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Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano And Modified by Gabriel Martinez 5 C H A P T E R Goods and Financial Markets: The IS-LM Model

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard How are Output and the Interest Rate Jointly Determined in the Short Run? Output and the interest rate are determined by simultaneous equilibrium in the goods and money markets. Output and the interest rate are determined by simultaneous equilibrium in the goods and money markets. –In the short run, we assume that production responds to demand without changes in price (i.e., price is fixed), so output is determined by demand. The determination of output is the fundamental issue in macroeconomics. The determination of output is the fundamental issue in macroeconomics. –The interest rate affects output (through investment) and output affects the interest rate (through money demand), so it is necessary to consider the simultaneous determination of output and the interest rate.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Goods Market and the IS Relation Equilibrium in the goods market exists when production, Y, is equal to the demand for goods, Z. Equilibrium in the goods market exists when production, Y, is equal to the demand for goods, Z. In the simple model developed in chapter 3, the interest rate did not affect the demand for goods. The equilibrium condition was given by: In the simple model developed in chapter 3, the interest rate did not affect the demand for goods. The equilibrium condition was given by: 5-1

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Investment, Sales, and the Interest Rate In this chapter, we capture the effects of two factors affecting investment: In this chapter, we capture the effects of two factors affecting investment: –The level of sales (+) –The interest rate (-)

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Determination of Output Taking into account the investment relation above, the equilibrium condition in the goods market becomes: Taking into account the investment relation above, the equilibrium condition in the goods market becomes: –Notice we dont assume that the relation between C and Y, or between I and Y, has to be linear.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Determination of Output Note: The ZZ line is flatter than the 45° line because the econometric evidence tells us that increases in consumption and investment do not exceed the corresponding increase in output. The demand for goods is an increasing function of output. Equilibrium requires that the demand for goods be equal to output. Equilibrium in the Goods Market

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard

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Deriving the IS Curve An increase in the interest rate decreases the demand for goods at any level of output. By the multiplier effect, output falls. The Effects of an Increase in the Interest Rate on Output

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Deriving the IS Curve In Words: In Words: i rises i rises Investment falls Investment falls The ZZ curve shifts down The ZZ curve shifts down Equilibrium output falls. Equilibrium output falls. In the goods market, there is an inverse relation between i and Y. In the goods market, there is an inverse relation between i and Y.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Deriving the IS Curve Equilibrium in the goods market implies that an increase in the interest rate leads to a decrease in output. The IS curve is downward sloping. The Derivation of the IS Curve

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Shifts of the IS Curve An increase in taxes shifts the IS curve to the left. Shifts of the IS Curve

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Shifts of the IS Curve The IS curve shifts to the right if: The IS curve shifts to the right if: –Taxes fall, –Government spending rises, –Autonomous Investment rises, (that is, I rises for reasons besides i or Y) (that is, I rises for reasons besides i or Y) –Autonomous Consumption rises. It does not shift when i or Y change. It does not shift when i or Y change.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Every point on the IS curve is an equilibrium for the goods market. Income, Y Interest, i Y Z ZZ, Medium Interest Rate Y Z ZZ, Low Interest Rate Y Z ZZ, High interest rate

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Every point on the IS curve is an equilibrium for the goods market. Income, Y Interest, i Y Z ZZ, Medium Interest Rate IS (high consumer confidence) IS (low consumer confidence)

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Financial Markets and the LM Relation The interest rate is determined by the equality of the supply of and the demand for money: The interest rate is determined by the equality of the supply of and the demand for money: 5-2 M = nominal money stock PYL(i) = demand for money PY = $Y = nominal income i = nominal interest rate

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Real Money, Real Income, and the Interest Rate The LM relation: In equilibrium, the real money supply is equal to the real money demand, which depends on real income, Y, and the interest rate, i: The LM relation: In equilibrium, the real money supply is equal to the real money demand, which depends on real income, Y, and the interest rate, i:

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Real Money, Real Income, and the Interest Rate The book uses $Y = PY The book uses $Y = PY From chapter 2, recall that Nominal GDP = Real GDP multiplied by the GDP deflator: From chapter 2, recall that Nominal GDP = Real GDP multiplied by the GDP deflator: Equivalently: Equivalently:

