1. Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013 Maximo Torero Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division Director IFPRI Using Value Chains to Promote a Healthy Dietary Transition

2. Overview The Challenge: Income growth and market development are not sufficient to improve nutrition and food safety. The Opportunity: Can value chain research improve market performance for nutrition and food safety? A4NH Theme 1 Research: How is it embracing this opportunity?

3. THE CHALLENGE Income growth and market development are not sufficient to improve nutrition and food safety.

4. Income Growth Can Reduce Child Stunting, But Other Actions Needed A 10% increase in GDP/PC leads to a 6% reduction in stunting Source: Ruel and Alderman, 2013

5. A Changing Focus for Agriculture and Nutrition Increased calorie production and incomes no longer seen as agricultures only role in improved nutrition Focus on how agriculture influences other important determinants of child stunting – Womens empowerment, education, time – Sanitation and water quality – Nutrient density and diet quality/diversity

6. Dietary Transition Diet shift from staples base to other foods is well- known development outcome Healthy diet diversity includes vegetables, fruits, legumes, animal source foods – Documented link to improved micronutrient density and nutrition outcomes at micro level Undesirable increase in fats, sugars, processed foods now occurring at lower income levels with food system modernization Emerging double burden of over and under nutrition in many countries

7. Diet Diversification: Food Group Shares (kcal/cap/day) Starchy staples Starchy staples Nutrient Rich Foods Nutrient Rich Foods Fats and Sugars Data Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets, 2009FAO Food Balance Sheets

8. Summary: Income Growth Not Sufficient for Desired Nutrition Income not perfect driver for improved diets, nutrition – Lags in reducing stunting; emerging double burden Improved diets mean increases in diet diversity and consumption of nutrient rich foods – Micronutrient density and relationship to nutrition at micro level well-established – Potential for unhealthy diversity reinforced by structural trends in urbanization, retailing

9. THE OPPORTUNITY Can value chain research improve market performance for nutrition and food safety?

10. Why Income Growth is Not Sufficient: Market Failures and Diet Quality Consumer knowledge incomplete – nutrition, nutrient content/ safety of foods Supply constraints for nutrient rich foods – perishability, seasonality, variable nutrient content, food safety, transport Result: Under-provision of improved nutrition and food safety

11. Are There Also Public Failures? Public focus on staple crops means underinvestment in nutrient rich foods – Pulses in India Public focus on meeting food safety standards for high income market access means underinvestment in public health oriented food safety – Aflatoxins

12. Inputs into production Food production Food storage and processing Food distribution and transport Food retail and labeling Value Chain Approach Consumer Producer Supply side Develop and test solutions Demand side Characterize diets, market access and constraints to consumption of nutritious, safe foods Test solutions to improve demand for nutrition and safety along the value chain Identify production and market constraints to improved nutrition and safety Example: Increased seasonal availability of fruit Example: Nutrition education delivered by vegetable seed supplier

13. Elements of This Approach Each value chain study for a nutrient-rich food should include all of these elements: – Dietary and nutritional assessment of target population – Identification of key foods to improve / diversify diets – Mapping of the value chain for these foods – Identification of constraints to supply and to demand – Developing and/or testing interventions – Identification of enabling policies – Assessment of diet quality impact in target population

14. CChanges in Value Chains that Could Improve Nutrition Technologies – Improvements in production, storage, handling, processing, or marketing to reduce nutritional loss, improve access, or reduce safety risks, eg. Greater seasonal availability for fruits Information – Increased demand for improved safety and nutrition through education or improved incentives for different actors in the value chain, eg. Nutrition education with improved vegetable seeds – Nutritional quality reflected in prices and/or made more affordable, eg., Quality certification for locally sourced infant foods Policies and Institutions – New contractual arrangements create incentives to deliver more nutrient rich foods or to create demand for such foods, eg. Home grown school lunch programs

15. Value Chain Impacts at Market / Whole Diet Level? Develop markets for high value crops – Increase income for producers – Reduce relative prices of nutrient rich foods – Increase consumer access to healthy diversity Leverage market incentives to enhance nutritional outcomes from markets – Partnerships with private sector to direct market development towards better nutrition Can this provide the foundation for a more healthy dietary transition?

