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Global Gold & Precious SEPTEMBRE 2009 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Global Gold & Precious SEPTEMBRE 2009 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Gold & Precious SEPTEMBRE 2009 1

2 Table of Contents Commodities AM in a few words Too late to sell
Gold bullion: back to basics Gold mines vs. Gold bullion Global Gold and Precious Investment process Portfolio snapshots Performance Fund management team Fund terms Take-Away Contacts SEPTEMBRE 2009

3 Commodities AM in a few words
Fully independent French Asset Management company – Approved by AMF* under N° GP97016 Specialist of thematic equity funds: Gold & Precious Metals Energy & Natural Resources Active management style, with direct allocation to listed stocks globally, which relies on the portfolio managers' industry sector expertise 12-year track-record, with first-class French industry awards Attractive product offer that meets investment needs of institutional investors, private banking/IFAs clientele and third party asset managers acting as allocators for multi- management funds or for individual discretionary mandates. * Autorité des Marchés Financiers / French supervisory body SEPTEMBRE 2009

4 Too late to Sell “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” Source : Wall Street Journal, Financial Times SEPTEMBRE 2009

5 Too late to Sell “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” Source: Bloomberg SEPTEMBRE 2009

6 Too late to Sell “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” Source: Bloomberg SEPTEMBRE 2009

7 Gold bullion: back to basics
Fewer Gold Discoveries and a Flat Production Represents 189 gold deposits discovered since 1990, each with at least 1M oz. gold in reserves, or combination of reserves, resources and past production of 2 M oz. gold Source: Metals Economics Group, Strategies for Gold Reserves Replacement 2012 SEPTEMBRE 2009

8 Gold bullion: back to basics
With no improvement in sight Significant Gold drill results announced Source: Metals Economics Group, Strategies for Gold Reserves Replacement 2012 SEPTEMBRE 2009

9 Gold bullion: back to basics
Based on slower activity on the fields Pipeline activity index falling, validated by companies cutting their exploration budgets Source: Metals Economics Group, Strategies for Gold Reserves Replacement 2012 SEPTEMBRE 2009

10 Gold bullion: back to basics
Longer Time from Discoveries to Production Source: Metal’s Economics Group Minesearch Database & Estimates, Company Reports

11 Gold bullion: back to basics
Lower Average Grade and Higher Costs Average gold grade of undeveloped deposits of over 1M ounces is 0.66 g/t 2012 All in costs @ USD 1 285* * GOS Matrix Source: NRH Research 2012 Ranking Gold Mines & Deposits SEPTEMBRE 2009

12 Gold bullion: back to basics
While Demand remains elevated * Q annualized (assumes 700 tonnes in ETFs outflows, or 25% of total holdings) Source: World Gold Council SEPTEMBRE 2009

13 Gold bullion: back to basics
Central Banks are Net Buyers * Q annualized (109 tonnes purchased in Q1 2013) Source: World Gold Council SEPTEMBRE 2009

14 Gold bullion: back to basics
Confront short term ETFs investment selloff headwinds mainly from IAs Source : World Gold Council, BofA Merril Lynch Global Commodity Research SEPTEMBRE 2009

15 Gold bullion: back to basics
And extreme non commercial short positions (Futures only) Source: Bloomberg, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission SEPTEMBRE 2009

16 Gold bullion: back to basics
Structural macro issues intact... The playground consisting of: Competitive devaluations Low real interest rates and Money supply (decelerating rate of growth presently) remains very supportive of a sustainable growth in the price of gold. Any reacceleration of the money supply will stress the depth of the uptrend. Source : US Federal Reserve

17 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
FACTS: Since 2000, gold mining companies outperformed gold bullion 44% of the time (6/13,5). After 2 years of outperformance (2009 – 2010), gold mining companies underperformed gold in 2011, 2012 and YTD. MUCH WORSE: they delivered negative absolute returns in 2011 and 2012 while gold progressed at a double digit pace AND they demonstrated an erosion of their excess return in uptrend markets since 2006. SEPTEMBRE 2009

18 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
Annual Performance (net, in USD, as of 04/30/13) SEPTEMBRE 2009

19 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
YES, Gold mining companies are undervalued on a relative and absolute basis on many criterias: Gold index / Gold bullion Historical profitability levels (operating margins, net margins) NAV multiples US$ value of an ounce in the ground Mkt K / oz produced SEPTEMBRE 2009

20 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
Gold Mines are undervalued on a historical basis (20 year horizon) Source: Bloomberg SEPTEMBRE 2009

21 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
Gold Mines are undervalued on a historical basis (20 year horizon) Source: Bloomberg SEPTEMBRE 2009

22 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
Producers vs Juniors/Explorers Uptrend vs. downtrend markets Producer Index GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) Explorer Index MVGDXJ (Mkt Vector Junior Gold Miners Index) Source: Bloomberg SEPTEMBRE 2009

