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Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Fuels Used in Electricity Generation For U.S. Nuclear Infrastructure.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Fuels Used in Electricity Generation For U.S. Nuclear Infrastructure."— Presentation transcript:

1 U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Fuels Used in Electricity Generation For U.S. Nuclear Infrastructure Council June 05, 2013 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator

2 Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation 2 U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 25% 19% 42% 13% 1% Nuclear Oil and other liquids Natural gas Coal Renewables 2011 ProjectionsHistory 17% 16% 35% 30% 1% % 13% 19% 11% 4% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

3 Key results from the AEO2013 reference case relating to the electric power sector Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, While coal still remains the largest single source of U.S. electricity generation, its role declines as natural gas and renewables pick up increasing market share Natural gas production is higher throughout the reference case projection than it was in AEO2012, serving the industrial and power sectors and an expanding export market Role of nuclear power in the U.S. generation mix stays relatively steady The U.S. becomes a larger exporter of natural gas and coal than was projected in the AEO2012 reference case U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain more than five percent below their 2005 level through 2040, reflecting increased efficiency and the shift to a less carbon-intensive fuel mix

4 Why we might could will be wrong? Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, Changing policies and regulations Changing consumer preferences Faster / slower economic growth Faster / slower technological progress Different relative fuel prices Technological breakthroughs

5 Electricity demand: growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, percent growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 History Projections 2011 Electricity Use GDP 2.4% 0.9% 2011 – 2040 average

6 Natural gas and coal prices: coal regains competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis 6 ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 History Projections dollars per Btu HistoryProjections2011 Competitive parity Energy prices to the electric power sector Coal Natural gas Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

7 Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of April 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.

8 New power plant costs: levelized cost of electricity Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, costs for new U.S. electricity power plants in dollars per megawatthour Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013

9 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely across U.S. regions (2011) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, based on Form EIA-923 National AverageMinimumMaximum Coal 42%0%80% Natural Gas 25%2%87% Nuclear 19%0%41% Renewables 13%1%65% Oil / Other 1%0%5% Share of Generation by Fuel, 2011

10 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, The projected fuel mix for electricity generation by region (2040) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 National AverageMinimumMaximum Coal 35%0%69% Natural Gas 30%2%81% Nuclear 17%0%36% Renewables 16%1%53% Oil / Other 1%0%2% Share of Generation by Fuel, 2040

11 Additions to electricity generation capacity, Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, U.S. electricity generation capacity additions gigawatts Source: EIA Form 860 & EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013

12 Changes in nuclear capacity for the AEO2013 reference case Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, gigawatts Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013

13 Nuclear relevant side cases in AEO2013 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, High/low nuclear High/low oil and gas resource Small modular reactors (SMRs) ??? CO 2 fee cases

14 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, capacity additions gigawatts Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Planned Unplanned Nuclear capacity additions in AEO2013 vary under different assumptions

15 If natural gas prices stay low, coal is permanently displaced as the leading generation source in the near future Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, billion kilowatthours Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Coal Natural Gas Reference High Oil and Natural Gas Resource Projections

16 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, capacity gigawatts Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Coal Oil/gas steam Natural gas combined cycle Nuclear Natural gas combustion turbine Renewable/other 2040 Power sector electricity generation capacity by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2040

17 Small Modular Reactors (SMR) Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, SMR technology differs from traditional, large-scale light- water reactor technology in both reactor size and plant scalability EIA conducted a side case to evaluate the effect of a shorter construction period on future nuclear capacity expansion The case showed that there are potential cost saving from the shorter construction periods but uncertainty about potential future operations costs remains.

18 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2013 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case Natural gas Renewables Nuclear Coal % 13% 19% 42% 30% 16% 17% 35% Natural gas $15 Carbon Fee Renewables Nuclear Coal 34% 22% 27% 16% $25 Carbon Fee Natural gas Renewables Nuclear Coal 34% 23% 38% 4%

19 U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand 19 U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013 Consumption Domestic supply Net imports 37% ProjectionsHistory Petroleum Exports -8% 32% STEO forecast for % 2012 Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

20 20 Keynote Speakers Dr. Ernest J. Moniz U.S. Secretary of Energy Lisa Murkowski United States Senator Alaska Thomas Fanning Chairman, President and CEO Southern Company Aldo Flores- Quiroga Secretary General International Energy Forum Hans Rosling Chairman Gapminder EIA.gov

21 For more information Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | Annual Energy Outlook | Short-Term Energy Outlook | International Energy Outlook | Today In Energy | Monthly Energy Review | Annual Energy Review |


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