16. A4NH THEME 1 RESEARCH How is A4NH research embracing this opportunity and leveraging existing CGIAR expertise?

17. Building the A4NH Portfolio 2012 – Centers: Bioversity, IFPRI, IITA, ICRAF, WorldFish – Smallest share of A4NH budget 2013 – Seed Grants Awarded to Foster New Research, March – Workshop for Program Development, June – New Research Staff at IFPRI, September – Aflatoxin Vision 2020 Policy Briefs, November – Expanded Partnerships: AVDRC, Tufts, IDS, GAIN

18. Leveraging Production Technologies Seasonality and Vitamin C content of mango (ICRAF) Biocontrol of aflatoxin in maize and groundnut (IITA and ICRISAT) Infant food development using small fish (WorldFish) VC Research role: Test market viability and nutritional impact from these technologies

19. Leveraging the Private Sector Danone-Grameen fortified yoghurt venture – Income enhancement for poor women – Nutrition enhancement for vulnerable groups Vegetable seed suppliers in Bangladesh and Kenya – Nutrition messages with production extension – Encourage home consumption – Expand demand to support expanded supply VC Research role: Validate responsible efforts; Identify scalable opportunities

20. Leveraging Market Incentives for Reduced Aflatoxins Aflatoxins naturally occurring and can enter or multiply at any stage from production to consumption Market solutions to improve/reward control: – Testing and certification through maize millers – Alternate uses, eg., oil processing, animal feeds – Training and product testing delivered through farmer organizations – Biocontrol adoption linked to feed markets VC Research role: Test market interventions

21. Leveraging Dedicated Supply Chains Home Grown School Feeding Programs – Develop and reward local supply chains for school feeding – Promote nutrition education linked to local foods – Support child nutrition, school performance, habit formation VC Research role: measure nutrition, education, and market synergies

22. Research Finding Highlight: Health Benefits and Agricultural Contracts Experimental Evidence from Northern Senegal Research question: – Can health-related incentives be used to improve contract enforcement with small-scale agricultural suppliers? – Can existing value chain logistics be leveraged to increase health conditions in remote locations? Context: – Semi-nomadic milk producers, very remote location – Milking efforts by women, cash collected by men – Highly unreliable milk supply, particularly in dry season – Extreme level of anemia prevalence for children in the area (82% anemic, 15% severe anemic). Study – Randomized control trial amongst 430 milk supliers to te LDB Contract for « x » liters/day per lactating cows for all suppliers. Half of the producers receive iron fortified porridge for children upon satisfaction of contract on weekly basis.

23. -.1 0.1.2 Jan 27 Feb 17Mar 10Mar 31 Apr 21 May 12 Jun 2 Jun 23 Jul 14 Aug 4 Aug 25Sep 15 Note: Impact parameter estimate for separate impact estimates ran each week. Lowess smoothing function used across estimates. Dahes lines are 95% confidence interval Note: Generalized propensity score estimate used to deal with endogeneity of treatment intensity. Green and red lines are 95% confidence interval Clear and significant effect on milk delivery during dry season Order of magnitude: 10 percentage point (=30%) higher contract fulfillment in treatment group in early June. Positive dose-response effect on childrens health (Hemoglobin level) Order of magnitude: 1.25 g/dl Hemoglobin increase for 16 weeks of continuous fortified poridge intake. Research Finding Highlight: Health Benefits and Agricultural Contracts Experimental Evidence from Northern Senegal

24. Research Plan Highlight: Testing Incentives for Aflatoxin Control Research Goal: To test the demand for maize that meets an aflatoxin standard and the profitability of a certification system – Collaboration with Cereal Millers Association of Kenya – 3 rd party certified maize offered at different prices compared to untested maize – Information effects tested through random advertising campaigns

25. Looking Forward to 2015 and Beyond What policies support healthy food systems? Integrated policy studies in focus countries: – Value chains for nutrient rich foods – Nutrition information policies – Market institutions for food quality – Price and agricultural investment policies

26. THANK YOU! For more information on A4NH Value Chain Research: http://www.a4nh.cgiar.org/our-research/value-chains-for-enhanced- nutrition/ http://www.a4nh.cgiar.org/our-research/value-chains-for-enhanced- nutrition/