1. Predicting the Geographical Landscape of United States born professional hockey players in the year 2025.
Gary A. Parkhurst, GISP
Advisor: Dr. Todd Bacastow
GEOG 596A: Capstone Peer Review
Spring 2014

2. Overview Question & Motivation Background Assumptions Data Discovery
Methodology
Anticipated Results
Timeline
References
Acknowledgements

3. Recent Notable Florida Youth Hockey Teams
Question & Motivation
Question
Does Florida youth ice hockey consistently competing and winning National Tournaments signal a larger trend of youth ice hockey in “non-traditional” areas?
Why this topic?
Undergraduate degree in sport management
Worked 2 years in professional hockey for the Pittsburgh Penguins
Coach multiple youth hockey teams in Florida
Teams from Florida are competing and winning on a National Level against teams from traditional Northern states – why?
I believe that GIS and it’s impact on sports is in its infancy.
Florida Fire Ants Mite A National Championship team photo in Edina, Minnesota. (March 2014)
Recent Notable Florida Youth Hockey Teams
Tampa Scorpions Tier 2 U16 AA – 2013 National Champions
Florida Alliance 2004 AAA - #1 Nationally ranked Independent team in the United States
Florida Fire Ants 2005 Mite A – 2013/2014 AAU National Champions

4. Background – GIS & Sports

5. Background – Professional Hockey
Professional Players: For the purpose of this study, a professional player is defined as any player who played at least one game in one of the five professional leagues in North America.
Professional Leagues: There are 5 professional hockey leagues in North America.
National Hockey League (NHL)
American Hockey League (AHL)
East Coast Hockey League (ECHL)
Central Hockey League (CHL)
Southern Professional Hockey League (SPHL)
Total of 100 Professional teams across all 5 leagues
2,843 players played Professional Hockey during the 2013/2014 season
Miracle on Ice: The 1980 United States Olympic Team and their improbable gold medal introduced ice hockey to Non-Traditional states across America.
1980 United States Olympic Team
2014 United States Olympic Team
Minnesota - 60%
Massachusetts – 20%
Michigan – 10%
Wisconsin – 10%
Minnesota - 32%
New York – 24%
Michigan – 12%
Wisconsin – 12%
Connecticut – 8%
New Jersey – 8%
Missouri – 4%

6. 2014 Professional Ice Hockey Players
Background
National Hockey League
American Hockey League
East Coast Hockey League
Central Hockey League
Southern Professional Hockey League
Professional Teams
2014 Professional Ice Hockey Players
(per state)
9 - 15
1 - 8

7. Assumptions
Increase of Players - Assume you will see an increase in the number of U.S. born hockey players from non-traditional hockey states (like Florida) in the next decade.
Culture Change - Assume the culture has been transplanted to warm weather states from parents that have relocated from northern states.
Demographics – Ice Hockey is a very expensive sport to develop elite players. Demographics can be used to study areas that have developed elite players in the past and apply that to predict similar areas in non-traditional markets .

8. Athlete Demographic Data
Data Discovery
Literature Review
Identify previous studies
Newspaper Articles
Magazine Articles
Polling Data
Florida hockey parents poll to determine place of birth and transplantation of hockey culture
Athlete Demographic Data
Professional Hockey players place of birth
25 year NHL draft history of U.S. born selected players
Miscellaneous Data
Census Data for anomaly areas
U.S. Ice Rink database
Data Discovery
Literature Review
Miscellaneous Data
Athlete Demographic Data
Polling Data
Key to my project is the data discovery stage. There is no established database of information that I can leverage to save time. Almost everything has to be created from scratch.

9. Data – Literature Review
This article is printed in the April/May 2014 USA Hockey Magazine. USA Hockey sponsors “Try Hockey For Free” days around the country to attract youth to the sport. A total of 28,446 kids in the United State took advantage of this USA Hockey initiative.
USA Hockey publishes a magazine for all of their registered members. The magazine is published every two months and profiles stories related to USA youth hockey while also promoting participation.
Article in the Sun Sentinel profiling a youth hockey player who was potentially making history in being the first born and raised Floridian ice hockey player to be selected in the National Hockey League draft. I found multiple articles similar to this in the past few years.
Florida geographic parents poll

10. Data – Hockey “Culture” Poll
Goal: To determine if the “hockey” culture from the Northern states has permeated to the Southern states by way of parents of youth hockey players.
Find website to design and publish a poll while also tracking the results
Distribute through social media and regional hockey directors to parents of youth hockey players in Florida
Gather, Analyze and Visualize results

11. Data – Athlete Demographics
2013 Draft Results – 1st Round (Picks 1-16)
Collect & Analyze Athlete Demographic information
Collect birth place information for all players that played at least one game in one of the five professional ice hockey leagues in North America during the 2013/14 season.
Collect all NHL draft information for the last years. This information is important to perform a temporal analysis

12. Listing of all Ice Rinks located within the United States.
Data – Miscellaneous
Collect & Analyze Miscellaneous Information
Identify the location of all ice rinks within the United States. These will need to be geolocated. Normalize ice rinks by population.
Collect Census data for anomaly/call out areas identified through research. I will most likely need to use zip codes since I do not have street level addresses.
Identify a dependable batch geocoder.
Listing of all Ice Rinks located within the United States.