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Deriving the LM Curve Suppose Real Income increases: Suppose Real Income increases: Y rises Y rises People demand more money for transactions People demand more money for transactions M d shifts out. M d shifts out. If M s is vertical, i rises … If M s is vertical, i rises … … until the quantity of money demanded equals the quantity of money supplied, which is fixed. … until the quantity of money demanded equals the quantity of money supplied, which is fixed.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Deriving the LM Curve An increase in income leads, at a given interest rate, to an increase in the demand for money. Given the money supply, this leads to an increase in the equilibrium interest rate. The Effects of an Increase in Income on the Interest Rate

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Deriving the LM Curve Equilibrium in financial markets implies that an increase in income leads to an increase in the interest rate. The LM curve is upward-sloping.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Shifts of the LM Curve If the Central Bank increases the money supply, the LM curve shifts down. Shifts of the LM Curve The LM curve shifts in response to any factor that affects the money market, except i or Y.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Every point on the LM curve is an equilibrium for the money market. Income, Y Interest, i M/P interest, i M d, High income MsMs M/P interest, i M d, Medium income MsMs M/P interest, i M d, Low income MsMs

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Putting the IS and the LM Relations Together Equilibrium in the goods market implies that an increase in the interest rate leads to a decrease in output. Equilibrium in financial markets implies that an increase in output leads to an increase in the interest rate. When the IS curve intersects the LM curve, both goods and financial markets are in equilibrium. 5-3 The IS-LM Model

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Fiscal contraction refers to fiscal policy that reduces the budget deficit. Fiscal contraction refers to fiscal policy that reduces the budget deficit. An increase in the deficit is called a fiscal expansion. An increase in the deficit is called a fiscal expansion. Consider an increase in taxes. Consider an increase in taxes. Taxes affect the IS curve, not the LM curve. Taxes affect the IS curve, not the LM curve.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Suppose the government raises taxes. Suppose the government raises taxes. Higher Taxes affect the IS curve: Higher Taxes affect the IS curve: –They reduce disposable income, so that there is less consumption at every level of Y. Y Z ZZ Y falls at every level of interest. Y i IS

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Suppose the government raises taxes. Suppose the government raises taxes. Higher Taxes do not affect the LM curve: Higher Taxes do not affect the LM curve: –Neither disposable income nor taxes appear in the money market. i stays the same at every level of Y. M/P i MdMd MsMs Y i LM

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate An increase in taxes shifts the IS curve to the left, and leads to a decrease in the equilibrium level of output and the equilibrium interest rate. The Effects of an Increase in Taxes

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Higher taxes shift the IS curve to the left and leave the LM curve unchanged. Higher taxes shift the IS curve to the left and leave the LM curve unchanged. At the old level of interest rates, income has fallen. At the old level of interest rates, income has fallen. This causes the M d curve to move to the left in the money market. This causes the M d curve to move to the left in the money market. This causes a movement along the LM curve. This causes a movement along the LM curve. –The money market changed due to a change in Y, so the M d curve shifts but the LM curve does not shift. Equilibrium is restored at lower i and lower Y. Equilibrium is restored at lower i and lower Y.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Higher taxes and Investment. Higher taxes and Investment. –On the one hand, higher taxes lead to lower interest rates and higher investment. –On the other, higher taxes lead to lower economic activity, … and less investment. Also, lower economic activity reduces saving, reducing the amount of funds available for investment. Also, lower economic activity reduces saving, reducing the amount of funds available for investment.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Monetary Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Monetary contraction, or monetary tightening, refers to a decrease in the money supply. Monetary contraction, or monetary tightening, refers to a decrease in the money supply. An increase in the money supply is called monetary expansion. An increase in the money supply is called monetary expansion. Monetary policy does not affect the IS curve, only the LM curve. For example, an increase in the money supply shifts the LM curve down. Monetary policy does not affect the IS curve, only the LM curve. For example, an increase in the money supply shifts the LM curve down.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Monetary Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Suppose the Central Bank expands the Money Supply. Suppose the Central Bank expands the Money Supply. Higher M s does not affect the IS curve: Higher M s does not affect the IS curve: –The Money Supply does not appear in the goods market. Y Z ZZ Y stays the same at any i. Y i IS