23 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
Juniors are close to technical capitulation levels Producer Index GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) Explorer Index MVGDXJ (Mkt Vector Junior Gold Miners Index) Source: Bloomberg SEPTEMBRE 2009

24 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
So are the Seniors Producer Index GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) Explorer Index MVGDXJ (Mkt Vector Junior Gold Miners Index) Source: Bloomberg SEPTEMBRE 2009

25 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
Gold mining companies have been penalized for not being able to deliver the expected historical leverage resulting from a higher gold price. Despite a historical high profitability (19% of net margins in Q1 2013), the latter have stagnated these last two years while gold price increased by 13% over the same period. THE REAL QUESTION: will gold mines regain their historical leverage? many fundamental elements demonstrate that the mining industry understood the message sent by the investment community and several managerial strategic decisions made in the last few months validate this point These decisions have a double objective: rationalize the operations and reduce the dilution that plagued the industry. SEPTEMBRE 2009

26 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
Many board of Directors made their top executives redundant: among other names, Kinross Gold, Barrick Gold Corp. Newmont Mining Corp. or d’Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Centerra Gold Inc. or Great Basin Gold. Very recently, Allied Nevada Gold Corp. and Newcrest Mining Ltd. made similar announcements. The carnage in the junior space (index down 70% from its 2011 high) triggered a wave of strategic investments by senior and intermediate producers: this is the case of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. making investments in Sulliden Gold Corp., Probe Mines Ltd*, or Atac* Resources Ltd.* and Teck Resources Ltd. financing True Gold Mining Inc*.   The focus is on cost controls: Barrick Gold Corp. reduced its overhead costs by $100 million and identified $500 million of further reductions to expenditures; Osisko Mining Corp. announced a decrease of $80 million in discretionary spending; Yamana Gold Inc. targeted a costs reduction of US$150 per oz in Iamgold Corp. initiated a program to reduce annual spending by $100 million. * 8% cumulative weight in the Global Gold and Precious fund SEPTEMBRE 2009

27 Gold mines vs. Physical gold
Heads-up announcements are made in respect to potential closures of marginal operations should gold prices deteriorate further: this is the case of Hochschild Mining PLC. Gold mines initiated share buyback programs: this is the case of Alamos Gold Inc. (which offered to purchase for cancellation up to 10% of the public float of its outstanding common shares) or Eldorado Gold Corp. (up to 5% of the public float). The impact of a lower gold price already impacted Q marginal operations, with Elgin Mining Inc., Aurizon Mines Ltd., Lake Shore Gold Corp., Jaguar Mining Inc. or Gabriel Resources Ltd. releasing losses for the quarter.   New phenomena in the precious metal industry, the involvement of activist shareholders: this is the case of the Clinton Group, Inc. which demanded changes to the strategy, operations and management at Stillwater Mining Company, mentioning a series of « strategic missteps » and « bad acquisitions » SEPTEMBRE 2009

28 Global Gold & Precious Key facts
The Fund objective is to provide investors with quality excess return in comparison to the FTSE Gold Mines Index composite. The Fund manager is responsible for the stock selection and focuses mainly on 'large cap' stocks listed on the North-American, Australian and South African stocks exchanges and which are engaged in the prospection, the extraction or the transformation of precious metals. A. Corbani is managing the fund since Jan, As of 05/29/13 NAV Global Gold & Precious: / FTSE Gold Mines (EUR) value: Excess Return vs FTSE Gold Mines since Jan + 17.4% Annualized Volatility vs FTSE Gold Mines index since Jan 29.3 vs 30.0 SEPTEMBRE 2009

29 Investment Process Portfolio Construction Sources of Value Creation
Stock Selection To optimize the portfolio allocation between "PRODUCERS" and "EXPLORATORS" To identify and select high potential stocks in the Gold & Precious Metal sector Exposure to physical ETFs to benefit from upside and downside trends CORE Bucket 50 – 80 % SATELLITE Bucket 15 – 50 % ETF 0 - 10% Exposure to “SENIOR PRODUCERS" Exposure to “JUNIORS" CORE Stock selection within the FTSE Gold Mines Index components (or other producing mining companies within the sector) Selection criteria: Profitable undervalued companies Stock weighting is different from the Index SATELLITE Stock selection within the 2000 listed companies of the Gold and Precious Metal sector Selection criteria: Under-valued producing companies, undervalued assets, companies with high probabilities of above average discoveries,… Pure Stock-Picking 20 years of industry experience for the portfolio manager About one hundred one-to-ones per year with company management SEPTEMBRE 2009

30 Global Gold and Precious
Investment Process Stock picking 2 000 companies Market Insights Network Sell Side Research Conferences / Seminars Fundamental analysis Operations geography / Regulation Characteristics of mines Financial ratios Management Meeting Over 100 visits/one on one per year CORE Eligible universe 80 / 90 companies, monitored daily Global Gold and Precious 40-50 stocks SEPTEMBRE 2009

