series of MoviesParamics output = Series of Movies Glimpse of virtual realityGlimpse of virtual reality

4. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 INTRO 2 - HAS IT DELIVERED? Hundreds of Thousands $$$ Annually Town Centre Strategy StudiesTown Centre Strategy Studies OperationsOperations – Interaction of controls along a route (Intersection Signals, Pedestrian Signals, Roundabout, Signal Coordination) – Loop activated controls – Lane restrictions for different classes, e.g. HOV, bus, tram, Freeway Management StudiesFreeway Management Studies – Ramp Metering, Weaving Analyses

5. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 PROJECTS - 1 Between 1995 and 98, mainly EMME/2 (or TRIPS) + SIDRA (Intersection Analysis Package)Between 1995 and 98, mainly EMME/2 (or TRIPS) + SIDRA (Intersection Analysis Package) Since 1999, clients are increasingly asking for EMME/2 (or TRIPS) + PARAMICSSince 1999, clients are increasingly asking for EMME/2 (or TRIPS) + PARAMICS See Table 1 of paper for detailsSee Table 1 of paper for details

6. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 PROJECTS - 2 Recent Projects Involving Microsimulation & EMME/2 (or TRIPS) Melbourne CBD (Stage 1), approx A$150k (2003)Melbourne CBD (Stage 1), approx A$150k (2003) Ringwood Town Centre, A$200k (2001)Ringwood Town Centre, A$200k (2001) Frankston Town Centre, A$300k (2003/04)Frankston Town Centre, A$300k (2003/04) Dandenong Town Centre, A$300k (2003/04)Dandenong Town Centre, A$300k (2003/04) Sydney CBD, A$500k - A$700k (2001-2002)Sydney CBD, A$500k - A$700k (2001-2002) Sydney Cross-City Tunnel (Around 1999-2000)Sydney Cross-City Tunnel (Around 1999-2000) Lane Cove Toll Road (Around 1999-2000)Lane Cove Toll Road (Around 1999-2000) Gungahlin Drive (freeway) Extension, near CanberraGungahlin Drive (freeway) Extension, near Canberra

7. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 DIFFERENCES 1 PARAMICS - One Step (Traffic Assignment) onlyPARAMICS - One Step (Traffic Assignment) only EMME/2 - Up to Four StepsEMME/2 - Up to Four Steps PARAMICS Assignment - all or nothing, equilibrium (dynamic feedback), stochastic or a combination of stochastic and equilibriumPARAMICS Assignment - all or nothing, equilibrium (dynamic feedback), stochastic or a combination of stochastic and equilibrium Weak Equilibrium Assignment in PARAMICSWeak Equilibrium Assignment in PARAMICS Problem with unrealistic cost fluctuationsProblem with unrealistic cost fluctuations Can cause network blockagesCan cause network blockages

8. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 DIFFERENCES 2 Traffic Assignment EMME/2 - Assignment is iterative with a convergence or maximum number of iteration criteria - Costs are updated at the end of each iterationEMME/2 - Assignment is iterative with a convergence or maximum number of iteration criteria - Costs are updated at the end of each iteration PARAMICS - One iteration, but results are dynamic over the simulation period - For equilibrium assignment, costs are updated at pre- set intervals. Routes with similar costs will alternately congest and free up, which could result in modeling related operational problems. Use of stochastic assignment is preferred.PARAMICS - One iteration, but results are dynamic over the simulation period - For equilibrium assignment, costs are updated at pre- set intervals. Routes with similar costs will alternately congest and free up, which could result in modeling related operational problems. Use of stochastic assignment is preferred.

9. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 DIFFERENCES 3 A Case of Friction Factors Affecting Traffic Assignment PARAMICS - Vehicle following, gap acceptance and lane changing criteria. The parameters and controls available to the modeller are described in the following slides.PARAMICS - Vehicle following, gap acceptance and lane changing criteria. The parameters and controls available to the modeller are described in the following slides. EMME/2 - Lane capacity (typically 1,900 but can vary up to 2,500), Shape of volume delay curve (flat followed by a sharp drop for freeways, gently dropping for roads with stops and starts), Number of lanes on the link.EMME/2 - Lane capacity (typically 1,900 but can vary up to 2,500), Shape of volume delay curve (flat followed by a sharp drop for freeways, gently dropping for roads with stops and starts), Number of lanes on the link.

10. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 PARAMICS Variables 1a Global Target Headway - Not equal to the mean measured headway in seconds - Can be set globally or on a link-by-link basis - Smaller headway settings will result in saturation capacity higher than 1,900 vehicles per lane - Default of 1.0 (range btwn 0.2 and 2.0)Target Headway - Not equal to the mean measured headway in seconds - Can be set globally or on a link-by-link basis - Smaller headway settings will result in saturation capacity higher than 1,900 vehicles per lane - Default of 1.0 (range btwn 0.2 and 2.0) Target Reaction Time - Of each driver in seconds - Can be set globally only - Associated with the lag in time between a change of speed of the preceding vehicle and the following vehicles reaction to the change - Smaller settings increase saturation capacity - Default of 1.0 (range btwn 0.2 and 2.0)Target Reaction Time - Of each driver in seconds - Can be set globally only - Associated with the lag in time between a change of speed of the preceding vehicle and the following vehicles reaction to the change - Smaller settings increase saturation capacity - Default of 1.0 (range btwn 0.2 and 2.0)

11. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 PARAMICS Variables 1b Typical Headway and Reaction Time Figures 1.0, 1.0 Paramics default (Works well for Australian conditions - arterial roads and freeways)1.0, 1.0 Paramics default (Works well for Australian conditions - arterial roads and freeways) 0.6, 0.4 Used by a consultant for modelling Los Angeles freeways (Not suitable for Australian freeways)0.6, 0.4 Used by a consultant for modelling Los Angeles freeways (Not suitable for Australian freeways) 0.3, 0.2 Used by a consultant for modelling downtown traffic in Manhattan0.3, 0.2 Used by a consultant for modelling downtown traffic in Manhattan

12. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 PARAMICS Variables 2 Global Impacts Vehicle characteristics. A vehicle population can comprise several types of cars, trucks, buses and trams. For each type of vehicle, physical attributes such as dimensions, weight, acceleration rate, deceleration rate and top speed can be specified.Vehicle characteristics. A vehicle population can comprise several types of cars, trucks, buses and trams. For each type of vehicle, physical attributes such as dimensions, weight, acceleration rate, deceleration rate and top speed can be specified. Familiarity of drivers. Specified as a proportion of the vehicle population. Affects routing for stochastic assignments.Familiarity of drivers. Specified as a proportion of the vehicle population. Affects routing for stochastic assignments. Distribution of aggression (all drivers) and awareness (familiar drivers) in the vehicle population.Distribution of aggression (all drivers) and awareness (familiar drivers) in the vehicle population. Seed value. Varying the seed would vary slightly the rate of traffic generation at a given point in time - mimicking the daily variances.Seed value. Varying the seed would vary slightly the rate of traffic generation at a given point in time - mimicking the daily variances.

13. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 PARAMICS Variables 3 Links Nextlanes - overrides the default lane mapping at specific nodes. E.g. restricting entry into downstream lanes 1 and 2 from upstream lanes 1,2 and 3 on the approach to a ramp instead of lanes 1 and 2 only.Nextlanes - overrides the default lane mapping at specific nodes. E.g. restricting entry into downstream lanes 1 and 2 from upstream lanes 1,2 and 3 on the approach to a ramp instead of lanes 1 and 2 only. Urban or Highway links. With highway links, vehicles overtake only on the fast (ie centre) lane. With urban links, vehicles can overtake on the slow or fast lanes.Urban or Highway links. With highway links, vehicles overtake only on the fast (ie centre) lane. With urban links, vehicles can overtake on the slow or fast lanes. Link speed limit, Link cost factor (affects routing), Link gradient (heavy vehicles are affected more than light vehicles).Link speed limit, Link cost factor (affects routing), Link gradient (heavy vehicles are affected more than light vehicles). Stay in Lane - restricts lane changes (solid line)Stay in Lane - restricts lane changes (solid line)

14. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 PARAMICS Variables 4 Links Vehicle class restrictions on specific lanes.Vehicle class restrictions on specific lanes. Location of control points (known as stop-lines) for exiting one lane and entering the next.Location of control points (known as stop-lines) for exiting one lane and entering the next. Signposting distance from Hazard - Hazards are changes of conditions such as a turn, road narrowing or an intersection ahead. Upon sighting a hazard, the driver will see whether a lane change is required. If so, the vehicle will attempt to change lanes. If not, the vehicle will carry on until a gap is available.Signposting distance from Hazard - Hazards are changes of conditions such as a turn, road narrowing or an intersection ahead. Upon sighting a hazard, the driver will see whether a lane change is required. If so, the vehicle will attempt to change lanes. If not, the vehicle will carry on until a gap is available. Signrange - Distance driver becomes aware of the hazard.Signrange - Distance driver becomes aware of the hazard. NOTE: Signposting and signrange are used together.NOTE: Signposting and signrange are used together.

15. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 PARAMICS Variables 5 - Intersections Lane allocation at intersections. Extension of nextlanes function for mapping turning lanes.Lane allocation at intersections. Extension of nextlanes function for mapping turning lanes. Lane choices - provides a two-link look-ahead, to minimise erroneous lane choices. Works well in theory!Lane choices - provides a two-link look-ahead, to minimise erroneous lane choices. Works well in theory! Reroute stuck vehicles - specifically for vehicles at the holding line of intersections that have been trapped in the wrong lane.Reroute stuck vehicles - specifically for vehicles at the holding line of intersections that have been trapped in the wrong lane. Shared lanes - allows vehicles to share lanes in order to avoid lane blocking due to queuing in the incorrect lane.Shared lanes - allows vehicles to share lanes in order to avoid lane blocking due to queuing in the incorrect lane.

16. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 PARAMICS Variables 6 Intersections Make Stacking - brings the holding position forward into the intersection. Improves capacity of filter turns.Make Stacking - brings the holding position forward into the intersection. Improves capacity of filter turns. Visibility distance for traffic approaching from a minor road. If visibility is good, vehicles will slow down, but not necessarily stop.Visibility distance for traffic approaching from a minor road. If visibility is good, vehicles will slow down, but not necessarily stop. Sufficient capacity for turns (particularly left-turns in the US/Europe and right-turns in Australia/UK)Sufficient capacity for turns (particularly left-turns in the US/Europe and right-turns in Australia/UK) Correct values in the matrix!!! Often the problem with turn lanes overflowing is due to incorrect values.Correct values in the matrix!!! Often the problem with turn lanes overflowing is due to incorrect values.

17. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 PARAMICS Variables 7 Signals Green, amber and red times of each movement.Green, amber and red times of each movement. Characteristics of green band for coordinated signals - depends on the defined signal offsets and the green times of each signal for the coordinated direction.Characteristics of green band for coordinated signals - depends on the defined signal offsets and the green times of each signal for the coordinated direction. Loop activated phases (can be triggered by occupancy or queue length criteria). E.g. tram activated phases, pedestrian activated phases, level crossing phases, minor street intersections.Loop activated phases (can be triggered by occupancy or queue length criteria). E.g. tram activated phases, pedestrian activated phases, level crossing phases, minor street intersections.

18. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS PARAMICS Inputs Incremental trip matrix loading, with in-built randomness set by the chosen seed.Incremental trip matrix loading, with in-built randomness set by the chosen seed. Demand profile can be flat (even) or variable over time.Demand profile can be flat (even) or variable over time. PARAMICS Outputs Lane by lane traffic movements.Lane by lane traffic movements. Location of traffic hotspots.Location of traffic hotspots. Visual representation of traffic.Visual representation of traffic. Travel time (link).Travel time (link).

19. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD

20. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD SCOPE 1 Clients: Department of Infrastructure (think state planning authority), VicRoads (think state road agency).Clients: Department of Infrastructure (think state planning authority), VicRoads (think state road agency). Being the CBD, one would think that Melbourne City Council would be leading proponent!! But not really!Being the CBD, one would think that Melbourne City Council would be leading proponent!! But not really! What are they looking for? 1. Optimisation of operations for all traffic classes (cars, trucks, trams, pedestrians) Hmmm….something has to give! May God bless all road users :) 2. Microsimulation model that draws from strategic (4-step) model and ultimately feeds back to that model….we know that is NOT possible in the literal sense.What are they looking for? 1. Optimisation of operations for all traffic classes (cars, trucks, trams, pedestrians) Hmmm….something has to give! May God bless all road users :) 2. Microsimulation model that draws from strategic (4-step) model and ultimately feeds back to that model….we know that is NOT possible in the literal sense.

21. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD SCOPE 2 What are they looking for? 3. Impact of future land use changes and infrastructure changes in the broader Metropolitan area on movements at key entry streets into the CBD - hence the need for EMME/2. 4. Impact of new parking stations within the CBD. 5. Impact of new Docklands apartments (next 5-10 years) along the western periphery of the CBD.What are they looking for? 3. Impact of future land use changes and infrastructure changes in the broader Metropolitan area on movements at key entry streets into the CBD - hence the need for EMME/2. 4. Impact of new parking stations within the CBD. 5. Impact of new Docklands apartments (next 5-10 years) along the western periphery of the CBD. 6. 2011 and beyond traffic projections. We think that is B### S### for the CBD area as traffic during the peak hours is already at saturation.6. 2011 and beyond traffic projections. We think that is B### S### for the CBD area as traffic during the peak hours is already at saturation.

22. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD SCOPE 3 What are they looking for? 7. A model that matches reality….Ha! Ha! Ha! There are some people out there who believe we have tools that can model the movement of individuals, right from the time they leave their door and the exact time they cross a particular junction! These questions/points are often raised by non- transport modelling individuals who have been invited to one of our progress meetings. A question for the sake of asking a question.What are they looking for? 7. A model that matches reality….Ha! Ha! Ha! There are some people out there who believe we have tools that can model the movement of individuals, right from the time they leave their door and the exact time they cross a particular junction! These questions/points are often raised by non- transport modelling individuals who have been invited to one of our progress meetings. A question for the sake of asking a question.

23. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD DATA 1 Vehicle Turning Movements at 5-minute intervals, collected manually. Normally, profiles at 15-minute intervals are sufficient, except when there are specific locations where peak arrival rates (say 5 to 10 minutes) can result in stuff-ups of up to 1/2 hour.Vehicle Turning Movements at 5-minute intervals, collected manually. Normally, profiles at 15-minute intervals are sufficient, except when there are specific locations where peak arrival rates (say 5 to 10 minutes) can result in stuff-ups of up to 1/2 hour. Traffic data collected at over 30 junctions. Data includes turning volumes, signal data (phase times, coordination off-sets, transit or movement related phase changes). Some data were historical, others were collected either for the full modelling hour or as spot observations and factored up accordingly.Traffic data collected at over 30 junctions. Data includes turning volumes, signal data (phase times, coordination off-sets, transit or movement related phase changes). Some data were historical, others were collected either for the full modelling hour or as spot observations and factored up accordingly. AM peak hour, PM peak hour and a Lunchtime peak hour.AM peak hour, PM peak hour and a Lunchtime peak hour.

24. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD DATA 2 Video of key intersections for verification. Also used as a defence tool when grilled at meetings.Video of key intersections for verification. Also used as a defence tool when grilled at meetings. Inventory of off-street and on-street parking supply - provided by Council, and spot-verified.Inventory of off-street and on-street parking supply - provided by Council, and spot-verified. Spot assessment of peak arrivals and departures at larger/reasonably significant parking stations.Spot assessment of peak arrivals and departures at larger/reasonably significant parking stations. Spot lane utilisation information at a number of locations.Spot lane utilisation information at a number of locations. Tube counts.Tube counts. Signal phasing plans.Signal phasing plans.

25. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD STRAGEGIC MODELLING PURPOSE To produce sub area trip tables (1st cut) to assist in the seeding of the Paramics trip tables (2nd cut).To produce sub area trip tables (1st cut) to assist in the seeding of the Paramics trip tables (2nd cut). To produce future trip tables.To produce future trip tables.

26. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD METHODOLOGY of Sub-area Trip Table(s) Creation 2 Tiers of sub-area trip tables2 Tiers of sub-area trip tables 1st tier - Strategic Melbourne CBD 2nd tier - Microsimulation area1st tier - Strategic Melbourne CBD 2nd tier - Microsimulation area

27. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD

28. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD 1st Tier Sub-Area 1 Uses a calibrated 2001 strategic (EMME/2) network and a 2001 AM trip table from the Melbourne Integrated Transport Model as a base.Uses a calibrated 2001 strategic (EMME/2) network and a 2001 AM trip table from the Melbourne Integrated Transport Model as a base. Within the cordon of the 1st tier sub-area, the strategic network is expanded to include additional zones (parking station level) and little streets (for access purposes).Within the cordon of the 1st tier sub-area, the strategic network is expanded to include additional zones (parking station level) and little streets (for access purposes). Where possible, the zones are disaggregated to match Councils database (based on city blocks).Where possible, the zones are disaggregated to match Councils database (based on city blocks). The cordon of the 1st tier sub-area model encompasses the 2nd tier sub-area model and a band of land surround it.The cordon of the 1st tier sub-area model encompasses the 2nd tier sub-area model and a band of land surround it.

29. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD 1st Tier Sub-Area 2 Trip ends for the 1st Tier Sub-area Model would NOT match the trip ends obtained by applying generation rates to the parking numbers in each zone OR to traffic counts on the sub-area boundary.Trip ends for the 1st Tier Sub-area Model would NOT match the trip ends obtained by applying generation rates to the parking numbers in each zone OR to traffic counts on the sub-area boundary. Note: The parking trip-ends are determined using empirical formulae for the three peak periods. The calculation involves applying factors to short-term on- street parking supply and both short and long term off- street parking supply. See Table 3 of the paper. For example, AM in-bound = 0.4ON + 0.2ST_OFF + 0.5LT_OFF + 0.3LT_PRIVATE, where ON = on-street parking, ST_OFF = short-term off- street parking, LT_OFF = long-term…, etcNote: The parking trip-ends are determined using empirical formulae for the three peak periods. The calculation involves applying factors to short-term on- street parking supply and both short and long term off- street parking supply. See Table 3 of the paper. For example, AM in-bound = 0.4ON + 0.2ST_OFF + 0.5LT_OFF + 0.3LT_PRIVATE, where ON = on-street parking, ST_OFF = short-term off- street parking, LT_OFF = long-term…, etc

30. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD 2nd Tier Sub-Area 1 A 1st cut refinement is attained by Frataring the parking station and external trip end volumes (of the 1st cut sub area network).A 1st cut refinement is attained by Frataring the parking station and external trip end volumes (of the 1st cut sub area network). At this point, the turning volumes would NOT be correct.At this point, the turning volumes would NOT be correct. Next, the 1st cut refined trip table is assigned onto the 1st tier sub area network.Next, the 1st cut refined trip table is assigned onto the 1st tier sub area network. The model is repeatedly run with different turn penalty combinations until a reasonable match is achieved at the intersections.The model is repeatedly run with different turn penalty combinations until a reasonable match is achieved at the intersections.

31. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD 2nd Tier Sub-Area 2 The final step is to cut a new sub-area of the 1st tier sub-area model which will match the level of detail (links, nodes, location of centroids and their connectors) as the PARAMICS microsimulation model.The final step is to cut a new sub-area of the 1st tier sub-area model which will match the level of detail (links, nodes, location of centroids and their connectors) as the PARAMICS microsimulation model. A new trip-table is extracted from it. This trip-table is used as a starting matrix for the PARAMICS model.A new trip-table is extracted from it. This trip-table is used as a starting matrix for the PARAMICS model.

32. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD Modelling Issues Use stochastic assignment with limited dynamic feedback (or limited equilibrium assignment in EMME/2 terms) to minimise route-choice fluctuations.Use stochastic assignment with limited dynamic feedback (or limited equilibrium assignment in EMME/2 terms) to minimise route-choice fluctuations. Spending lots of time fiddling to minimise lane blockages - the No.1 source of unrealistic traffic congestion. How? - Refining signposting, nextlanes and lanechoices settings, over-riding the default values at as many a node as required. - Checking turn capacity, which is a function of turn bay length, green time and stacking) - Checking the route-choice characteristics. Is the set perturbation OK? Is the link or turn penalty OK? - Where necessary, create a separate physical link for the right-turn bay.Spending lots of time fiddling to minimise lane blockages - the No.1 source of unrealistic traffic congestion. How? - Refining signposting, nextlanes and lanechoices settings, over-riding the default values at as many a node as required. - Checking turn capacity, which is a function of turn bay length, green time and stacking) - Checking the route-choice characteristics. Is the set perturbation OK? Is the link or turn penalty OK? - Where necessary, create a separate physical link for the right-turn bay.

33. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd MELBOURNE CBD

34. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd CONCLUSIONS Microsimulation: Has NOT displaced 4-step modelling.Has NOT displaced 4-step modelling. Has positioned itself as a SYMBIOTIC PARASITE to EMME/2, TRIPS, etc.Has positioned itself as a SYMBIOTIC PARASITE to EMME/2, TRIPS, etc. May have reduced market share of 4-step modelling (authors opinion).May have reduced market share of 4-step modelling (authors opinion).

35. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author is grateful for: Project materials sourced from Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd, Ashton Traffic Consulting Pty Ltd and Eppell Olsen Pty Ltd.Project materials sourced from Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd, Ashton Traffic Consulting Pty Ltd and Eppell Olsen Pty Ltd. Software information sourced from Quadstone Ltd.Software information sourced from Quadstone Ltd.

36. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd ADDITIONAL PROJECT Only If Time Permits: Ringwood Traffic Study 2001-02.Ringwood Traffic Study 2001-02.

37. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Primary Study Area Ringwood Central Business District

38. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Major Tasks Data CollectionData Collection Regional Traffic Model Refinement - TRIPSRegional Traffic Model Refinement - TRIPS Micro Model Development - PARAMICSMicro Model Development - PARAMICS Validation against 2001 data and Regional Model ForecastsValidation against 2001 data and Regional Model Forecasts Demand Forecasting 2007Demand Forecasting 2007 Assessment of Road Network Options 2007Assessment of Road Network Options 2007

39. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Data Collection 24-Hour Tube Counts24-Hour Tube Counts Peak Period Travel TimesPeak Period Travel Times Origin-Destination SurveyOrigin-Destination Survey VicRoads SCRAM Traffic DataVicRoads SCRAM Traffic Data Signal Timing (Phasing and Coordination) DataSignal Timing (Phasing and Coordination) Data Full Turning Movements - peak periodsFull Turning Movements - peak periods Partial Turning Movements - peak periodsPartial Turning Movements - peak periods Car-park entrance Partial Turning MovementsCar-park entrance Partial Turning Movements List of Committed and Potential Developments for 2007List of Committed and Potential Developments for 2007

40. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Models Used TRIPS - Regional 24-Hour Model - forecasts the traffic diversion from new road network (Eastern Fwy Extension and the Scoresby Fwy) - the basis for generating the 2001 and 2007 trip matrices for use by PARAMICSTRIPS - Regional 24-Hour Model - forecasts the traffic diversion from new road network (Eastern Fwy Extension and the Scoresby Fwy) - the basis for generating the 2001 and 2007 trip matrices for use by PARAMICS PARAMICS - Detailed Peak Hour Microsimulation Model - provides detailed assessment of traffic controls - level of dynamic representation exceeds the regional models ability to hone in on hot-spotsPARAMICS - Detailed Peak Hour Microsimulation Model - provides detailed assessment of traffic controls - level of dynamic representation exceeds the regional models ability to hone in on hot-spots

41. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Regional Model Traffic Refinement - Top Down Refinement of TRIPS zones and network around Ringwood - from 3 zones in the study area to 35 zones - from collector-street level of detail to parking station entrance level of detailRefinement of TRIPS zones and network around Ringwood - from 3 zones in the study area to 35 zones - from collector-street level of detail to parking station entrance level of detail Peak Hour Trip Matrices derived from 24-Hour Matrices using shape of Origin-Destination Survey, peak hour turning movement counts and daily factors from the tube counts.Peak Hour Trip Matrices derived from 24-Hour Matrices using shape of Origin-Destination Survey, peak hour turning movement counts and daily factors from the tube counts.

42. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Sub-area (Ringwood) Trip Matrix - Bottom Up Peak Hour figures need to match screen-line countsPeak Hour figures need to match screen-line counts Matrix Estimation module in TRIPS was used to adjust the trip-ends to achieve a better match with observed counts of shopping centre traffic generationMatrix Estimation module in TRIPS was used to adjust the trip-ends to achieve a better match with observed counts of shopping centre traffic generation Iterative process involving judicious selection of confidence intervals within the Matrix Estimation module to achieve sensible looking trip matricesIterative process involving judicious selection of confidence intervals within the Matrix Estimation module to achieve sensible looking trip matrices

43. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Modelled Network Options: 1.Existing Conditions (2001) 2.No road network changes (2007) 3.Eastern Freeway to Ringwood Bypass Only (2007) 4. 4.Eastern and Scoresby Freeways to Ringwood (2007), with various configurations of northerly ramps at Maroondah Highway

44. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study 2007 AM AND PM PEAK CONDITIONS Based on 2001 surveys, the total trips in the PM peak hour are some 25% higher than the AM peak Study has shown that in the AM peak all options perform satisfactory. In the PM peak, most options resulted in heavily congested or grid locked conditions The study focused on the PM peak traffic conditions with only Committed Development completed

45. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Figure 1 – Existing Conditions PM Peak (2001)

46. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Figure 2 – No Road Network Changes PM Peak (2007)

47. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Figure 3 – Free Flowing Interchange No Northerly Ramps at Maroondah Highway PM Peak (2007)

48. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study Figure 4 – Free Flowing Interchange Northerly Ramps to Ringwood Bypass Only PM Peak (2007)

49. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Ringwood Traffic Study PARAMICS was useful for assessing: Operation of freeway to freeway/ramp interchanges (grade-separated, roundabout controlled, signal controlled) Likelihood of queue-backs into the Tunnel Town-centre traffic management (2 lane Maroondah Highway) Ability of the current network to handle growth of Eastland Shopping Centre Capacity of turn bays at key intersections

50. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS Paramics Traffic Simulation considered: Drivers (collective) behavioural characteristics of target headways and reaction timesDrivers (collective) behavioural characteristics of target headways and reaction times Vehicle performance characteristics (speed, acceleration, braking, dimension, mass (gradient sensitive))Vehicle performance characteristics (speed, acceleration, braking, dimension, mass (gradient sensitive)) Road network characteristics - link capacity (function of physical and behavioural characteristics) - geometry & configuration (lane width, no of lanes, specification of curvilinear alignment) - intersection control (sign, signal) - traffic signal co-ordination - sign-post for lane-choice decisions - vehicle-class lane restrictionRoad network characteristics - link capacity (function of physical and behavioural characteristics) - geometry & configuration (lane width, no of lanes, specification of curvilinear alignment) - intersection control (sign, signal) - traffic signal co-ordination - sign-post for lane-choice decisions - vehicle-class lane restriction

51. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Paramics Model Specifications Use of a pre-defined seed to allow - repeatability between trip assignment runs - consistency across scenarios Use of default values for Drivers Target Headway (1.0s and Drivers Target Reaction Times (1.0s) on non-freeway roads. Use of closer Target Headways (0.6s) for the freeway to match expected peak-hour throughput

52. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Paramics Calibration Criteria 1 Minimise blockage caused by overflow in the right-turn bays - adjusted the trip-matrices where applicable to reasonably match the length of the turn-bay and the green time at the signals Minimise occurrence of vehicles turning from an adjacent lane where they were not supposed to turn from - hard-wired into the network by coding the right-turn as a separate link

53. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Paramics Calibration Criteria 2 Minimise flow breakdowns on the freeway - varied the target headway parameter from the default - use of long approach links - use of multiple vehicle classes and lane restrictions by class to control lane utilisation Minimise unrealistic lane utilisation over the course of the simulation which can cause premature blockage - varied the signposting distances - judicious use of the nextlanes function

54. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Paramics Calibration Criteria 3 Saturation flow rate - 1.8s to 2.0s departure rate of vehicles at the start of the green phase Assigned traffic being within 10% of the turning movement count and link count Stability of the model over time

55. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Paramics Outputs Visual Moving Vehicles on the Screen - Video Show Build up of traffic hot-spots (queues) Implied Degrees of Saturation measure - If a queue builds up continuously at one location over time, its DOS is taken to be greater than 1 Isolated traffic signal performance Coordinated traffic signal performance Sensitivity of Before and After configurations

56. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Paramics Outputs Numerical Volumes - Intersections and Links Speeds - Links Point-to-point Travel Times - Useful for comparing delays between scenarios Economic Indicators (veh-km and veh-hrs)

57. Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd Paramics Examples Ringwood CBD & Trams Bulla Road Weave Warrigal Road Ramp Meter