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Monetary Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Suppose the Central Bank expands the Money Supply. Suppose the Central Bank expands the Money Supply. Higher M s shifts the LM curve to the right: Higher M s shifts the LM curve to the right: –A greater money supply lowers the interest rate at every level of income. i falls at every level of Y. M/P i MdMd MsMs Y i LM M s LM

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Monetary Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Monetary expansion leads to higher output and a lower interest rate. The Effects of a Monetary Expansion

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Monetary Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Higher Money Supply shifts the LM curve to the right and leave the IS curve unchanged. Higher Money Supply shifts the LM curve to the right and leave the IS curve unchanged. At the old level of income, interest rates have fallen. At the old level of income, interest rates have fallen. This causes Investment to increase, shifting the ZZ curve up in the goods market. This causes Investment to increase, shifting the ZZ curve up in the goods market. The increase in income causes a movement along the IS curve. The increase in income causes a movement along the IS curve. –The goods market changed due to a change in i, so the ZZ curve shifts but the IS curve does not shift. Equilibrium is restored at lower i and higher Y. Equilibrium is restored at lower i and higher Y.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate Table 5-1 The Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy. Shift of IS Shift of LM Movement of Output Movement in Interest Rate Increase in taxesleftnonedown Decrease in taxesrightnoneup Increase in spending rightnoneup Decrease in spending leftnonedown Increase in moneynonedownupdown Decrease in moneynoneupdownup

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Using a Policy Mix The combination of monetary and fiscal polices is known as the monetary-fiscal policy mix, or simply, the policy mix. The combination of monetary and fiscal polices is known as the monetary-fiscal policy mix, or simply, the policy mix. 5-4

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Clinton-Greenspan Policy Mix Table 5-2 Selected Macro Variables for the United States, Budget surplus (% of GDP) (minus sign = deficit) GDP growth (%) Interest rate (%) Over the 90s, fiscal policy was contractionary and monetary policy was expansionary. This led to low interest rates and high output growth.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Clinton-Greenspan Policy Mix The appropriate combination of deficit reduction and monetary expansion can achieve a reduction in the deficit without adverse effects on output. Deficit Reduction and Monetary Expansion

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard German Unification and the German Monetary-Fiscal Tug of War Table 5-2 Selected Macro Variables for West Germany, GDP growth (%) Investment growth (%) Budget surplus (% of GDP) (minus sign = deficit) Interest rate (%)

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard German Unification and the German Monetary-Fiscal Tug of War The Monetary-Fiscal Policy Mix of Post- Unification Germany

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard How does the IS-LM Model Fit the Facts? The two dotted lines and the tinted space between them gives us a confidence band, a band within which the true value of the effect lies with 60% probability. In the short run, an increase in the federal funds rate leads to a decrease in output and an decrease in production, But so that, for a while, sales are below production and inventories accumulate. The Empirical Effects of an Increase in the Federal Funds Rate 5-5

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard How does the IS-LM Model Fit the Facts? The two dotted lines and the tinted space between them gives us a confidence band, a band within which the true value of the effect lies with 60% probability. In the short run, an increase in the federal funds rate leads to an increase in unemployment, but little effect on the price level. The Empirical Effects of an Increase in the Federal Funds Rate

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard How does the IS-LM Model Fit the Facts? In general, the IS-LM model seems to be a pretty good description of the short run. In general, the IS-LM model seems to be a pretty good description of the short run. –Econometric evidence tells us (within certain bounds of error) that contractionary monetary policy –Lowers employment –… without changing prices –(which is what we assumed in this chapter).

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard What did I learn in this chapter? Tools and Concepts Tools and Concepts –The IS-LM framework. The simultaneous determination of income and interest rates; how different shocks affect these two. The simultaneous determination of income and interest rates; how different shocks affect these two. –The option of choosing alternative policy mixes to achieve macroeconomic goals. –The use of + and - below the argument of a function to indicate the effect of an increase in the value of the argument on the value of the function.

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© 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard What did I learn in this chapter? Remember Remember –We still assume prices are fixed, –But we relax the assumptions that investment is independent of the interest rate (assumed in Chapter 3) and that nominal income is fixed (assumed in Chapter 4). –Investment is also allowed to depend on output. –The point of this chapter is to show how goods and financial markets are related and thus how output and the interest rate are simultaneously determined. –We continue to assume the economy is closed.

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