US Productivity Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Total Factor Productivity Increases Take labor and capital into account percentage increase in output that is not accounted for by changes in the volume of inputs of capital and labour. Source: Economist, 2009
U.S. Productivity Gains Services harder to make more productive Product Development team structure (Eg: Chrysler Prowler, Boeing 787) Facilities improvements (less WIP, better quality, flexibility) Keiretsu-like supplier cooperation -- tight cooperation
U. S. Productivity Gains Increased 1.37% per year 1990-95 Increased 2.37% per year 1995-98 Potential sources of productivity gains: Capital investment (1.13%) Labor Quality(0.25%) Technological progress(0.99%) Computers really are making us more productive. Source: WSJ, 8/1/00, Further Gains in Productivity are Predicted, A2
Improving Productivity Develop productivity measurements– you cant improve what you cant measure Identify and Improve bottleneck operations first Establish goals, document and publicize improvements
Hours Worked by Country Source: OECD, 2012 Average
Hours Worked and Productivity Source: Eurofund, European Working Conditions Observatory, 2012
What Would Henry Say? Ford introduced the $5 (per day) wage in 1914 He introduced the 40 hour work week so people would have more time to buy It also meant more output: 3*8 > 2*10 Now we know from our experience in changing from six to five days and back again that we can get at least as great production in five days as we can in six, and we shall probably get a greater, for the pressure will bring better methods. Crowther, Worlds Work, 1926
Forty Hour Week Ernst Abbe, Karl Zeiss optics 1896: as much done in 9 as in 8.
Marginal Output of Time Value of working n hrs is Onda As you work more hours, your productivity per hour goes down Eventually, it goes negative. Better to work b instead of e hrs S.J. Chapman, 1909, Hours of Labour, The Economic Journal 19(75) 353-373
Crunch Mode Ea_spouse: 12/04 Pre-crunch SO was working 7 * 13: 91 per week! Maybe time off at 6pm Saturday $5k signing bonus, couldnt quit Class action: April 06 $14.9m Igda.org Why Crunch Mode Doesnt Work: 6 Lessons
Learning Curves time/unit goes down consistently Down by 10% as output doubles We can use Logarithms to approximate this What will our cost per unit be when weve made 10,000 units? If you ever need this, email me, and we can talk as much as you want Also, see Appendix B
Example 1 Pauls12345 Bottles60100150200250 Bags100200300400500 Newmans Bottles7585959798 Bags200400600650680 Demand for each product, by year.
Example 1 Totals12345 Bottles135185245297348 Bags3006009001,0501,180 bottle machines 150k/yr Three currently = 150 * 3 = 450k bag machines 250k/yr Five currently = 250 * 5 = 1,250k
Example 1 Bottles135185245297348 Machines12223 Mach. usage0.91.231.631.982.32 Workers1.82.463.273.964.64 (2 workers per machine) Bags3006009001,0501,180 Machines23455 Mach Usage220.127.116.11.24.7 Workers18.104.22.1682.614.1 (3 workers per machine)
Capacity Tradeoffs Can we make combinations in between? 150,000 Two-door cars 120,000 4-door cars
How much do we have? We can only sustain so much effort. Best Operating Level Output level process designed for Lowest cost per unit Capacity utilization = capacity used best operating level Hard to run > 1.0 for long
Time Horizons Long-Range: over a year – acquiring, disposing of production resources Intermediate Range: Monthly or quarterly plans, hiring, firing, layoffs Short Range – less than a month, daily or weekly scheduling process, overtime, worker scheduling, etc.
Service Differences Arrival Rate very variable Cant store the products - yesterdays flight? Service times variable Serve me Right Now! Rates change quickly Schedule capacity in 10 minute intervals, not months How much capacity do we need?
Capacity Levels in Service Zone of non-service < Zone of service Critical Zone Mean service rate, Mean arrival rate, =100% =70% 150 100 50
Adding Capacity Expensive to add capacity A few large expansions are cheaper (per unit) than many small additions Large expansions allow of clean sheet of paper thinking, re-design of processes Carry unused overhead for a long time May never be needed
Reengineering Business Process Reengineering (Hammer and Champy) Companies grow over time, adding plants, lines, facilities, etc. Growth may not end in optimal form Re-design processes from ground up
Capacity Planning How much capacity should we add? Conservative Optimistic Forecast possible demand scenarios (Chapter 11) Determine capacity needed for likely levels Determine capacity cushion desired
Toyota Capacity 1997: Cars and vans? Thats crazy talk First time in North America 292,000 Camrys 89,000 Siennas 89,000 Avalons
Capacity Sources In addition to expanding facilities: Two or three shifts Outsourcing non-core activities Training or acquisition of faster equipment
Decision Trees Consider different possible decisions, and different possible outcomes Compute expected profits of each decision Choose decision with highest expected profits, work your way back up the tree.
Summary Having enough capacity is crucial Measured productivity (single and multi- factor) Increasing productivity key to economic growth and profits Computed number of machines and employees needed Making employees more productive is often cheaper than adding machines