1. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 1 6/9/2014 The 2010 Hurricane Season… What We DO and Do NOT Know! Steve Letro Meteorologist in Charge National Weather Service, Jacksonville

2. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 2 6/9/2014 2010 Hurricane Season Outlook: What Does it Mean for You?

3. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 3 6/9/2014 Watch / Warning Issuance Times Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory Format Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Changes Size of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone 2010 Tropical Season Outlook Outline

4. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 4 6/9/2014 Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Tropical Storm Watch Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours Tropical Storm Warning Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area within 36 hours

5. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 5 6/9/2014 Hurricane Watches and Warnings Hurricane Watch Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds Hurricane Warning Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm- force winds

6. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 6 6/9/2014 Track Errors Cut in Half Last 15-20 Years!

7. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 7 6/9/2014 1970 48-hour Forecast Point over Jacksonville, Florida Average Error = 300 nautical miles Lets Try And Put That Into Perspective…

8. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 8 6/9/2014 Now 48-hour Forecast Point over Jacksonville, Florida Average Error = 80 nautical miles (~ 70% Reduction!)

9. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 9 6/9/2014 1970 vs. Today

10. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 10 6/9/2014 NHC Public Advisory 1. Basic Format Not Changed Since The 1960s 2. Plain-Language Intended for Rip and Read Broadcast Media. 3. Not Easily to Parse Sections Until A Summary Section became Tabular Format in 2009 4. Must Dig Through Several Paragraphs of Text to Find Basic Storm Info 5. Storm Hazards and Impacts Are Buried Near Bottom

11. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 11 6/9/2014 New Public Advisory Format Section Headers Added Storm Info First Changes to Watches/Warnings in the Current Advisory are Highlighted Bulleted Summary of All Watches/Warnings in Effect

12. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 12 6/9/2014 Section Headers Discussion of Forecast Motion, Intensity and Other Pertinent Info Storm Hazards and Impacts Shown by Type New Public Advisory Format

13. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 13 6/9/2014 The All-New Saffir-Simpson Scale No More Storm Surge! No More Flooding Impacts! No More Central Pressure!

14. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 14 6/9/2014 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale IKE (2) KATRINA (3) CHARLEY (4) Surge, Rainfall, and Pressure Fit the Scale Like a Square Peg in a Round Hole http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

15. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 15 6/9/2014 Biscayne Bay Average 11.7 NWS WFO Jacksonville CWA/AOR Average 12.8

16. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 16 6/9/2014 Water Totals Above the Datum (NGVD 27 or NAVD 88) Water Totals Above the AVERAGE Cell Ground Level Think of it as a First Guess Inundation

17. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 17 6/9/2014 Error Cone Update Slight Reduction in Size Due to Lower Track Errors Forecast Period (h) 2009 Circle Radius (n mi) (04 – 08 errors) 2010 Circle Radius (n mi) (05 – 09 errors) 1236 2462 368985 48111108 72167161 96230220 120302285

18. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 18 6/9/2014 The Main Weather Patterns Expected To Influence The 2010 Season: - Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation (AMO) - El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) - Surface Atmospheric Pressures - Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

19. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 19 6/9/2014 Avg. # Hurricanes = 4.7 Avg. # Hurricanes = 8.0

20. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 20 6/9/2014 Warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) Are A Prime Ingredient In Hurricane Formation… Providing The Necessary Fuel To Power The Storm SST Departures From Normal: 1995-2008 Warmer Than Normal Average Number of Hurricanes: 8.0 Average Number of Hurricanes: 4.7 SST Departures From Normal: 1981-1994 Near, Or Cooler Than Normal

21. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 21 6/9/2014 The Impact Of Sea Surface Temperature: Inactive vs. Active Seasons 1997 2004-2005 1997 2004-2005 3 Hurricanes, 1 Major 2 Year Avg: 12 Hurricanes, 6.5 Majors

22. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 22 6/9/2014 North Atlantic SST Annual Anomalies… Remember The 25-40 Year Cycle? Were Not Nearly Done! 1 0 - 0.5 0.5 0.5 1925 1900 19261969 19701994 191019201930194019501960197019801990 1995-2008 2009-2020 200020102020

23. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 23 6/9/2014 Current Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departures From Normal

24. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 24 6/9/2014 This Is A Comparison Of Oceanic Heat Content, or Hurricane Fuel Between 2009 and 2010 At The Start Of The Season Ocean Heat Content Is A Much Better Indicator Of Heat Potential Available Than Simple Sea Surface Temperatures June 1, 2009 June 1, 2010

25. El Niño versus La Niña The Two Phases Of ENSO El Niño causes extra thunderstorm development over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This causes a response in the atmosphere over the Atlantic basin of increased shear and sinking air, causing a drier and more stable atmosphere. La Niña causes a reduction and westward shift in thunderstorms. This forces the maximum sinking air to be located over the eastern Pacific and allows air to rise more freely over the Atlantic basin, in addition to less La Niña causes a reduction and westward shift in thunderstorms. This forces the maximum sinking air to be located over the eastern Pacific and allows air to rise more freely over the Atlantic basin, in addition to less shear. Upper winds

26. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 26 6/9/2014 Wind Shear Changes In Wind Speed & Direction With Height

27. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 27 6/9/2014 Wind Shear During June-July of 10 ENSO (El Nino vs La Nina) Events Wind Shear During June-July of 10 ENSO (El Nino vs La Nina) Events. El Niño Tends To Create Stronger Shear Across The Tropics Shear During La Niña Seasons Tends To Be Much Weaker

28. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 28 6/9/2014 2009 – Slightly Below Normal El Nino Helped!

29. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 29 6/9/2014 ENSO Index Since June 2008 El Nino La Nina 2009: 3 Hurricanes 2 Majors 0 US Landfall 2008: 8 Hurricanes 5 Majors 3 US Landfalls We Cant Count On El Nino To Help Us Out This Year! Less Favorable More Favorable

30. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 30 6/9/2014 IF The Evolution Of This Event Does Continue As The Forecasts Indicate… …The Typical Expected Impacts Would Include More, And Stronger Storms, Especially Those Forming In The Deep Tropics Peak Of Hurricane Season El Nino La Nina

31. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 31 6/9/2014 Sea-Level Pressure Known to influence hurricanes for at least 70 years. Pressure is a proxy for multiple qualities in the atmosphere. Lower pressures are linked to less sinking, which leads to a more moist atmosphere. Higher pressures in the subtropical high linked to stronger winds, and cooler water temperatures through increased upwelling.

32. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 32 6/9/2014 Composite Map Of June-July Anomalous Surface Pressures During 10 Active Hurricane Seasons Lower Than normal Higher Than Normal

33. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 33 6/9/2014 Another Player In Town… During The Recent Winter and Spring, Two Other Atmospheric Oscillations…The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and The Arctic Oscillations Were At Record Negative Values.During The Recent Winter and Spring, Two Other Atmospheric Oscillations…The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and The Arctic Oscillations Were At Record Negative Values. These Oscillations Influence The Strength And Position Of The Atlantic/Bermuda High Which Can Influence Where Storms Go.These Oscillations Influence The Strength And Position Of The Atlantic/Bermuda High Which Can Influence Where Storms Go. Since These Oscillations Have Never Shown Such Extreme Values… It Makes It Very Difficult to Infer Their Ultimate Impacts During The Hurricane Season Itself.Since These Oscillations Have Never Shown Such Extreme Values… It Makes It Very Difficult to Infer Their Ultimate Impacts During The Hurricane Season Itself.

34. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 34 6/9/2014 The Record Low AO/NAO Led To Well Below Normal Pressures In The East Atlantic This Spring… Leading To Less Upwelling Along The African Coast and Warmer SSTs

35. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 35 6/9/2014 Good News… Maybe… Pressures Across The Atlantic Basin Have Been More Normal Recently

36. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 36 6/9/2014 Madden-Julian Oscillation Discovered in the early 1970s by Roland Madden and Paul Julian.Discovered in the early 1970s by Roland Madden and Paul Julian. An eastward propagating wave that circles the globe in about 40-50 days involving tropical convection.An eastward propagating wave that circles the globe in about 40-50 days involving tropical convection. Detected in the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and wind fields across the tropics.Detected in the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and wind fields across the tropics. Later papers showed that it is an important modulator of TC activity, especially in the Pacific Ocean.Later papers showed that it is an important modulator of TC activity, especially in the Pacific Ocean.

37. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 37 6/9/2014

38. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 38 6/9/2014 MJO Effects in the Atlantic Basin The MJO Can Lose Much Of Its Strength Before Entering The Atlantic Basin.The MJO Can Lose Much Of Its Strength Before Entering The Atlantic Basin. In Addition, The MJO Is Weakest During The Late Summer, Near The Peak Of Atlantic Activity.In Addition, The MJO Is Weakest During The Late Summer, Near The Peak Of Atlantic Activity. Western Part Of The Basin Most Strongly AffectedWestern Part Of The Basin Most Strongly Affected The Atlantic Basin Is Most Active When Tropical Convection Is Suppressed In The Central Pacific Ocean And Enhanced In The Indian Ocean.The Atlantic Basin Is Most Active When Tropical Convection Is Suppressed In The Central Pacific Ocean And Enhanced In The Indian Ocean.

39. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 39 6/9/2014 Most Genesis Points Are Near Or Behind The Upper- Level Divergence Center (Green Shading). Unfortunately, The MJO Has Very Little Predictability Beyond 1-2 Weeks. The MJO And Tropical Cyclone Genesis Points

40. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 40 6/9/2014 The Madden Julian Oscillation… Individual MJO Events Are… Unfortunately… Unpredictable Beyond About 20 Days, In Onset, Strength, or Longevity.Individual MJO Events Are… Unfortunately… Unpredictable Beyond About 20 Days, In Onset, Strength, or Longevity. Its Also Unclear Exactly What Role The Interaction With A Dissipating El Nino May Play.Its Also Unclear Exactly What Role The Interaction With A Dissipating El Nino May Play. The MJO Must Be Watched Closely… Unusually Strong and Long Lasting MJO Events Are Often Accompanied By Lower Shear and Other Atmospheric Factors That Favor Tropical Cyclone DevelopmentThe MJO Must Be Watched Closely… Unusually Strong and Long Lasting MJO Events Are Often Accompanied By Lower Shear and Other Atmospheric Factors That Favor Tropical Cyclone Development

41. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 41 6/9/2014 With That In Mind…And For What Its Worth… Heres The 2010 Outlook NAMED STORMS: 14-23NAMED STORMS: 14-23 HURRICANES: 8-14HURRICANES: 8-14 MAJOR HURRICANES: 3-7MAJOR HURRICANES: 3-7 NET TROPICAL CYCONE ACTIVITY 155-270%NET TROPICAL CYCONE ACTIVITY 155-270% U.S. STRIKES ?U.S. STRIKES ? U.S. HRCN STRIKES: ?U.S. HRCN STRIKES: ? MAJOR U.S. HRCN STRIKES ?MAJOR U.S. HRCN STRIKES ?

42. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 42 6/9/2014 Consider The 1992 Hurricane Season… Only 6 Named Storms… But One Of Them Was Andrew!

43. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 43 6/9/2014 Put It Another Way… Lets Look At The Record 2005 Hurricane Season.. 27 Named Storms 27 Named Storms 15 Hurricanes 15 Hurricanes 7 Major Hurricanes 7 Major Hurricanes What Was The Big Hurricane That Impacted The Daytona Beach Area In 2005? Answer: There Werent Any… For Us, 2005 Was A Quiet Season!

44. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 44 6/9/2014 The Lesson??? Those Numbers Are Nice, But Without Knowing Where They Are Going To Go… They Dont Really Mean Much… And We Dont Know That!

45. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 45 6/9/2014 Above/Below Normal Does it Really Matter ?? It Only Takes One Storm ourIf our Area is Hit, its a Bad Year! 2007 Was Supposedly A Quiet Season.? Its Doubtful The People Of Belize Who Were Hit By Two Category Fives Would Agree!2007 Was Supposedly A Quiet Season.? Its Doubtful The People Of Belize Who Were Hit By Two Category Fives Would Agree! We Must Prepare Every Year As Though This Will Be Our Year!!We Must Prepare Every Year As Though This Will Be Our Year!!

46. WFO Jacksonville, FL2010 Hurricane Season OutlookSteve Letro 46 6/9/2014 The End! www.srh.noaa.gov/jax The End! www.srh.noaa.gov/jax Steve Letro: 904-741-4411 (office) 904-294-1594 (cell) 904-294-1594 (cell)