31 Portfolio Snapshots Portfolio breakdowns (as of 05/29/13)
Index – Out of the Index breakdown (% of AuM) Core – Satellite breakdown (% of AuM) SEPTEMBRE 2009

32 Portfolio Snapshots Portfolio breakdowns (as of 05/29/13)
Breakdown by Major Sector (% of AuM) Breakdown by geography (% of AuM) Breakdown by Type of production (% of AuM) SEPTEMBRE 2009

33 Portfolio Snapshots Market Cap (as of 05/29/13) SEPTEMBRE 2009 Median:
675 M USD SEPTEMBRE 2009

34 Performance Evolution of the Fund NAV (net, in EUR, as of 05/29/13)
Change of portfolio manager SEPTEMBRE 2009

35 Performance Evolution of the Fund NAV since Jan,1st 2009 (net, in EUR, as of 05/29/13) SEPTEMBRE 2009

36 Performance Manager’s Tenure Snapshot (Yearly performance, net, in EUR) Proven ability to capture excess performance in Up Markets and to lower specific risk in Down Markets Down Markets Up Markets SEPTEMBRE 2009

37 Performance Annualized statistics (net, in EUR, as of 05/29/13)
SEPTEMBRE 2009

38 Fund Management Alain Corbani - Chief Executive Officer
Lead portfolio manager of Global Gold & Precious and Global Energy & Natural Resources EXPERIENCE - 20 years in the Sell-Side business, notably within Dominion Securities then RBC Capital Markets, a leading Canadian Investment bank - Founding partner of Green Oak Alain developed strong knowledge and expertise in North- American equity investing and in the commodities sector. BACKGROUND MBA in ‘Management International’ - George Washington University, Washington DC, USA - Bachelor of Science in ‘Management International’ - IPESUP Paris France Nicolas Paccioni Co-Portfolio manager of Global Gold & Precious and Global Energy & Natural Resources - 5 years of experience in the financial industry After working for Cortal Bourse as a security operator, Nicolas joins Commodities AM in 2007 as a financial analyst on commodities. He is appointed portfolio manager of Global Gold & Precious in 2009. - Inseec Paris SEPTEMBRE 2009

39 Fund Terms SEPTEMBRE 2009 39 Global Gold and Precious ISIN code:
Asset under management as of 05/29/13: 12.1 M EUR ISIN code: AMF Category: Minimum recommended holding period: Legal structure: Distribution policy: Base currency: Inception date: Initial NAV: Currency risk hedging: Performance Index: Bloomberg ticker : Others sources: Valuation frequency: Sales charge: Management fees: Performance fees: Custodian: Fund Administrator: Statutory Auditor: FR Global Equity 5 years French "FCP" Capitalisation Euro 07/21/2000 100 EUR Optional FTSE Gold Mines Index (en euro) GLGOLPR FP Morningstar, Europerformance Daily 4 % (max) 2 % (max) 15 % of the performance above the FTSE Gold Mines Index RBC DEXIA INVESTOR SERVICES SOCIETE GENERALE SECURITIES SERVICES DELOITTE & Associés SEPTEMBRE 2009 39

40 Take Away – Global Gold & Precious
Positive gold sector fundamentals still in place to achieve superior return despite short term strategic headwinds. We will NOT pick the bottom BUT the risk reward theme for holding gold mines lies strongly on the latter due to structural improvements at the corporate level The fund has reached its optimum exposure to the junior sector with a 49% allocation Active management style that benefits from the high-skilled portfolio manager ability to select stocks within the production and exploration sub-sectors 22 years of industry experience for the portfolio manager 12-year track-record, with first-class French industry awards +2,58% of outperformance per year vs. FTSE Gold Mines Index (period: 07/21/00 – 05/29/13) WITH similar volatility SEPTEMBRE 2009

41 Contacts Alain Corbani Nicolas Paccioni Mathilde de Cheffontaines
Chief Executive Officer, Portfolio manager of Global Gold & Precious and Global Energy and Natural Resources Tel: Nicolas Paccioni Co-Portfolio manager of Global Gold & Precious and Global Energy and Natural Resources Portfolio manager of Global Euro Middle Cap Tel: Mathilde de Cheffontaines Head of Administration Tel: Commodities Asset Management 11 rue de Téhéran 75008 Paris - France Facsimile: Internet: SEPTEMBRE 2009

42 Disclaimer This presentation is strictly for information purposes only. This document does not constitute an offer or commitment, a solicitation of an offer or commitment, or any advice or recommendation, to conclude any transaction (whether on the indicative terms shown or otherwise). Before entering into any transaction, you should ensure that you fully understand the potential risks and rewards of that transaction and that you independently determine that the transaction is appropriate for you given your objectives, experience, financial and operational resources and other relevant circumstances. The prospectus of the Fund is available upon request or at Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. SEPTEMBRE 2009


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