13. Methodology – Temporal Comparison
1980 – 1999
NHL Draft Density
(Notional Data)
2000 – 2013
NHL Draft Density
(Notional Data)
Temporal Comparison of United States born ice hockey players drafted in the National Hockey League draft.
Use historical data to track the geographic evolution of U.S born ice hockey players.
Measure historical growth in non-traditional markets and predict future growth.
Animated output to show progression.

14. Methodology- Identify & Investigate Anomalies
California
Florida
2000 – 2013
NHL Draft Density
(Notional Data)
Questions
Can Census data be used to find demographic data that contributes to these anomalies?
Do like conditions exist in both traditional and non-traditional areas?
Has an NHL team in this market recently won a Stanley Cup? Has the team consistently won producing a culture of winning in the city resulting in attracting new fans to the game?
Have external factors such as the influence of USA Hockey contributed to growth with programs aimed at growing the game?

15. Methodology – Point Pattern Analysis (PPA)
Clustered
Dispersed
Random
Point Pattern Analysis of selected areas
Use Nearest Neighbor Distance Analysis to determine the spatial arrangement of points within the defined area of study.
Identify whether the points are Clustered, Dispersed, or Random.
Use Monte Carlo method to randomly generate iterations of patterns in order to assess our observed phenomena.
Use PPA for a comparison analysis on both traditional areas (Minnesota) and non-traditional areas. (Florida)

16. Anticipated Results
Expect to see a rise in players from warm weather states making an impact on professional hockey and major division I ice hockey programs.
Expect to see that the northern culture of ice hockey has been transplanted to southern “warm” weather states by parents of current youth ice hockey players.
Expect that the ice rink normalized by population will show that there is more ice available for northern kids.
Expect that using buffers around cities that have won a Stanley Cup is not a good indicator for an increase in production of professional ice hockey players from that area.
Expect the Point Pattern Analysis to demonstrate clustering around established ice hockey rinks.

17. Timeline Data Discovery Analysis & Final Prep Presentation
May/June
August
July/
September/ October
Future
Data Discovery
Professional Hockey players demographics
25 year NHL draft history of U.S. born selected players
Design & Distribute Poll
Data Discovery
(Cont) & Analysis
Identify previous studies
Newspaper Articles
Magazine Articles
Finalize Poll Results
Start Analysis
Analysis & Final Prep
Perform Point Pattern Analysis
Identify Anomalies
Finalize results
Complete Project
Presentation
Identify appropriate platform and audience to present findings.

18. References
"2013 NHL Draft." Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 24 Apr Web. 06 May <
"A Record Number of Kids Give Hockey A Try." USA Hockey 1 Apr. 2014: 08. Print.
"American Hockey League." The American Hockey League. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Apr <
"Central Hockey League." Central Hockey League. N.p., n.d. Web. 10 Apr <
"COLORBREWER 2.0." ColorBrewer: Color Advice for Maps. N.p., n.d. Web. 20 Apr
"East Coast Hockey League." The ECHL. N.p., n.d. Web. 25 Apr <
"Free Online Surveys." Create a Free Online Survey, Web Poll or Quiz. 1 Million+ Users! N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Apr <
Gorten, Steve. "Boca Teen Could Make History in NHL Draft." Sun Sentinel. N.p., 21 June Web. 25 Apr
"Ice Rinks Listing in the United States (USA)." Ice Rinks Listing in the United States (USA). N.p., n.d. Web. 28 Apr <
McGrew, J. Chapman., and Charles B. Monroe. An Introduction to Statistical Problem Solving in Geography. Boston: McGraw-Hill, Print.
"NHL.com - The National Hockey League." NHL.com - The National Hockey League. N.p., n.d. Web. 1 Apr
Richards, George. "On Frozen Pond." South Florida's Newest Export: Hockey Players. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 Apr
Routen, Barbara. "Brandon’s Fire Ants Win National Ice Hockey Championship." TBO.com. N.p., 8 Apr Web. 08 Apr
Shaw, Warren. "Canadian Prep School Accepts Florida Youth Hockey Player." Examiner.com. N.p., 11 Apr Web. 25 Apr
"SPHL Southern Professional Hockey League | | Pointstreak Sites." SPHL Southern Professional Hockey League | | Pointstreak Sites. N.p., n.d. Web. 20 Apr <
Trotter, Dave. "Florida 500: The History of Ice Hockey in Florida." The Political Hurricane Florida Political Blog. N.p., 6 Jan Web. 25 Apr
Warrener, Andy. "Youth Hockey Winning despite Limitations." Tampa Bay Times. N.p., 18 Apr Web. 18 Apr

19. Acknowledgments
Dr. Todd Bacastow
My wife and kids

20. Questions?
Contact Information
Gary A. Parkhurst