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Psychology of Personal Decision-Making SecurityFamilyAdventure Congo-0++ Arizona++0 Afghanistan---+++

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Presentation on theme: "Psychology of Personal Decision-Making SecurityFamilyAdventure Congo-0++ Arizona++0 Afghanistan---+++"— Presentation transcript:

1 Psychology of Personal Decision-Making SecurityFamilyAdventure Congo-0++ Arizona++0 Afghanistan---+++

2 Video: Building Green How to Choose: The decision ladder Prioritized Lists Screening Fact and Value Tables Decision Tables +/ Calculations

3 Start with simple methods and move to complex methods only as necessary!

4 Decision Tree 1-10 Decision Table +/- Decision Table Screening Prioritized List

5 Bad decisions: Single alternative No Devils advocate (groupthink) Unanimous adoption of bad idea

6 Build a robust list of alternatives! ++ save up for kayaking trip (accept) + go to the coast to hunt for shells (reject) - drive smelly grandma to airport (accept) --bathe grandma (reject)

7 Intuition vs. Analysis Intuition = simultaneous feelings about alternatives One usually feels best, so we choose Analysis = breaks the problem into sub parts and solves If the decision is important, use analysis!

8 Ask yourself (using intuition): Does this really make sense? Does it seem right? If no… Analysis is wrong (values, alternatives, weights) Intuition is wrong (denying yourself the truth) Both are wrong

9 World is flat Highly streamlined shapes best for earth re- entry Odds 2 people will have same birthday in classroom of 30 (= 1 in 30) Galileo and Tower of Pisa Others?

10 Either: Choose alternative giving you the most ammo for justifying the choice to others Choose based on good outcomes or consequences Beware of rule of thumb justifications They can be contradictory 2 heads better than 1 vs. too many cooks in the kitchen spoil the broth

11 When the sky looks like its been scratched by a hen, its time to reef your topsails then

12 Consider outcomes or consequences

13 A lot like panning for gold Consider 1 attribute at a time and reject TV purchase : Store first, then warranty, then… Best buy, Target, Staples, Newegg, Amazon Sony, Mitsubishi, Sanyo

14 You may have screened something really good out! FIX: Screen the most important value first If doubt about keeping an alternative, keep it! This way mistakes will not be huge TAKEAWAY: Screen when values of very high importance are abound

15 Bleeding, Breathing, Poisoning, Broken Bones

16 Ensures same values will be compared against multiple alternatives Screened out all linguists but Oxford grads because of stage presence Still are comparing stage presence on each Oxford grad

17 SecurityFamilyAdventure Congo Arizona Afghanistan

18 SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie Congo Arizona Afghanistan

19 SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie Congo1 armed guard 70% of time laughing 30 whizbang things per day Allergic to rainforests Loves searching for monkeys ArizonaNone needed 30% of time laughing 5 whizbang things per day Lives in New Mexico Has thought well of the desert Afghanistan5 armed guards 3% of time laughing 60 whizbang things per day Just completed a memoir In a soldiers shoes Is scared by bullets Vietnam1 armed guard 20% of time laughing 40 whizbangs Fought in NAM Enjoys jungles and monkeys Creative Alternative???

20 SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie Congo Arizona++0-+ Afghanistan Vietnam Creative Alternative???

21 SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie Congo1 armed guard 70% of time laughing 30 whizbang things per day Allergic to rainforests Loves searching for monkeys ArizonaNone needed 30% of time laughing 5 whizbang things per day Lives in New Mexico Has thought well of the desert Afghanistan5 armed guards 3% of time laughing 90 whizbang things per day Just completed a memoir In a soldiers shoes Is scared by bullets Dominance??

22 SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie Congo-70% of time laughing 30 whizbang things per day Allergic to rainforests Loves searching for monkeys ArizonaNone needed 30% of time laughing 5 whizbang things per day Lives in New Mexico Has thought well of the desert Afghanistan5 armed guards 3% of time laughing 90 whizbang things per day Just completed a memoir In a soldiers shoes Is scared by bullets Dominance??

23 We hope to find it, but caution! May indicate superior alternative Also irrationality/extremes

24 Rate (1-10, since zeroes confuse people) Go globally, so 1 is at least preferable but may not be in your range Weight Use magic wishes Multiply Down Add Across

25 Security.50 Family.25 Adventure.18 Grandpa.035 Susie.035 Congo47417 Afghanistan21861 Vietnam63578 SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie 10 (most preferred) No guards needed 98% laughing 100 whizbang things per day n/a 1 (lease preferred) 20 guards needed 0% laughing 0 whizbang things per day n/a

26 SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie 10 (most preferred) No guards needed 98% laughing 100 whizbang things per day n/a 1 (lease preferred) 20 guards needed 0% laughing 0 whizbang things per day n/a

27 Can help to think about relative: Magnitude Duration Probability Number of people impacted

28 Bumper sticker slogans Written sentences


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