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Psychology of Personal Decision-Making SecurityFamilyAdventure Congo-0++ Arizona++0 Afghanistan---+++
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Video: Building Green How to Choose: The decision ladder Prioritized Lists Screening Fact and Value Tables Decision Tables +/- 1-10 Calculations
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Start with simple methods and move to complex methods only as necessary!
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Decision Tree 1-10 Decision Table +/- Decision Table Screening Prioritized List
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Bad decisions: Single alternative No Devils advocate (groupthink) Unanimous adoption of bad idea
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Build a robust list of alternatives! ++ save up for kayaking trip (accept) + go to the coast to hunt for shells (reject) - drive smelly grandma to airport (accept) --bathe grandma (reject)
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Intuition vs. Analysis Intuition = simultaneous feelings about alternatives One usually feels best, so we choose Analysis = breaks the problem into sub parts and solves If the decision is important, use analysis!
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Ask yourself (using intuition): Does this really make sense? Does it seem right? If no… Analysis is wrong (values, alternatives, weights) Intuition is wrong (denying yourself the truth) Both are wrong
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World is flat Highly streamlined shapes best for earth re- entry Odds 2 people will have same birthday in classroom of 30 (= 1 in 30) Galileo and Tower of Pisa Others?
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Either: Choose alternative giving you the most ammo for justifying the choice to others Choose based on good outcomes or consequences Beware of rule of thumb justifications They can be contradictory 2 heads better than 1 vs. too many cooks in the kitchen spoil the broth
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When the sky looks like its been scratched by a hen, its time to reef your topsails then
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Consider outcomes or consequences
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A lot like panning for gold Consider 1 attribute at a time and reject TV purchase : Store first, then warranty, then… Best buy, Target, Staples, Newegg, Amazon Sony, Mitsubishi, Sanyo
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You may have screened something really good out! FIX: Screen the most important value first If doubt about keeping an alternative, keep it! This way mistakes will not be huge TAKEAWAY: Screen when values of very high importance are abound
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Bleeding, Breathing, Poisoning, Broken Bones
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Ensures same values will be compared against multiple alternatives Screened out all linguists but Oxford grads because of stage presence Still are comparing stage presence on each Oxford grad
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SecurityFamilyAdventure Congo Arizona Afghanistan
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SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie Congo Arizona Afghanistan
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SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie Congo1 armed guard 70% of time laughing 30 whizbang things per day Allergic to rainforests Loves searching for monkeys ArizonaNone needed 30% of time laughing 5 whizbang things per day Lives in New Mexico Has thought well of the desert Afghanistan5 armed guards 3% of time laughing 60 whizbang things per day Just completed a memoir In a soldiers shoes Is scared by bullets Vietnam1 armed guard 20% of time laughing 40 whizbangs Fought in NAM Enjoys jungles and monkeys Creative Alternative???
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SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie Congo++++-+ Arizona++0-+ Afghanistan--0+++- Vietnam-+++++ Creative Alternative???
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SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie Congo1 armed guard 70% of time laughing 30 whizbang things per day Allergic to rainforests Loves searching for monkeys ArizonaNone needed 30% of time laughing 5 whizbang things per day Lives in New Mexico Has thought well of the desert Afghanistan5 armed guards 3% of time laughing 90 whizbang things per day Just completed a memoir In a soldiers shoes Is scared by bullets Dominance??
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SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie Congo-70% of time laughing 30 whizbang things per day Allergic to rainforests Loves searching for monkeys ArizonaNone needed 30% of time laughing 5 whizbang things per day Lives in New Mexico Has thought well of the desert Afghanistan5 armed guards 3% of time laughing 90 whizbang things per day Just completed a memoir In a soldiers shoes Is scared by bullets Dominance??
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We hope to find it, but caution! May indicate superior alternative Also irrationality/extremes
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Rate (1-10, since zeroes confuse people) Go globally, so 1 is at least preferable but may not be in your range Weight Use magic wishes Multiply Down Add Across
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Security.50 Family.25 Adventure.18 Grandpa.035 Susie.035 Congo47417 Afghanistan21861 Vietnam63578 SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie 10 (most preferred) No guards needed 98% laughing 100 whizbang things per day n/a 1 (lease preferred) 20 guards needed 0% laughing 0 whizbang things per day n/a
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SecurityFamilyAdventureGrandpaSusie 10 (most preferred) No guards needed 98% laughing 100 whizbang things per day n/a 1 (lease preferred) 20 guards needed 0% laughing 0 whizbang things per day n/a
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Can help to think about relative: Magnitude Duration Probability Number of people impacted
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Bumper sticker slogans Written sentences
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